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According to a private study, economic activity collapsed 9.7% in March - Infobae
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Según un estudio privado, la actividad económica se desplomó 9,7% en marzo
El informe indica que algunas ramas de actividad sufrieron bajas mayores al 10%. El primer trimestre cerró con una contracción del 3,9 por ciento
www.infobae.com
May 02, 2024
The report indicates that some branches of activity suffered declines of more than 10%. The first quarter closed with a contraction of 3.9 percent
The Argentine economy has not grown since October last year (EFE)
Economic activity fell 9.7% in March, compared to the same month last year, according to a study conducted by consulting firm Orlando J. Ferreres . In the seasonally adjusted measurement, a decrease of 1.3% was recorded in relation to February, and the first quarter of the year was 3.9% below the fourth quarter of last year.
The negative data continues a long streak of “red” numbers. According to official statistics, the last time growth was recorded in the Argentine economy was in October of last year. From then on the results were always downward.
However, not all sectors are going through the same reality. Of the eleven branches of activity measured by the consulting firm, four managed to grow during the month of March. The best performing branch was “agriculture, livestock, hunting and forestry” , which registered a growth of 10.5% compared to March 2023. “Once again, the agricultural sector showed the largest expansion. Internally, the advance was contributed only by the agricultural sector (+27% yoy), offsetting the strong contraction registered in the livestock sector (-16.3% yoy),” the consultancy explained. At this point, it is important to remember that last year the effect of the drought had a high incidence, which compromised the harvests of all types of crops, leaving a very low bar for comparison.
Another sector that grew during March was “mines and quarries” , which recorded an improvement of 3.8% year-on-year in March of this year. Within this area, the growth of crude oil extraction stood out at 6.1% annually, and that of natural gas at 4.0%, which as of February once again registered positive numbers after several months in the red.
The “public administration and defense” sector (1.3%) and social and health services (1%) also grew, always compared to March 2023.
Strong declines in the economy
There were seven sectors that had a negative result in March of this year, but none fell as much as construction , which registered a decrease of 24% in the year-on-year comparison. In that case, it must be taken into account that since the new Government took office, the pace of public works has dropped substantially.The contraction of “wholesale and retail trade” was also significant , which suffered a sharp drop of 13.5% in March.
The OJF General Index
The “manufacturing industry” added to the negative results . According to the data collected by the consulting firm, this branch of activity suffered a contraction of 12.8% in the period analyzed. “The slowdown in industrial activity was strongly felt in March, closing the first quarter with a loss of 8.5%. In detail, the sectors with the largest annual falls within this branch of activity were machinery and equipment (-28.2%), basic metals (-39.1%), and non-metallic minerals (-39.7%). In contrast, the only sector that showed a higher level of activity than a year ago was the food sector, driven by the milling of oilseeds," they detailed.
“ Financial intermediation” , for its part, collapsed by 11.1% in March, while the “electricity, gas and water” sector suffered a drop of 4.5%. In the detail of electricity generation, Cammesa reported a decrease of 8.6% annually, linked to lower demand, which according to the electricity wholesaler was -7.5% for large demand, and -20.9% for residential consumption.
Finally, it is worth mentioning the drop recorded in “transport, storage and communications” (-2.9%) and “real estate activity” (-2.8%).
“In the coming months we expect the recessionary phase of the economic cycle to continue. The possible recovery of the second semester will depend on the ordering of the macro variables, particularly inflationary expectations, and will also depend on a good income of foreign currency from the large harvest and an eventual exit from the exchange rate stocks,” the consultancy commented.
