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I hear you but for illustration, let's say Milei loses the election and at that point Argentina has drawn $10 billion on the swap line. So the US now owns $10 billion of pesos at an exchange rate of around 1425. Then let's say that the instant Milei loses, the rate immediately pops to 1700 and...

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No doubt, South America is where currencies go to die. Brazil's has been wiped out numerous times. But if Milei loses the election, I doubt the US will hang around waiting for hyperinflation to return.

That's terrible Wally but good to know. If Chase is going down that path, it's not a good one. Walmart, Amazon and Costco prioritized the customer and became the biggest retailers in the world with massive competitive advantages. Ebay chose vendors and devolved into an online flea market...

It's also important to understand that if the US does end up spending the whole amount, it doesn't mean the money is gone. Even if the peso falls 30% by the time the US is able to exit the trade, the cost to them is $6 billion not $20 billion. There's a big difference between "worth less" and...

Not sure, my amateur guess is the guarantee does most of the heavy lifting and they don't end up having to purchase that many pesos.

Good for you, between the two of us it's already cost them $2k a year :)

Based on Google and TripAdvisor they seem to be in business still... https://www.tripadvisor.com/Restaurant_Review-g312741-d23125594-Reviews-Juan_Bautista_Parrilla_Gaucha-Buenos_Aires_Capital_Federal_District.html Terrible behavior on all sides. That is a very expensive credit card ($800+ in...

It's not like they wrote a $20 billion check to Argentina (not yet at least), and $20 billion is the US' daily budget spend so it's kind of a rounding error.

Same guy. But he writes well so the left wing elites absolutely adore him.

I think he's shooting arrows in the dark but his audience loves that kind of thing. Where was Krugman when Biden put $60 billion into the auto workers pension funds? Never was a huge pile of money so blatantly spent on a corrupt institution with the sole purpose of buying votes. In possibly...

Krugman's a very smart guy and a great writer, but he's a committed lefty and like most professors he has a desperate need to be liked by the cool kids. It really clouds his judgment as an economist. He could be right here but it sounds very small-minded and conspiratorial.

“Austerity is hard to swallow,” said Andrei Roman, chief executive officer of AtlasIntel. “And then at some point people get tired of waiting and they feel impoverished and they want to get out of it.” This has always been the challenge with Milei's agenda and also why these scandals are so...

They may well be right and from all accounts here the peso is overvalued, but currencies can remain that way for years. Valuation tells you nothing about what's going to happen to a currency near term, it's all about flows. Right now the US is pledging support and anyone shorting the peso...

I think that's a boogieman scenario Larry. If the US has to do anything at all, it won't be much because Argentina's economy is so tiny by comparison. Back in 2012 Mario Draghi said "whatever it takes" and that was enough to turn European markets around. The US backing Argentina is like...

I think it's a smart move. Relatively speaking it would take very little to support Argentina for a month or two. Billions is a rounding error for the US and it may not cost anything in the end, all Bessent has to do is pledge support and anyone short the Peso is running for the hills. If...

Yeah but c'mon Wally, they're all lazy people :)

That's one thing we all agreed on after that crypto debacle. But I guess it's easier said than done. President Biden couldn't bring himself to cut ties with his son no matter how bad the carnage, and went on to shed what was left of his reputation in the final months of office.

Still laughing about that Betsy, so true. I still think Milei's the best thing for Argentina but he's not very good at winning hearts and minds.

You were right about them being crooks Larry, seems undeniable at this point. I think they're petty crooks though compared to the Kirchner's who belong on the kleptocrat wall of shame with Chavez, Suharto and that lot. I wonder if Milei even understands what he sacrificed for such a pittance...