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Claudio Zuchovicki: “I advise my children to buy a house with a mortgage because it is cheaper than renting” - Infobae
Source:
www.lanacion.com.ar
October 09, 2024
Economist Claudio Zuchovicki spoke at a real estate event about the current economic situation and provided clues for thinking about the near future
By Maria Josefina Lanzi
Claudio Zuchovicki spoke about mortgage loans and real estateSantiago Oróz
Economist and financial specialist Claudio Zuchovicki spoke at a conference organized by the Century 21 real estate agency and said that, with a mortgage loan, he prefers to own rather than rent.
“I was never pro-private property, I always preferred to have a British Treasury bond and my children to rent for life,” Zuchovicki revealed, adding: “ Now, with a mortgage loan, where rent will be cheaper, I prefer my children to take out a loan, so that they can capitalise - not for life. If the property is going to rise in price, you sell it at the end of the day, because if you are afraid of inflation to take out a loan, you have to keep in mind that rent rises in the same way.”
The economist referred to the country's economic situation and assured that the scenario has begun to improve. "Of course, it is very uneven in each sector, not everyone is doing the same, but a completely different panorama is coming," he said.
Zuchovicki spoke about mortgage loans and the Argentine economic situation Shutterstock
Zuchovicki referred to a metaphor to better exemplify the national economic plan. He explained that when a plane starts to taxi on the runway and you see the B1 sign through the window, “cross your fingers, because at that height, if it doesn’t take off, it will crash.” In this sense, he referred to Javier Milei’s famous phrase that “there is no money,” so “ where the economic plan slacks off, we all go down; no matter what happens, it cannot give in .” He explained that in economics the most important thing is to identify whether a cycle is permanent or transitory and “if it is transitory, I resist; if it is permanent, I change.” In this sense, he dared to separate ideology, what each person thinks and wants to happen, and understand what the President is looking for. “He maintains that he will maintain the fiscal surplus no matter what the cost; The surplus is empowering and is its only political ally," added the economist and stressed: " Whether we protest or not, I believe that it will not ease up; if it does, it has no place on the runway to land."
Zuchovicki also said that the markets punish consensus and explained that money has not yet come in, because there is still no credibility. “People do not believe that they will be able to lower the fiscal deficit or that they will not continue issuing, but when that is confirmed, the flow of funds will come ,” he explained. He pointed out that countries like Chile and Brazil have a fiscal deficit of two points of GDP and a country risk of 200 basis points. Ukraine, a country at war, has a country risk of 800 points and Argentina, with a fiscal surplus of 1 point of GDP, still has a country risk of 1,200. He also pointed out that Argentines have US$279 billion abroad, in addition to black money, when all Argentine companies together are worth US$90 billion. “Confidence cannot be bought or sold, it is felt or not felt; even if there is a plan, the Argentine lost that credibility.”
Zuchovicki said that "the good news is that interest rates are falling."Shutterstock
He referred to the Government's economic plan , which consists of increasing public spending to 25%, in order to be able to collect taxes for 30% of the GDP and have a surplus to pay the debt . "If I have public spending above 52% of the GDP and nobody wants to finance it, I have to collect taxes for 50% of the GDP, but can a company be profitable if you charge it 50% in taxes? The only way to be profitable is to lower taxes to 30% of the GDP ," stressed Zuchovicki.
He explained that when Javier Milei started his government, public spending was 47% of GDP and now it is at 32%, a fact that he achieved by lowering Argentina's expenses: pensions, direct investment (public works), subsidies, salaries, transfers to the provinces, etc. He points out that now he wants to take it to 25%, eliminating subsidies on transportation, electricity and gas. “Now, with inflation at 3%, he cannot continue to dilute, but needs the economy to grow. The first stage of the plan was to reduce spending and the second to increase income to reactivate the economy ,” added Zuchovicki.
He explained that GDP is calculated by adding consumption, public spending, investment and the difference between exports and imports. In this sense, he pointed out that the last part of the equation (exports minus imports) is coming forward : “Although imports opened up much more and soybeans fell in the second quarter, they have now started to improve and, for the first time in almost 15 years, Argentina is once again an energy exporter,” he said.
The economist also referred to the need to increase consumption, which requires an increase in real wages and credit, which “is a great driving force.”
Finally, Zuchovicki referred to the exchange rate and asked the audience if they had heard that the dollar, pensions, education, social services and other areas are behind. He explained the path of the economy in recent years and concluded that Argentina needs to “solve its main problem, something that I think they are going to do: the Zara index.” This is an indicator that shows that the price of a women’s blazer in different countries; in Argentina in particular, is twice as expensive as in Spain, “since 48% of everything we use in this country is taxes. For me we have to deregulate the economy, to lower the Argentine cost. If this is achieved, I think that Argentina will be one of the best countries in the world for the next generation,” he concluded.
