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Change of cycle: The increase in property prices anticipates more sales and less negotiation - La Nacion Propiedades
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Cambio de ciclo: el aumento del precio de las propiedades anticipa más ventas y menos negociación
Las propiedades acumulan siete meses consecutivos de suba y el precio del m2 de la compraventa parecería estabilizarse y ya no bajar
www.lanacion.com.ar
February 6, 2024
Properties have accumulated seven consecutive months of increases and the price per m2 of sales seems to stabilize and no longer go down.
By Maria Josefina Lanzi
In properties, the average price per square meter accumulates seven consecutive months of increase
The average price per square meter increased by 0.4% in January and has accumulated seven consecutive months of increases , 1.6% since June 2023 , according to the latest data from the Zonaprop report. According to some market experts, these numbers would confirm that a stabilization in the price per m² of property purchases is becoming increasingly visible.
The report also adds that the average price per square meter is US$2,186, registering the largest monthly increase since June 2018 . Now, if the year-on-year comparison is taken into account, the price decreases: it drops to 0.3% and the price is 21.9% below the maximum reached in 2019, when the value was US$2,800 per m².
“For now we cannot speak of recovery of concrete values, but it is observed that a floor is being reached in terms of values,” says architect José Rozados, director of Real Estate Report. It states that the data in the report is based on the offer values, that is, it shows the expectations with which a certain property is published, but it may be that the sale does not materialize for that value, so it is necessary to also analyze the demand response. In any case, he assures: “ We also noticed that in the last six months the price per m² stabilized and there was even a slight revaluation in some months. “We are reaching a point where the price is going to stabilize.”
The sustained increase over the months validates stability in sales prices
Rozados also affirms that on the supply side there is no longer an attitude of accepting sharp drops in value: “Given a price that is proposed to the owner and that he does not consider convenient, he will not be willing to sell the property for that value, because there is a certain expectation that this trend of falling prices can be stopped, stabilized and then grow .”
Soledad Balayán, director of Maure Propiedades, shares the view that we can speak of price stability and that the fall has stopped : “According to the latest ROI report with data from the first half of 2023 (the survey of real estate operations) the Property price fell by 32% compared to 2019 prices (the value per m² had a drop of 32%, compared to what was sold in 2019). What we saw was a stop to that fall and a little more stability in prices.”
The market moves and sales are made
If the supply of properties that are rented continues to increase, the supply of those for sale will decrease," shares Daniel Salaya Romera, owner of the homonymous real estate agency, and adds that " it is possible that sales closings will accelerate as The supply of properties for sale decreases and, with this, a trend could be generated in the medium term for prices to rise little by little . He assures that people buy when it is selling and even when the price starts to increase, so gradually increasing prices could be positive for increasing sales.Federico González Rouco, an economist on the Empiria team, Hernán Lacunza's consulting firm, believes that we could be facing “the eventual beginning of a recovery, but many things have to happen in the middle .” He believes that the seven months of increase in the price per m² seems like a lot, but they add up to a cumulative 1.6%, which “is little.”
Other experts point out that the figure indicated by Zonaprop for an increase in the average price per square meter is higher. This platform shows the values that are offered, but the deeds signed and finalized over the last few months by several real estate agencies indicate that the price per m² is even higher.
Diego Cazes, general director of LJ Ramos, agrees that the offer value has had the increase indicated by Zonaprop, but believes that if one looks at the operations that were carried out (beyond what is offered, which is what registers the platform), that increase was greater. “Previously, counteroffers of up to 20% less than the originally offered value were accepted. Today, since the owner negotiates less (he does not accept counteroffers much below the price he offers), it is considered that the price increased ,” he shared.
Martín Boquete, director of Toribio Achával, shares his view: “In addition to the fact that the publication prices increased by the percentages indicated by Zonaprop, the negotiation margin decreased. That is to say, the difference between the publication price and the closing price is smaller, which means that prices rose even more.” In other words, homeowners do not accept very low counteroffers from buyers. “To what Zonaprop says, I would add that they rose 2/2.5% more, according to our statistics from recent months,” Boquete added.
For his part, Javier Igarzabal, director of DIC Propiedades, points out that, regarding sales prices, “we noticed that they do begin to bounce up in some segments, but we have to see if they sell. ” And they add that the operations that were carried out in recent days continue at 2023 closing prices. In this sense, the demand response will have to be taken into account again.
The cost of construction, another protagonist
In a context of marked economic instability and transformations driven by deregulatory measures, the construction sector in Argentina faced a significant decrease in cement shipments during December 2023, marking the largest drop since the start of the pandemic. This phenomenon is observed by a significant increase in the cost of construction, measured in dollars, which impacted with an upward trend in apartment prices.In that sense, Balayán assures that the construction cost “can influence whether the price per square meter is stabilizing.” He comments that everything that sells new wells is becoming more expensive “and at the same time it puts pressure on the price of used ones.” He points out that when the cost of construction increases a lot, it is difficult for prices to fall and even leads to them increasing, because “it is becoming more expensive for you to replace the apartments: the new becomes more expensive; those used do not decrease or even increase.”
Cazes also shares that it is necessary to take into account the increase in construction costs that is taking place: “That will make the brand new apartment go up a lot in price and that will also drag the values of the used apartment up . ”
The value of the construction price increases in dollars, this impacts the cost of well departments
He also believes that when the situation in the country stabilizes and there are clearer rules of the game, people will be encouraged to buy and the value will increase further: "The speed will be according to the mood of the Argentine." He adds that when there is long-term credit, properties will also go up.
Prices in GBA North
For its part, in northern GBA, the average sales price of properties has maintained an increase since November and rose 0.2% in January. A two-room apartment with 50 m² reaches a value of US$107,427 while a three-room apartment with 70 m² costs US$160,975.The square meter is located at US$2,169, 36% higher than that of GBA west-south , which is US$1,597/m2.
The neighborhoods of La Lucila (US$3,295/m²), Vicente López (US$3,292/m²) and Olivos (US$ 2,875/m²) top the list of the most expensive neighborhoods. While Villa Libertad (US$ 836/m²), José C. Paz Oeste (US$ 899/m²) and José C. Paz Centro (US$ 904/m²) are the cheapest.
Is there a reactivation of the sector?
The property buying and selling market not only survived, but was reactivated after the debacle caused by the pandemic. If December 2023 is compared to the same month in 2022, the total number of property purchase deeds registered an increase of 7.2%.
The property purchase and sale market not only survived, but was reactivated after the debacle caused by the pandemic
The current figures are encouraging and reflect a reactivation of the sector. If the comparison focuses on the last month of the year, in December 2018, 4,656 deeds were recorded, just above the 4,560 in the last month of last year. However, this number is 42.2% below the record reached in December 2017, with 7,908 operations, one of the best years for the sector in the last decade.
But the most revealing data is that 2023 closed as the best year since 2018 , a period in which demand was still moving driven by the sending of UVA credits. With a total of 40,539 deeds, last year saw an increase of 20.1% compared to 2022, when 33,753 transactions were carried out. Regarding the average amount of the acts, in 2023 it reached $51,221,816, with a growth of 201% compared to 2022, whose average amount was $16,970,504.
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