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Indec publishes February inflation today: analysts predicted 15% but the Government expects lower data - Infobae
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El Indec publica hoy la inflación de febrero: los analistas pronosticaron un 15% pero el Gobierno espera un dato menor
El dato sería bien recibido en el Gobierno en medio de la profunda recesión que atraviesa la economía y brindaría oxígeno al oficialismo en la negociación con los gobernadores por los puntos fiscales de la Ley de Bases
www.infobae.com
March 12, 2024
The consensus of private consulting firms points to 15.8% for last month, although some private registries are below that percentage.
Employees of a supermarket organize products on the shelves, today, in Buenos Aires (Argentina). EFE/ Juan Ignacio Roncoroni/Archive
Although there are private estimates in the market that placed it above 16%, INDEC will announce February inflation, which, according to analyst consensus, will be around 15% monthly. These are estimates slightly corrected after the latest data from the Market Expectations Survey (REM) prepared by the Central Bank published last week. There was a drop in inflation expectations, but even so, the expected indicator for today is 15.8 percent.
The Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, dared to announce in a television interview that the CPI for last month would be “closer to 10% than 20%.” Although this is not what most private estimates indicate, even from those consulting firms that survey prices, the Government continued to maintain that statement in the last few hours. The official expectation of a greater drop in inflation is reinforced with the decision of the Central Bank known last night to lower the monetary policy interest rate from 110% to 80% (TNA) .
The inflation data from the City of Buenos Aires that was released last week seems to provide arguments in this regard. This record stood at 14.1%, with a strong impact from the increase in the costs of financial services (30%) and also from the adjustment of rates, particularly transportation, which jumped 21% after the increase applied by the Government in the train and bus ticket.
Even so, the average was below 15%, which encouraged official expectations of a figure even lower than the Buenos Aires figure. This is because the rate correction usually has a higher incidence in the metropolitan area (AMBA), with more weight even in the City than in the Buenos Aires suburbs. Other preliminary data would also corroborate the forecast of a relatively low figure, at least 6 points below January: despite the fact that some consulting firms such as Analytica, the measurement of food inflation - the most heavily weighted division in the CPI - showed 15%, for other measurements the result was 11%, in the case of C&T Consultores or 14.1% for the Institute of Social, Economic and Political Research that prepares the Neighborhood Price Index in the Conurbano. The latter usually captures a somewhat larger increase since it does not take on large sales areas that tend to moderate increases thanks to their greater financial capacity.
In any case, the economic analysts consulted by the Central Bank in the REM indicated that they expect inflation of 15.8% for February, 8.5% for June, and 210% for 2024. In all cases, these data They realize that the consultants corrected their inflation expectations downwards in relation to the previous survey.
In detail, 15.8% for February implied a reduction of 2.2 percentage points compared to the previous REM and 14.3% for March of 1.1 percentage point. Although in this survey it is expected that inflation in March will be below February, the truth is that the first measurements indicate that the opposite could happen.
In any case, for April, a drop of 2 points is expected, the same as for May. The single-digit rate is expected only in June, with 8.5%. In the measurement for the next 12 months, analysts expect a 146.9% increase, which represents 36.3 percentage points less than what was forecast last month.
