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Inflation: How much did it reach in August and what is projected for this month? - Infobae
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Inflación: a cuánto llegó en agosto y qué se proyecta para este mes
Luego de ubicarse en 4% en julio, los precios minoristas habrían continuado una tendencia descendente el mes pasado. Qué estiman las principales consultoras privadas para septiembre, tras la baja del impuesto PAIS
www.infobae.com
September 02, 2024
After standing at 4% in July, retail prices would have continued a downward trend last month. What do the main private consulting firms estimate for September, after the reduction of the PAIS tax?
Food and beverages rose 2.3%, less than in July, according to C&T (Illustrative Image Infobae)
While waiting for the publication of the Indec Consumer Price Index ( CPI ), the different consulting firms estimate that inflation in August was slightly below the figure for July, when it reached 4%. For September, expectations are placed on the reduction of the PAIS Tax , which is in force since this Monday, since the Government expects that it will translate into a drop in prices.
The Central Bank's Market Expectations Survey (REM) estimated that inflation would reach 3.8% in August. Private estimates suggest a similar figure.
According to C&T for the GBA region, retail prices showed a monthly increase of 3.8% in August. With this data, the twelve-month variation was reduced to 238.8%, the lowest so far this year.
Transportation was the sector with the greatest increase due to the rise in taxi prices in CABA and buses . The rise in fuel and car insurance prices was also notable .
Evolution of retail inflation since January 2022 (C&T)
Health also increased above average due to the combination of the adjustment in prepaid health insurance and the increase in drug prices, although it moderated compared to the previous month.
Home equipment and maintenance rose slightly more than average, driven mainly by cleaning products.
Food and beverages rose 2.3%, less than in July, but with great disparity in its components. On the one hand, there were very significant decreases in vegetables and fruits, after the strong increases in July, and on the other, significant increases in most of the rest of the items, including meats, dairy products, baked goods and beverages.
EcoGo , for its part, estimated that the CPI for August would be 4.1% monthly. Meanwhile, in the fourth week of the month, food prices registered an increase of 0.8%, marking a slight acceleration compared to the previous week. With this data and considering a projected increase for the last week of 0.6%, inflation in food consumed within the home would rise to 3.7% in August. Incorporating the increases recorded in food consumed outside the home (4.5% projected for the month), the indicator rises to 3.8%.
Facimex Valores projected inflation of 4% and the Fundación Libertad y Progreso , of 4.4%. Equilibra 's estimate is the most optimistic, with 3.6%, both at the general level and at the core level.
The latter consultancy firm indicated that the largest increase of the month was in the Education sector, with a rise of 5.2%, followed by Housing, water, light and electricity (+5.1%), Transport (+4.7%) and restaurants and hotels (4.3%). Within the Regulated sectors, the increase in Public Transport stands out, with a jump of 10.1%, and electricity and gas, with 4.0%.
National inflation for August by chapters (Equilibra)
Regarding food and beverages, these would have advanced by 3.4%, with notable increases in vegetables (4.6%), dairy products and eggs (4%), meat and derivatives (3.8%) and oils and fats (3.6%).
Variation in food, regulated and seasonal prices during August (Equilibra)
Expectations for September due to the reduction of the PAIS Tax
Regarding expectations for September after the reduction of the PAIS tax from 17.5% to 7.5%, economist Camilo Tiscornia , from C&T, said: “The reduction of this tax obviously falls on imported products, so the inflationary impact would have to be sought within the CPI, directly in those goods that are imported. Secondarily, it could favor the reduction of some prices that use imported inputs, but I see that as a little more remote.”“Prices will not necessarily fall in the same proportion as the PAIS tax. Assuming that the entire tax is transferred, we believe that there could be a drop in inflation of more or less half a point. Maybe a little more if other factors are taken into account, but approximately half a point,” he added.
Meanwhile, an EcoGo report stated that “the reduction of the country tax is equivalent to a 9% appreciation in the dollar for imported goods. This, all else being equal and taking into account a 9.5% share of imports in GDP, would have a direct impact of 0.9 percentage points on the price index. Obviously, the final impact will depend on the dynamics of margins in a context of greater pressure on other costs, and fundamentally on the tariff agenda and fuel prices.”
“In this regard, this week we learned of the 3% increase in fuel prices due to the tax increase (7% in CABA), the new increase in gas and electricity rates of 4.5% on bills and the back and forth with CABA and PBA over who is responsible for subsidies for buses that are not interjurisdictional. Overall, the first projection for September would put inflation at 3.6% monthly, taking into account the statistical drag left by August of 1.2%,” he specified.
Private consultants estimate that the impact on prices of the reduction of the PAIS tax will be minimal, but the Government insists that it will be reflected in the September index
For its part, LCG stated: “The impact on inflation is difficult to estimate: it will depend on the cost structure of the different goods and services that incorporate imported goods, and on the degree of competition that the rest present to enable or not the recomposition of profit margins. We understand that it will not be significant, we do not expect nominal price reductions , in any case a slowdown in scheduled adjustments.”
The 1816 consultancy firm indicated: “The clearest impact should be seen in wholesale prices, not only of imported products that have a weighting of 7.3% in the Indec IPIM and that had already been rising below the rate of the crawling peg since March, but also of national manufactured products that have an imported cost component.” It added that “the magnitude of the transfer to prices is inherently difficult to estimate for the simple fact that in our economic history we have no experience of nominal appreciation in a managed exchange rate regime.”
On the other hand, it should be noted that several increases have already been confirmed for this month that will put upward pressure on the CPI. In detail, electricity and gas will rise by an average of 4%; users of Agua y Saneamientos Argentinos SA (AySA) will pay 4.48% more for rates for drinking water and sewage services; fuels will increase by an average of 3% nationwide and 7% in CABA; prepaid health plans, between 4.5% and 5.8% depending on the company; among others.
