Blue dollar hits a new historical record! 1,500 to $1 USD

[Betsy Ross]

Wow. Didn't think we would hit 1,500 so quickly as we were just at 1,000 pesos a few months ago. It's accelerating. Will be interesting to see how high this heads up. This is the reason why you don't buy more than a month of pesos to cover expenses.

El dólar libre vuelve a subir, llega a los $1.500 para la venta y marca un nuevo récord histórico

El dólar “blue” asciende 35 pesos en el día. En lo que va de julio registra una suba de 130 pesos o 9,5%. La brecha cambiaria supera el 60%, la más alta en lo que va del año

www.infobae.com

 

[Finance Prof]

No telling where it will end. Now that it hit 1,500 to $1 it's more mental for some people. I know many locals that are rushing to buy dollars now as they think it will go higher. Many read that article yesterday that was very confusing about the Puts and saying that it could go to 4,000 to $1. Truth is no one knows how high it will go and you're right @Betsy Ross this is why you don't buy more pesos than you need.

 

[Vince]

Damn that was quick. Never bet against the dollar in Argentina. The peso always finds a way to disappoint you if you bet on it against the dollar.

 

[Avocado]

I guess this means that dollarization isn't coming any time soon!

And Milei isn't going to win that Nobel prize after all. 🤡🤡

 

[Digital Nomad]

I am LOVING this high blue and MEP rate! Everything feels so much cheaper now vs. a few months ago.

 

[Finance Prof]

I guess this means that dollarization isn't coming any time soon!

And Milei isn't going to win that Nobel prize after all. 🤡🤡

He might still win it eventually but considering all the issues Argentina still faces hopefully he will be a bit more humble. Seeing the exchange rate at 1,500 should give him pause.

 

[import export]

One interesting thing is that the dollar tarjeta or rate that locals have to pay to use their credit cards abroad is almost on par with the blue dollar. Before there was a bigger spread. My friends there still are not using their credit cards and instead of buying dollars when they travel abroad because of the scrutiny with AFIP when they spend. All that gets reported on Argentine credit cards.

 

[Blockchain]

It really is incredible just how much the exchange rate can move in a relatively quick amount of time. I've only been here a few weeks and can't believe how weak the peso is.

 

[crypto]

It really is incredible just how much the exchange rate can move in a relatively quick amount of time. I've only been here a few weeks and can't believe how weak the peso is.

What ever the reasons be grateful! Crypto Dollar is also at all time high. Hit 1,451 today.

 

[FuturoBA]

I thought the central bank was not printing money still?? But then who's printing the 10k notes??

 

[Digital Nomad]

I thought the central bank was not printing money still?? But then who's printing the 10k notes??

It still is I believe but they just announced they were going to stop it. I don't understand it all. I just saw this today. It sounds very convoluted but I guess they are desperate to stop the blue dollar from falling.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1812140115029827631

 

[Finance Prof]

I thought the central bank was not printing money still?? But then who's printing the 10k notes??

They are still printing pesos. I wonder what the IMF's thoughts are on this set up. I doubt they would support something like this. You really should let a currency free float and not be manipulated. It sounds like the Central Bank of Argentina wants to set up a printing press for dollars. 🤑

 

[Vince]

I need to do more investigating on this but it seems like a tremendous amount of intervention and also arbitrage with CCL. On its face it looks like the Central Bank is selling dollars in the CCL. Maybe in theory it should work but so far some things happened gone as planned. I would think the IMF would be totally against what they are doing.

 

[Larry]

I need to do more investigating on this but it seems like a tremendous amount of intervention and also arbitrage with CCL. On its face it looks like the Central Bank is selling dollars in the CCL. Maybe in theory it should work but so far some things happened gone as planned. I would think the IMF would be totally against what they are doing.

All the IMF cares about is getting paid back. Really all these banks don't care about Argentina. They just want Central Bank to have reserves so they can get paid back!

This arbitrage sounds like something that CFK would do so maybe Milei's people are learning. Maybe I am understanding this wrong but are they trying to buy dollars at the official rate and sell them at the CCL rate? Looks like the blue dollar should get killed again if so. But it's anyones guess. Every administration that has tried to control the exchange rate has not succeeded.

 

[Betsy Ross]

I thought the central bank was not printing money still?? But then who's printing the 10k notes??

