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In April, inflation ended in single digits for the first time in 5 months, according to private consulting firms - Infobae
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En abril la inflación finalizó en un dígito por primera vez en 5 meses, según las consultoras privadas
En el Gobierno mantienen la cautela por el impacto de los incrementos en servicios públicos. Ayudan la marcha atrás en las cuotas de prepagas y la deflación en alimentos
www.infobae.com
April 30, 2024
The Government remains cautious about the impact of increases in public services. The reversal in prepaid installments and deflation in food help
By Agustín Maza
In supermarkets, the increases show a clear slowdown and in some cases deflation. EFE/ Enrique García Medina
Surveys by private consulting firms showed that April inflation was in single digits for the first time after five consecutive months in double figures. However, the Government remains cautious about the effect that increases in public services may have on the Indec Consumer Price Index (Indec) , official data that will be known in the middle of next month.
Official expectations for May do place the variation of the CPI in one digit and a continuity in the path of deceleration supported by the collapse of private consumption . The core , which excludes regulated and seasonal, will continue to decline and in some cases already shows zero weekly variations.
The price survey for Greater Buenos Aires by the consulting firm C&T showed a monthly increase of 8.7% in April, “the lowest trend in recent months.” In turn, core inflation, which leaves aside regulated and seasonal prices, was 6.9% in the month, the lowest since July of last year. The most important category, food and beverages, rose 6.8% in the month, with a great predominance of baked goods, meats and dairy products.
This data brought the interannual variation to 298.1 percent. “We estimate that inflation at the national level will be lower than in the GBA due to the greater impact of tariffs,” said the consultancy.
The Government expects inflation to reach single digits in May. REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian
"After the largest increase in the first week of the month, in which the impact of increases in regulated prices (gas, water and education) is computed, the C&T CPI registered practically zero weekly variations in the following three weeks," they highlighted.
On the other hand, C&T commented that one of the items that maintained increases above average. An increase of 19 percent was planned for April. The Ministry of Commerce ordered an early protection measure, following the ruling of the National Commission for the Defense of Competition (CNDC) in the cartelization investigation, which forced companies to lower the prices of their health plans by 26%. average. “This change has a direct impact of 1.5 percentage points on April inflation,” they explained.
The director of Eco Go , Marina Dall Progetto , had recently referred to this point in an interview with Radio Rivadavia: “Between December and January almost 90% of prices rose every week. Now that percentage has dropped to 40 percent. That is, there are still increases but not every week. And in fact, some fall. For this reason, we estimate that April inflation would be between 8% and 9%, but if the rise in prepaid bills does not ultimately impact because they roll back the increases, it will be in the order of 7%."
The economist maintained that for inflation to go down “there is an exchange rate anchor, since the official dollar is moving at 2% monthly. And to that is added an extraordinarily very recessive context, with very aggressive sales declines, of up to 50 percent.” Added to this process was the “decomposition of workers' income” that was “very partially” compensated in recent months.
Food inflation in supermarkets shows a clear slowdown. (LCG)
For Invecq , inflation continued to slow in April. The CPI prepared by the consulting firm indicated that inflation corresponding to the month of April was 9.5% monthly.
The evolution of the “food and beverages” category only awakens optimism in the official ranks. In the third and fourth week of the month, many consulting firms measured deflation and some very slight increases. This is key for now to significantly lower core inflation, which in March was 9.4% but would have a significant additional reduction this month.
In this regard, the consulting firm LCG mentioned: “In this recessive framework, food inflation in April marked a clear slowdown, even with deflation in some products. The LCG Price Survey had significantly lower records than those of March and, once the increases in regulated prices are computed, we see a non-negligible probability that April inflation will be in single digits.”
“Assuming that in the last week of April the increase in food prices remains at 0.7% weekly, the month would close with an average increase of 3.2%. This imposes 1 pp of inflation, to which must be added the impact of the increases in gas (+211%, 0.8 pp) and electricity (+181%, 3.4 pp) this month. Our retail inflation projection for April is around 9% monthly, breaking double digits for the first time in 5 months,” they projected.
Presentation of the BCRA “Argentina stabilization program: progress and perspectives”
Inflation peaked in December (25.5%) in the midst of the devaluation and since then it has been in sharp decline: January 20.6%, February 13.2% and March closed at 11 percent. April would be in the 9 percent area according to private surveys. For the remainder of the year, bond yields in pesos showed that investors expect an average of 5% monthly until the end of the year .
The trajectory is in line with the speech to investors that Milei gave at the Libertad Foundation dinner. There she highlighted that the adjustment of the Treasury and BCRA deficit will deepen the slowdown, which began from 25.5% monthly in December and reached 11% in March.
“Both the analysts and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) , when we arrived, were expecting inflation of 250 percent. In an optimistic case. Well, today the Fund expects Argentina's inflation this year to close at 150 percent. For it to close at 150% between now and the end of the year, average inflation has to be 5 and a half. In other words, by the end of the year it is clear that the inflation rate, given where we are starting, is going to be well below 5 percent. “We are ending inflation,” stated the President.
