All the Answers
Well-known member
In an increasingly sensitive financial market, sovereign bonds fell and there are more buyers of dollars - Infobae
Source;
En un mercado financiero cada vez más sensible, bajaron los bonos soberanos y hay más compradores de dólares
Entre los operadores y analistas se sintió el impacto de la marcha universitaria y también del incierto rumbo parlamentario de la Ley Bases
www.infobae.com
April 25, 2024
The impact of the university march and also of the uncertain parliamentary direction of the Bases Law was felt among operators and analysts.
By Luis Beldi
Photo NA: MARIANO SANCHEZ
Tuesday's march left its mark and strengthened the opposition, which transferred the previous day's prominence to Congress by trying to impose a financing law on universities that had no result.
But what unsettled the market, which was very sensitive after Tuesday's episodes, is the paralysis of the Bases Law that, every time it is going to be discussed, encounters an obstacle. That is why we can talk about a financial week before and after the university march.
Sovereign bonds, which are the broadest sample of how investors see the economy because it even involves funds from abroad, had declines of up to almost 3%. Such was the case of the most traded bond, the AL30D. The GD30D, the Global bonds with foreign law that are among those that most represent investors, lost 1.8%.
The country risk increased by 31 units (+2.6%) to 1,205 basis points. It is the second consecutive round of bonus reductions. Yesterday's was the most pronounced. It should be noted that the rise in the rate of return on US Treasury Bonds to 4.65% did not help.
In the exchange market there were more sellers than buyers, but the amounts traded were small. At closing, the MEP rose $6.97 (+0.9%) to $1,015.54 and the cash with settlement (CCL) advanced $1.17 (+0.2%) to $1,053.98. The exchange, the difference between MEP and CCL, is high; 4.5%
The “blue” followed the trend and increased $5 to $1,035. In the Free Exchange Market (MLC), the retraction of exporters continued and only USD 371 million was operated, of which USD 109 million was purchased by the Central, which was able to pierce the ceiling of 30 billion by raising reserves by USD 23 million to USD 30,079 million.
According to Andrés Reschini's F2 consulting firm, “so far this month the accumulated volume is USD 6,455 million, while for the previous year in the same period USD 5,690 million were operated. The 13% increase in business shows an incontrovertible reality since the current harvest would be 60% larger than the last one. The fall in the international value of commodities and delays due to bad weather play against it, in addition to the fact that producers are probably waiting for better conditions both in international price and in the exchange rate.”
Bonds in pesos had different behaviors. The CER curve was recovered. According to Nicolás Cappella, a trader from Investing in the Stock Market, “we did not notice large sales orders in some assets such as TX26. The day before, at the end, the buying side seemed to bulge more.”
The TX26, TZX26 and TZX27 marked increases of almost 4%. At the end of the round, according to Cappella “rumors began to be heard of new rate cuts. Rumors are rumors, but high-frequency inflation data allows these speculations to be supported. “Alphacast marked -0.8% in inflation and -1.8% in core for this last week.”
Meanwhile, the market was preparing for today's bidding where it is ruled out that the Capitalization Letters (LECAP) will be the most sought after. The one that expires in March 2025 and for the Boncer of March 2026 there are bids, advance purchase options from the Central Bank. The entities are the ones who choose when to liquidate them. The bets are on the LECAP cut-off rate given the imminent possibility of lowering rates. Investor forecasts are between 4.2% and 4.5%.
For the financial analyst and agribusiness expert, Salvador Vitelli, “if they achieve good adhesion, mainly from private parties, it would be a good time to stop placing purchase options in the market.”
The stock market had a negative turn. The Merval index of the leaders lost 3.5% in pesos and 3.6% in dollars. The banks were the most punished papers. Macro gave up 5.6% and BBVA, 5.35%.
ADRs - certificates of holdings of Argentine shares listed on the New York Stock Exchange - had a negative turn. Here also the banks were the worst performers. Macro fell 5.9% and Supervielle and BBVA, 5.8%.
For today, attention will be focused on the Treasury Bond tender where more than $2.75 billion must be raised to be able to purchase bonds from the Central Bank with the surplus. The monetary authority on Tuesday bought $300 billion of TZDX5, a bond that adjusts for the value of the dollar (linked dollar). If the Treasury buys them, it will deliver pesos and leave less liquidity in the market.
