Inflation Is Falling, But Argentines 'Are Not Yet Better Off': Milei's Gamble Under Fire

[earlyretirement]

The inflation rate in the City of Buenos Aires (CABA) was 3.1% in January, according to the Buenos Aires City Consumer Price Index (IPCBA).

Over the past 12 months, it accumulated a rate of 100.6%, and it decreased sharply for the second consecutive month, having come from 136.7% in December to nearly 180% in November.

This reduction in year-over-year inflation represents a significant slowdown in the pace of price increases, influenced by various sectors of the consumer basket.

The sectors that contributed most to inflation in January were:

Housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels, Food and non-alcoholic beverages, Restaurants and hotels, and Transportation.

Regarding the monthly variation, restaurants and hotels recorded a 6.0% increase in January, while goods and services in general rose by 1.4% and 4.3%, respectively. This dynamic reflects a trend toward price stabilization in some sectors, although inflation remains a significant economic challenge in the region.

 

[Larry]

I'm glad to hear that Uber prices in BA have doubled. They were absurdly cheap five months ago, almost felt like I was stealing from them.

Never understand people cheering on price increasing doubling. I don't understand it. Maybe you have a lot of $$$ but everyone locally that depends on affordable transportation is paying the price of high prices.

restaurants and hotels recorded a 6.0% increase in January,

I told you that prices at restaurants keep going up. 6% increase in January alone. That is disturbing on top of already high prices.

 

[BuySellBA]

I told you that prices at restaurants keep going up. 6% increase in January alone. That is disturbing on top of already high prices.

You are correct @Larry that restaurant inflation is still continuing upwards. Several categories are still very high.

 

[oil rush]

You are correct @Larry that restaurant inflation is still continuing upwards. Several categories are still very high.

View attachment 8632

It doesn't just seem like restaurants but inflation in general. Looks like it is heading back up. I don't believe the government it's only 2.4% but this official numbers shows 2.4% for February which is more than the month before.

 

[enbits]

It doesn't just seem like restaurants but inflation in general. Looks like it is heading back up. I don't believe the government it's only 2.4% but this official numbers shows 2.4% for February which is more than the month before.

View attachment 8897

It'll continue to drop in April. This inflation drop is something rarely seen in Arg. But also a lot of taxes need to be removed once the govt puts the central bank in shape. This will allow restaurants to have less tax pressure hence reduce costs.

 

[Vero]

It'll continue to drop in April. This inflation drop is something rarely seen in Arg. But also a lot of taxes need to be removed once the govt puts the central bank in shape. This will allow restaurants to have less tax pressure hence reduce costs.

I think restaurants even with less taxes will keep raising prices up. They need to move prices down to get more business but many are going out of business now.

They just reduced in July for clothes import taxes. Let's see if prices come down. Greedy stores always price higher. Restaurants if they think inflation will go back up they keep pricers high!

 

[Larry]

It'll continue to drop in April. This inflation drop is something rarely seen in Arg. But also a lot of taxes need to be removed once the govt puts the central bank in shape. This will allow restaurants to have less tax pressure hence reduce costs.

But the numbers are a lie! It is not the number they say. Beef prices went up 10% to 15% just last month alone.

The increases were primarily driven by increases in housing, electricity, gas and other fuels (3.7 percent), followed by food and non-alcoholic beverages (3.2 percent), which were propelled by sharp increases in meat and meat-related products.

Most cuts of meat recorded monthly hikes of above 10 percent.

Consumer prices rose 2.4% in February, reveals INDEC

Inflation inches up, rising 0.2 points from 2.2% recorded previous month; Prices up 2.4% in first two months of year, by 66.9% over last 12 months.

www.batimes.com.ar

 

[enbits]

But the numbers are a lie! It is not the number they say. Beef prices went up 10% to 15% just last month alone.

The increases were primarily driven by increases in housing, electricity, gas and other fuels (3.7 percent), followed by food and non-alcoholic beverages (3.2 percent), which were propelled by sharp increases in meat and meat-related products.

Most cuts of meat recorded monthly hikes of above 10 percent.

Consumer prices rose 2.4% in February, reveals INDEC

Inflation inches up, rising 0.2 points from 2.2% recorded previous month; Prices up 2.4% in first two months of year, by 66.9% over last 12 months.

www.batimes.com.ar

I think you don't understand how inflation works. Please do some research.

 

[Larry]

I think you don't understand how inflation works. Please do some research.

I know how it works. I assume you don't live in Argentina and probably haven't for a while. Argentina has been lying about inflation in Argentina for decades. Not too different now.

Prices on everything have exploded up.

 

[Betsy Ross]

I know how it works. I assume you don't live in Argentina and probably haven't for a while. Argentina has been lying about inflation in Argentina for decades. Not too different now.

Prices on everything have exploded up.