It's all complicated @FuturoBA. Even here most locals don't understand everything the government and Central Bank are doing. Here is an article today. The government keeps saying, "nothing has changed" but then things change. I don't know how the markets will take this on Monday. This article is saying the central bank will buy dollars at 900 and sells at 1400. That sounds like it's too good to be true. And anything that sounds too good to be true usually is.

Desde el lunes: tras la turbulencia del dólar, ¿cómo funciona la nueva medida que anunció Milei?

El Presidente anunció que buscará eliminar la última canilla de emisión de pesos con la intención de frenar la volatilidad del tipo de cambio y contener además los precios

www.lanacion.com.ar

 

[Uncle Wong]

Every time I think I start to understand a little about the financial market and exchange rates there I get lost when the government announces yet another measure. They keep saying they will keep the 2% peg and nothing has changed. But then they change things. It's crazy.

I don't know about you but if I am a local I would have even more doubt about the future of the peso! Wouldn't this not allow them to build back up their reserves? It's all confusing. I read this article today on Bloomberg and it confirms these things that the reserve will go down. This all reminds me of the game whack a mole. Once you kill one another one pops up.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

Free Archived Version

https://archive.ph/SFUgb

 

[Wally]

Every time I think I start to understand a little about the financial market and exchange rates there I get lost when the government announces yet another measure. They keep saying they will keep the 2% peg and nothing has changed. But then they change things. It's crazy.

I don't know about you but if I am a local I would have even more doubt about the future of the peso! Wouldn't this not allow them to build back up their reserves? It's all confusing. I read this article today on Bloomberg and it confirms these things that the reserve will go down. This all reminds me of the game whack a mole. Once you kill one another one pops up.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

Free Archived Version

https://archive.ph/SFUgb

The government is totally desperate. Remember something. No matter how bad things are they will say things are ok and not to worry. Business as usual. Even when they do things like this they try to make it sounds like all is ok but truth is they have no idea how things will turn out. That would be great to be able to buy dollars at official rate and sell it at Dolar CCL!

This actually sounds like something CFK would do. Just market manipulation plain and simple. But I don't think the government has many options.

 

[Flamingo]

I saw reports today that Milei was saying today had it not been for Minister Caputo's currency controls the blue dollar would be at 3,000 pesos to $1 USD today. Is hearing these kind of things supposed to make Argentines feel comfortable or that the peso is still not overvalued at 1,500 per $1 dollar?

 

[import export]

This is a good example why all bets are off and no one knows what will happen with exchange rates. When you don't have a free floating system and the currency market is totally manipulated by the government, people don't have confidence in that country's currency. Argentina has many problems. As confident as Milei portrays himself to the public he has often said that there are too many problems and issues to fix before his term in office. He said it will probably take 40 years and he is just the first step in fixing the problem.

Governments can try to manipulate their currency but in the end the financial markets seem to find a natural equilibrium what is fair value. CFK is laughing right now.

Cristina Kirchner apuntó contra Milei y Caputo por la suba del dólar y dijo cuál es “el problema central”

La expresidenta utilizó sus redes sociales para criticar al Presidente y a su ministro de Economía, luego de que anunciaran que se irá hacia la emisión cero

www.lanacion.com.ar

 

[Finance Prof]

Every time I think I start to understand a little about the financial market and exchange rates there I get lost when the government announces yet another measure. They keep saying they will keep the 2% peg and nothing has changed. But then they change things. It's crazy.

I don't know about you but if I am a local I would have even more doubt about the future of the peso! Wouldn't this not allow them to build back up their reserves? It's all confusing. I read this article today on Bloomberg and it confirms these things that the reserve will go down. This all reminds me of the game whack a mole. Once you kill one another one pops up.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

Free Archived Version

https://archive.ph/SFUgb

Thanks @Uncle Wong for posting that Bloomberg link. It sounds like external financial community is interpreting things correctly. And usually when a President or politician says, "I have zero worry" it means they are very very scared. The fact that they have to say that zero worries means the opposite.

"Nada de pánico, cero pánico": Milei le restó importancia a la suba del dólar a $ 1.500 y dijo que la salida del cepo está cada vez más cerca

Desde Estados Unidos, el Presidente habló de la suba del dólar blue y la expectativa sobre los precios.También aseguró que las relaciones con el FMI están "excelentes".Explicó los detalles de la nueva fase del plan económico.

www.clarin.com