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Green and yellow lights of the economy, the question about the stocks and Congress: business thermometer at the Libertad Foundation - Infobae
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Luces verdes y amarillas de la economía, la pregunta sobre el cepo y el Congreso: termómetro empresario en la Fundación Libertad
En un extenso y plagado de referencias teóricas, Javier Milei pronosticó una baja de la inflación en los próximos meses y se burló de quienes dicen que no hay programa de estabilización. Los ejecutivos esperan más señales de inversión y el resultado de los debates parlamentarios
www.infobae.com
April 25, 2024
In an extensive and full of theoretical references, Javier Milei predicted a drop in inflation in the coming months and mocked those who say that there is no stabilization program. Executives await further investment signals and the outcome of parliamentary debates
By Mariano Boettner
Javier Milei, last night at the Libertad Foundation dinner
The announcement by President Javier Milei , last Monday, that his Government met a first objective of strong adjustment of public accounts was well received by the executives who attended the Libertad Foundation dinner, in which the head of State showed together with the former president Mauricio Macri and representatives of the right of the region, although in a low voice they mention some flats that, they interpret, could cloud the horizon: the continuity of the fiscal path in the coming months, the exit of the exchange rate trap and the result of the negotiations in Congress to ratify the mega DNU and approve the new limited version of the Bases Law.
Milei rounded off an extensive speech before the political and business audience that the Libertad Foundation gathered for its annual dinner. It was an exhibition that was full of theoretical references, happily interspersed with references to the furious economic situation, with passages of acid sarcasm to refer to economists and consultants who question the progress of their economic plan and the anticipation of what will happen with inflation in the next few months. It was initially presented more as a history class than a presidential speech, in which she began by talking about the origin of money in organized societies.
With an exultant mood at times, Milei and his entire speech were well received by the audience, a public sympathetic to his economic ideas and who celebrated a good number of passages from his long speech. After the closing, the head of state indulged in an extensive “hand kiss” in which he greeted many of the officials who accompanied him, among them the main members of the economic team, such as the Minister of Economy Luis Caputo with whom he met. He melted into a hug: “Where were you? “You are shy,” the president dedicated to him. Milei relies, as the backbone of the Executive Branch, on the economic management of the Treasury Palace and the Central Bank. The rest of the government areas have a second-order relevance.
Paul Quirno, Luis Caputo and Vladimir Werning (Nicolas Stulberg)
This particularity, which marks a style of government and a message of priorities, can be “a yellow light” on the traffic light, as interpreted by the CEO of an Argentine company who commented, with some bitterness, that although the process of reorganizing the The economy that La Libertad Avanza undertook is faster than he expected, the domestic market took the brunt of it and its sales levels are markedly lower in these months of deeper recession. “I think this government lacks middle managers who function better and manage,” he said, in reference to the massive march in defense of the public university this Tuesday.
“The economic team has qualified people and they are extremely interested in seeing the economy progress. The drop in activity is within what was expected. I am optimistic for the coming months but relatively optimistic for the short term, I think the recovery can begin within 3 or 4 months,” Alberto Grimoldi , a footwear businessman, told Infobae. This is one of the sectors affected by the recession and the fall in consumption due to the acceleration of inflation and the fall in the purchasing power of salaries.
Nicolás Pino, president of the Argentine Rural Society (Franco Fafasuli)
One of the most talked about topics during the evening, in Parque Norte, was the presidential speech on national television to announce the fiscal surplus for the first quarter of the year, the axis of economic policy that the libertarian government chose to revolve around the rest. of management. A smaller group of businessmen and VIP guests deliberated in a secluded area of the room, including former president Mauricio Macri , Uruguayan president Luis Lacalle Pou , former Spanish president José María Aznar , former Brazilian minister Paulo Guedes , who spent a good time talking with his Argentine counterpart Nicolás Dujovne . Another who participated in the Cambiemos government experience, Guido Sandleris , made an appearance at the dinner.
Among the businessmen present you could see Alejandro Roemmers , Juan Martín Bulgheroni (PAE), Carlos Ormaechea (Tecpetrol), Luis Galli (Newsan), Víctor Valle (Google), Armando Loson (h) (Albanesi), Alejandro Simón ( Sancor Seguros), Alejandro Lastra (Telefónica), Cristiano Rattazzi , Sebastián Braun , Gabriel Martino , Ezequiel Herszage (IRSA), Matías Campodónico (Dow), Nicolás Pino (SRA) and Enrique Cristofani (former Santander), among others. Among the economic officials were Minister Luis Caputo , his deputy Pablo Quirno and advisors Federico Furiase and Martín Vauthier . Also to the vice president of BCRA Vladimir Werning , to Milei's advisor Federico Sturzenegger and two former ministers of Macrismo, Hernán Lacunza and the aforementioned Dujovne.
The former president of the BCRA and current advisor to Milei, Federico Sturzenegger (Franco Fafasuli)
“In economic matters there are the best achievements and after a long time the country has recovered positions it had lost on the international level. Today we are recognized in the world and Argentina in these few months has substantially improved its position in public accounts,” the president of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange, Adelmo Gabbi , told Infobae . Is there any pessimistic element? this media asked. “Well, since this is an expectation, I hope this continues like this. The negative would be if it changed course. Because we have walked through the ditches and after a long time we are on the road,” he concluded.
At his side, his colleague from the Argentine Chamber of Commerce and Services (CAC), Natalio Mario Grinman , observed, seconds later: “Optimism lies in the direction this government chose. The objective, the point where you want to get to. What is zero deficit, reduction in public spending, exchange rate unification, non-issuance, etc. We are positively surprised by the drop in inflation so quickly that it was something unthinkable,” he celebrated. On the other hand, he says, is the expectation of what may happen in Congress, rocky terrain for the ruling party.
The former Minister of Economy, Nicolás Dujovne
“Many of those who make up Congress, many of the politicians, of the different parties, it is as if they do not see it. Instead of supporting the changes that Argentina needs, which we all knew was not going to be easy, which are painful structural reforms, but they are essential to move forward. In other words, it is necessary for politics to adapt and understand the times that are coming. Argentina was a patient in intensive care where the only thing he received was aspirin. Now he is in intermediate therapy receiving the correct medicine,” she concluded.
Looking ahead, other businessmen and women are wondering how the libertarian economic policy roadmap will proceed, what the next page of the playbook says. Milei, whose method is usually to cite authors from the libertarian economic tradition of economics, gave some clues about what she sees for the coming months. Less stridently than to celebrate their achievements, some businessmen wonder if the possibility of dismantling the exchange rate as quickly as the Government itself had installed has not been deflated. “I don't think they will get the dollars to do it in the short term, I see it more at the end of the year,” mentioned another executive, in frequent dialogue with businessmen from different sectors.
The businessman Alejandro Roemmers
Asked about an assessment of the first four months of management, consultant Marcelo Elizondo , specialist in foreign trade and member of the CAC, assured that “budgetary balance” is the main element to look at “because it is the mother of problems, of the Argentine macroeconomic disorders, but also because it was achieved very quickly.” “I admit that you managed to balance the budget through not only a chainsaw, but a blender and a bicycle, but in four months it couldn't be done too quickly. In four months there was not going to be a reformulation of the public sector, a tax reform, for me that is very important because that can generate something that for Argentina can be very reactivating, which is stabilization, "he considered.
“There is a stagnation in the decision-making process, in the negotiation between the ruling party and the opposition. I am excited by the spirit (of the government) there, but I am very concerned about the lack of progress, because it is politically blocked,” he concluded.
