Argentina Economy Contracted in June as Recession Grinds On

[Larry]

This recession continues and very painful for everyone.

Argentina Economy Contracted in June as Recession Grinds On

Argentina’s economy unexpectedly contracted in June, shrinking for the fourth time in six months as a deep recession weighs down early signs of recovery.

www.bnnbloomberg.ca

 

[Larry]

The recession is deepening and poverty levels are majority of the population which even Milei admitted on Sunday.

Argentina Recession Deepened as Milei Shock Therapy Stung

(Bloomberg) -- Argentina’s economy sunk deeper into recession in the second quarter as ripple effects from President Javier Milei’s currency devaluation and austerity exacerbated a downturn. Most Read from BloombergCalifornia’s Anti-Speeding Bill Can Be a Traffic Safety BreakthroughAOC Proposes...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[Larry]

Argentina's economy keeps falling, Indec report shows​

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en.mercopress.com

 

[Uncle Wong]

Argentina's economy keeps falling, Indec report shows​

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en.mercopress.com

I thought the worst of it was over? This article doesn't sound like it is.

 

[Jenn]

I thought the worst of it was over? This article doesn't sound like it is.

From what my friends tell me there, it's not even close to being over. Everyone seems to be complaining lately.

 

[Uncle Wong]

Things might have bottomed out. I just saw that Mercado Libre just announced that consumption has been growing steadily since May in both units sold and total volume transacted in USD. Plus I keep seeing all these posts from locals buying electronics and stuff on Amazon. So hopefully things did bottom out and on their way up.

https://www.mercadolibre.com.ar/institucional/comunicamos/noticias/meli-trends-consumo-2024

 

[earlyretirement]

Things might have bottomed out. I just saw that Mercado Libre just announced that consumption has been growing steadily since May in both units sold and total volume transacted in USD. Plus I keep seeing all these posts from locals buying electronics and stuff on Amazon. So hopefully things did bottom out and on their way up.



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https://www.mercadolibre.com.ar/institucional/comunicamos/noticias/meli-trends-consumo-2024

Yep. Mercado Libre's CEO just posted today that they are seeing strong growth in consumption in Argentina. August 2024 just set a record for units sold on Mercado Libre in their 25 year history. They sold over 20 million products and $916 Million USD. He said the growth rate accelerated even more in September.

All VERY positive signs.

 

[James Bond]

This just shows that more and more things are sold online. I think these figures show that more than anything that everything is moving online. Does not make sense to go around and shop for stuff when you can just order it and get it the next day. First world countries were already like this. Argentina is just catching up.

 

[Carlos M.]

Take a look at the absolute dive off the cliff of the domestic demand. It is almost as bad as during COVID. Look at the fall in GDP (black line) and is only a little better vs. COVID because imports are falling sharply so that the net exports contribute positively (in pink). The recession would get better if Caputo/Milei let the peso float freely.

 

[VINO]

Take a look at the absolute dive off the cliff of the domestic demand. It is almost as bad as during COVID. Look at the fall in GDP (black line) and is only a little better vs. COVID because imports are falling sharply so that the net exports contribute positively (in pink). The recession would get better if Caputo/Milei let the peso float freely.


View attachment 7741

I did not realize that the recession was that bad! I got stuck here during Covid and everything was totally dead. You couldn't even go in the street! Alarming that we are anywhere near that level. My banker friend told me that Milei is not really a Libertarian and that the open market that is free from manipulation will force them to change their plan eventually.

 

[Larry]

My banker friend told me that Milei is not really a Libertarian

Take a look at the absolute dive off the cliff of the domestic demand. It is almost as bad as during COVID. Look at the fall in GDP (black line) and is only a little better vs. COVID because imports are falling sharply so that the net exports contribute positively (in pink). The recession would get better if Caputo/Milei let the peso float freely.


View attachment 7741

I have been warning about this recession since Milei started. It is destructive and and small and medium sized businesses are getting destroyed. This GDP is a good chart. I did not see it before. Thanks @Carlos M. for posting it. Gives you an idea how bad things are compared with Covid. The austerity measures can help with inflation but it is impossible for the country to grow like this. We know that they won't end fx control any time soon.


GDP is tanking, inflation hit 230% in 2024Aggressive fiscal reforms might help inflation, but growth is taking a beatingI agree, floating the peso would ease some pain, but we know that’s not happening anytime soon

My banker friend told me that Milei is not really a Libertarian

Your friend is correct. See this video I posted yesterday. This is one of the people Milei said he studied his principles.

 

[Jeb Spencer]

Take a look at the absolute dive off the cliff of the domestic demand. It is almost as bad as during COVID. Look at the fall in GDP (black line) and is only a little better vs. COVID because imports are falling sharply so that the net exports contribute positively (in pink). The recession would get better if Caputo/Milei let the peso float freely.


View attachment 7741

I don't thnk the recession would automatically get better by removing fx restrictions. They do it too soon and the big devaluation would cause inflation to go back up. Real wages in pesos would become even lower.