It's true that the government in the past has lied about inflation but that is different than now. Nestor replaced key officials and totally made up numbers. Private estimates were way off. Now private estimates may be a little off. Even the IMF officially censured Argentina in 1013 demanding more reliable statistics. I remember in 2011 INDEC reported 10% inflation and private estimates were saying 25%. 2014 INDEC said 10% to 15% and it was more like 40%. That isn't going on now like back then.

It probably is higher than it is. But nothing like before. The same thing happens in the USA where they take out key baskets of things people spend like energy and food which are two HUGE things to include. Healthcare and housing costs are typically underreported. Rent, medical costs and homeownership costs are typically much higher than what CPI reflects.

I think the same thing happens in Argentina with their index. Not saying the numbers aren't higher than they are but they aren't being manipulated like the Kirchner's were doing.

 

[Piranha]

I think you don't understand how inflation works. Please do some research.

But hasn't Argentina played around with inflation in the past? I heard it has constantly lied about their inflation numbers.

It's true that the government in the past has lied about inflation but that is different than now. Nestor replaced key officials and totally made up numbers. Private estimates were way off. Now private estimates may be a little off. Even the IMF officially censured Argentina in 1013 demanding more reliable statistics. I remember in 2011 INDEC reported 10% inflation and private estimates were saying 25%. 2014 INDEC said 10% to 15% and it was more like 40%. That isn't going on now like back then.

It probably is higher than it is. But nothing like before. The same thing happens in the USA where they take out key baskets of things people spend like energy and food which are two HUGE things to include. Healthcare and housing costs are typically underreported. Rent, medical costs and homeownership costs are typically much higher than what CPI reflects.

I think the same thing happens in Argentina with their index. Not saying the numbers aren't higher than they are but they aren't being manipulated like the Kirchner's were doing.

This is what I heard. I think everyone agrees inflation has gone down but everyone is saying the government is artificially keeping Argentina's peso expensive so I guess once it adjusts it will go back up. Seems like it's already picking back up. From this Bloomberg article.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-14/argentina-disinflation-stalled-in-february-despite-peso-slowdown

 

[MikeYoung]

But hasn't Argentina played around with inflation in the past? I heard it has constantly lied about their inflation numbers.


This is what I heard. I think everyone agrees inflation has gone down but everyone is saying the government is artificially keeping Argentina's peso expensive so I guess once it adjusts it will go back up. Seems like it's already picking back up. From this Bloomberg article.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-14/argentina-disinflation-stalled-in-february-despite-peso-slowdown

I guess we will know soon. Either things are going to go well in the elections or really bad. It sounds like the easy stuff has already been done. I'm not sure how much more they can do. Seems like the government did good getting a fiscal surplus and balancing the budget and cutting spending. No montetary insurance, really activated the chainsaw and fired a lot of government employees. Cut devaluation from 2% to 1% each month and the best we can do is annual inflation of 30%.

That is great progress from 200% annualized inflation but now what?

 

[earlyretirement]

Food prices are jumping up again. And it will likely pick up the pace now.


In the third week of March 2025, food prices in Argentina experienced a significant increase of 2.4% compared to the previous week, according to a report by the consulting firm LCG.

This increase was the most important in the last eight months and occurred after a week of stability in prices during the second week of the month. The monthly average increase in food prices was 3.2%, reflecting an acceleration in the pace of increases in the early days of March.

The sectors most affected by these increases were meats, dairy products, and beverages and infusions. Beverages and infusions for home consumption increased by 5%, sugar, honey, sweets, and cocoa by 4.2%, meats by 3.5%, and dairy products and eggs by 2.5%.


These increases jeopardize the disinflation process that the government had managed to advance in previous months, as meats and dairy products account for 70% of the price increases in recent weeks.


Over the past four weeks, the cumulative inflation in food reached 3.4%, driven mainly by the increase in meats and dairy products. This surge in food prices could slow down disinflation, which is a central concern for the government, especially considering that February's inflation was 2.4% and accumulated 66.9% over the past 12 months.

 

[MikeYoung]

I just posted this on another section but I saw your post earlyretirement. Food prices ARE jumping up!

I am here now in BA and prices are all over the place! Jumping around. Maybe with the blue jumping up this past week stores and restaurants are raising their prices. They were fairly stable for a few months but I noticed things change in days! I went to a verduleria and 2 kg of tomatoes was 1000 pesos one day and then the same place had 1 kg for 2200 pesos! I bought some chicken and one day it was about 18,000 pesos and the next was almost 29,000 pesos.

It probably will get crazy until elections or the IMF money comes in. Inflation is heading back up.

 

[IrishLad]

I just posted this on another section but I saw your post earlyretirement. Food prices ARE jumping up!

I am here now in BA and prices are all over the place! Jumping around. Maybe with the blue jumping up this past week stores and restaurants are raising their prices. They were fairly stable for a few months but I noticed things change in days! I went to a verduleria and 2 kg of tomatoes was 1000 pesos one day and then the same place had 1 kg for 2200 pesos! I bought some chicken and one day it was about 18,000 pesos and the next was almost 29,000 pesos.

