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After the reduction of the PAIS tax, importers returned to the market and there is more demand for the official dollar - Infobae
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Tras la baja del impuesto PAIS, volvieron los importadores al mercado y hay más demanda para el dólar oficial
Con volumen negociado mucho mayor al de agosto, el Banco Central abandonó las compras y cerró las últimas dos jornadas con leve saldo negativo. El impacto del cambio impositivo en el dólar financiero y por qué puede resultar neutro para las reservas
www.infobae.com
September 05, 2024
With trading volume much higher than in August, the Central Bank abandoned purchases and closed the last two days with a slight negative balance. The impact of the tax change on the financial dollar and why it may be neutral for reserves
By Virginia Porcella
Bad measures, stock market, economy, savings, purchasing power, crisis (Illustrative Image Infobae)
As expected, the increased pressure on the official exchange market following the reduction of the PAIS tax began to be felt from the first days of the month.
After closing August with a positive balance, something unusual for this period in recent years, and starting the month with a purchase of USD 65 million on Monday, the last two days closed with a slight negative balance as the Central Bank recorded sales of less than USD 10 million. The data is not very indicative of what is expected to happen during the next few weeks, when a higher level of sales is expected. The salient point, however, is the increase in the volume traded, which according to analysts would indicate a greater presence of importers.
“On Tuesday, the BCRA sold USD 7 million, with USD 207 million traded in the market and a return to a usual volume of USD 52 million in the MEP dollar segment. Meanwhile, the liquidations of agricultural exports reported by CIARA-CEC totaled USD 193.6 million, which implied an offer of almost USD 160 million in the official segment and almost USD 40 million in the CCL segment. The average of the first two days of September is again above USD 100 million, despite the drop in prices, which once again highlights the good pace of liquidation in the sector,” said the analysts at Outlier, where they advanced other preliminary conclusions of the first rounds of the month, impacted by the tax change and also by the effect of the new 2-installment calendar on importers’ access to the official exchange market.
“Firstly – the consultancy firm said – the supply of foreign currency from the rest of the sectors was very low. Secondly, it seems that some private demand for foreign currency appeared. A few weeks ago, with similar volumes of wholesale currency, the BCRA was buying. Now it is selling.”
According to the details, in August the average volume traded in the foreign exchange market was USD 164 million, which resulted in average daily purchases for the Central Bank of USD 29 million. But in the last two rounds, with volumes exceeding USD 210 million, the BCRA ended up selling between USD 6 and USD 7 million. The red is marginal but occurs in a context that is even more favorable than last month.
“We will have to follow these data closely during the next few days to see if this situation continues. If it does, it would confirm that part of the private demand was deferred in August in anticipation of the reduction of the PAIS tax, which would add pressure during September,” insisted Outlier.
Of course, the focus on the increased demand for foreign currency will have to be maintained well beyond September. Although this month marks a contrast with last month, when importers remained on hold, the truth is that the lower cost of imports will also have an effect in the medium term, with greater pressure on the official dollar market while contributing to the improvement of activity.
However, this is a virtuous and vicious circle at the same time, at least as long as the exchange rate restriction remains in force: the cheaper imports become, the easier the economic recovery becomes, which in turn demands more imports - ergo dollars - to sustain this growth. Without growth on par with the supply of dollars, the Argentine economy remains in the eternal trap in which it has been entangled for more than 10 years.
“The reduction of the PAIS tax also encourages paying for imports in the official exchange market, since the gap against the CCL widens, which may reduce demand for financial dollars. In this way, the official exchange market is becoming increasingly important for foreign trade, normalizing transactions. This could help the BCRA to reduce its rate of dollar sales in the financial market,” said Delphos Investments.
That is to say, the reserves that are not purchased on the official market due to the increased demand for imports are not sold on the financial market either, because that demand has already migrated to the official market.