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Source:
Claudio Zuchovicki: “Con crédito hipotecario les aconsejo a mis hijos que compren casa porque es más barato que alquilar”
El economista Claudio Zuchovicki habló en un evento de real estate sobre la situación económica actual y brindó claves para pensar el futuro próximo
www.lanacion.com.ar
October 09, 2024
Economist Claudio Zuchovicki spoke at a real estate event about the current economic situation and provided clues for thinking about the near future
By Maria Josefina Lanzi
Claudio Zuchovicki spoke about mortgage loans and real estateSantiago Oróz
Economist and financial specialist Claudio Zuchovicki spoke at a conference organized by the Century 21 real estate agency and said that, with a mortgage loan, he prefers to own rather than rent.
“I was never pro-private property, I always preferred to have a British Treasury bond and my children to rent for life,” Zuchovicki revealed, adding: “ Now, with a mortgage loan, where rent will be cheaper, I prefer my children to take out a loan, so that they can capitalise - not for life. If the property is going to rise in price, you sell it at the end of the day, because if you are afraid of inflation to take out a loan, you have to keep in mind that rent rises in the same way.”
The economist referred to the country's economic situation and assured that the scenario has begun to improve. "Of course, it is very uneven in each sector, not everyone is doing the same, but a completely different panorama is coming," he said.
Zuchovicki spoke about mortgage loans and the Argentine economic situation Shutterstock
Zuchovicki referred to a metaphor to better exemplify the national economic plan. He explained that when a plane starts to taxi on the runway and you see the B1 sign through the window, “cross your fingers, because at that height, if it doesn’t take off, it will crash.” In this sense, he referred to Javier Milei’s famous phrase that “there is no money,” so “ where the economic plan slacks off, we all go down; no matter what happens, it cannot give in .” He explained that in economics the most important thing is to identify whether a cycle is permanent or transitory and “if it is transitory, I resist; if it is permanent, I change.” In this sense, he dared to separate ideology, what each person thinks and wants to happen, and understand what the President is looking for. “He maintains that he will maintain the fiscal surplus no matter what the cost; The surplus is empowering and is its only political ally," added the economist and stressed: " Whether we protest or not, I believe that it will not ease up; if it does, it has no place on the runway to land."
Zuchovicki also said that the markets punish consensus and explained that money has not yet come in, because there is still no credibility. “People do not believe that they will be able to lower the fiscal deficit or that they will not continue issuing, but when that is confirmed, the flow of funds will come ,” he explained. He pointed out that countries like Chile and Brazil have a fiscal deficit of two points of GDP and a country risk of 200 basis points. Ukraine, a country at war, has a country risk of 800 points and Argentina, with a fiscal surplus of 1 point of GDP, still has a country risk of 1,200. He also pointed out that Argentines have US$279 billion abroad, in addition to black money, when all Argentine companies together are worth US$90 billion. “Confidence cannot be bought or sold, it is felt or not felt; even if there is a plan, the Argentine lost that credibility.”
“There has never been a crisis without a subsequent boom ”
Zuchovicki explained the cycles of economic crises and booms, and pointed out that there has never been a crisis without a subsequent boom . He said that when there is a lot of inflation, all central banks raise the interest rate, to curb consumption and create a recession. In this way, prices fall, a recession is created, but then they lower the interest rate so that people consume. “Everything we operate is a derivative of the interest rate. If it rises, it depreciates the value of assets, but the good news is that the interest rate is collapsing.”
Zuchovicki said that "the good news is that interest rates are falling."Shutterstock
He referred to the Government's economic plan , which consists of increasing public spending to 25%, in order to be able to collect taxes for 30% of the GDP and have a surplus to pay the debt . "If I have public spending above 52% of the GDP and nobody wants to finance it, I have to collect taxes for 50% of the GDP, but can a company be profitable if you charge it 50% in taxes? The only way to be profitable is to lower taxes to 30% of the GDP ," stressed Zuchovicki.
He explained that when Javier Milei started his government, public spending was 47% of GDP and now it is at 32%, a fact that he achieved by lowering Argentina's expenses: pensions, direct investment (public works), subsidies, salaries, transfers to the provinces, etc. He points out that now he wants to take it to 25%, eliminating subsidies on transportation, electricity and gas. “Now, with inflation at 3%, he cannot continue to dilute, but needs the economy to grow. The first stage of the plan was to reduce spending and the second to increase income to reactivate the economy ,” added Zuchovicki.
He explained that GDP is calculated by adding consumption, public spending, investment and the difference between exports and imports. In this sense, he pointed out that the last part of the equation (exports minus imports) is coming forward : “Although imports opened up much more and soybeans fell in the second quarter, they have now started to improve and, for the first time in almost 15 years, Argentina is once again an energy exporter,” he said.
The economist also referred to the need to increase consumption, which requires an increase in real wages and credit, which “is a great driving force.”
Finally, Zuchovicki referred to the exchange rate and asked the audience if they had heard that the dollar, pensions, education, social services and other areas are behind. He explained the path of the economy in recent years and concluded that Argentina needs to “solve its main problem, something that I think they are going to do: the Zara index.” This is an indicator that shows that the price of a women’s blazer in different countries; in Argentina in particular, is twice as expensive as in Spain, “since 48% of everything we use in this country is taxes. For me we have to deregulate the economy, to lower the Argentine cost. If this is achieved, I think that Argentina will be one of the best countries in the world for the next generation,” he concluded.
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