It probably will get crazy until elections or the IMF money comes in. Inflation is heading back up.

Unfortunately this happens when the blue jumps up but I noticed prices going up even before last week. Beef prices they jumped up over the past few weeks.

I believe unless blue dollar comes to reasonable levels tourism is dead. Many restaurants are totally dead that are normally full. These restaurants have to be feeling the pain. Foreigners aren't coming and locals are cutting back on their spending at restaurants and cafes.

 

[Finance Prof]

Unfortunately this happens when the blue jumps up but I noticed prices going up even before last week. Beef prices they jumped up over the past few weeks.

I believe unless blue dollar comes to reasonable levels tourism is dead. Many restaurants are totally dead that are normally full. These restaurants have to be feeling the pain. Foreigners aren't coming and locals are cutting back on their spending at restaurants and cafes.

Noticed the same thing. I went over to Mirasol last night and it is usually very busy on the weekends and there was almost no one there. Usually it is packed with people from the Four Seasons next door and it was completely empty at 10 PM. Was shocking to see.

Unfortunately the negative effect of the IMF bail out package is that it probably will keep prices expensive for a few years unless the peso blows up. The Central Bank is selling dollars to try to keep the peso from falling. Not sure the IMF will agree with them to continue with the strategy. Inflation will probably jump again. If so, Milei is probably not going to finish out his term.

 

[Jenn]

Yikes it sounds like inflation is jumping back up. Insane how much food prices go up there each month in Argentina.

Argentina: Skyrocketing food prices threaten gov't inflationary targets

Argentina is experiencing a sharp increase in food prices, complicating the government's goal of keeping inflation close to 2%. Private consulting firms report that food prices rose by approximately 3.2% to 4% so far this month, with total inflation projected to be between 2.4% and 3%. Key...

en.mercopress.com

 

[gammer]

Yeah, inflation here is crazy, and it’s not just food, clothing has basically become a luxury. In theory, taxes are supposed to go down, which should help lower prices, but honestly, I don’t see that happening anytime soon. Prices go up way faster than salaries, so people just keep losing purchasing power.

Qué va a pasar con el precio de la ropa y el calzado tras la baja de los aranceles para importar

Las estimaciones proyectan una reducción leve en el costo final al consumidor, mientras que el sector productivo se encuentra en alerta

www.infobae.com

 

[BuySellBA]

Inflation Increases Planned in Argentina for April 2025

Inflation continues to go up in Argentina.
Various sectors in Argentina are experiencing significant price and tariff adjustments.

Below is a summary of the main increases:

Fuels: Increased by 1.75% nationwide, accumulating a 5.85% rise so far this year. This adjustment is linked to the increase in the Liquid Fuels Tax and the Carbon Dioxide Tax.

Electricity: A 1.7% increase, reflecting regular tariff updates.

Water: Increased by 1%, in line with standard adjustments.

Gas: A rise of 1.8%, likely associated with inflation and distribution costs.

Healthcare (Prepaid Plans): An increase of up to 2.8%, affecting medical coverage costs.

Rentals (ICL):

Year-over-year: Increased by 116.85%, more than doubling compared to the previous year.

Quarterly: Adjustment of 8.73%.

Semiannual: Increase of 23.33%.

Public Transportation (Province of Buenos Aires): A 4.2% increase in bus fares, adjusted for inflation plus an additional margin.

Private Schools (Province of Buenos Aires): An average increase of 3% in tuition fees.

Telecommunications: Adjustments of up to 3.2%, impacting services like phone and internet.

These increases reflect the impact of inflation and regulatory adjustments across various essential sectors.

 

[Piranha]

Inflation Increases Planned in Argentina for April 2025

Inflation continues to go up in Argentina.
Various sectors in Argentina are experiencing significant price and tariff adjustments.

Below is a summary of the main increases:

Fuels: Increased by 1.75% nationwide, accumulating a 5.85% rise so far this year. This adjustment is linked to the increase in the Liquid Fuels Tax and the Carbon Dioxide Tax.

Electricity: A 1.7% increase, reflecting regular tariff updates.

Water: Increased by 1%, in line with standard adjustments.

Gas: A rise of 1.8%, likely associated with inflation and distribution costs.

Healthcare (Prepaid Plans): An increase of up to 2.8%, affecting medical coverage costs.

Rentals (ICL):

Year-over-year: Increased by 116.85%, more than doubling compared to the previous year.

Quarterly: Adjustment of 8.73%.

Semiannual: Increase of 23.33%.

Public Transportation (Province of Buenos Aires): A 4.2% increase in bus fares, adjusted for inflation plus an additional margin.

Private Schools (Province of Buenos Aires): An average increase of 3% in tuition fees.

Telecommunications: Adjustments of up to 3.2%, impacting services like phone and internet.

These increases reflect the impact of inflation and regulatory adjustments across various essential sectors.

Prices keep going up. Albeit at slower pace but they keep going up.