MIchelNF
Member
Analysts believe that most of the increase in food prices occurred in December. After January's inflation data was released, which showed a consumer price index (CPI) of 20.6%, analysts believe that the cost of living in February will be below 15%. There are doubts about what may happen with the dollar and the services that remain to be adjusted. Economist Paula Gándara, from Adcap Grupo Financiero, pointed out that "January's inflation figure of 20.6% was in line with expectations", while "the core component dropped to 20.2%, from 28.3% in December". "However, the regulated ones rose in January to 26.6%, from 20.7% in December. The market has been discounting the slowdown in inflation since mid-January, when high-frequency indicators began to be published below expectations. Today, expectations are around 15% for February and 10% for March", says Gándara.
Inflation: what's ahead for February
Food and beverages: in the first days of February, increases moderated significantly. In the second week, the increase increased.
Dollar: it would remain with a crawling peg of only 2%. Doubts arise regarding the exchange rate appreciation derived from the differential with the CPI. Will there be a new devaluation before the beginning of the gross harvest liquidation?
Regulated - water, electricity and gas rates: the Government announced the removal of subsidies between January and April. The increase of a gas bill, for example, of $5,000 could reach $20,000 in three installments. In the case of electricity, increases were determined as from February for N1s and for businesses and industries.
Regulated - Prepaid Services/Drugs: the deregulation implied an update of prepaid services fees in the order of 29% in February and 21% in March. The price of medicines did not increase in the first days of February.
Regulated - transportation, gasoline and tolls: at the beginning of February, bus and train fares were increased in the order of 250% in the metropolitan region. In the rest of the country there were increases of the same amount, which will be intensified with the announcement of the elimination of the Compensation Fund for the Interior. Additionally, in February there was a 6.4% adjustment of gasoline -corresponding to the 2022 freeze- and three increases of 4.4% (each one) are foreseen in March, April and May, corresponding to the update of the 2023 tax freeze. In addition, in May/June, the update corresponding to the first quarter of 2024 should be applied, which would result in a new increase in gasoline of close to 20%. All this regardless of the increase in gasoline due to the fluctuations of the dollar and the international price.
Rents: the application of the DNU (deregulation of the market) resulted in an additional increase in addition to inflation of between 50% and 100% for those who have to renew their rents.
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Inflation: what's ahead for February
Food and beverages: in the first days of February, increases moderated significantly. In the second week, the increase increased.
Dollar: it would remain with a crawling peg of only 2%. Doubts arise regarding the exchange rate appreciation derived from the differential with the CPI. Will there be a new devaluation before the beginning of the gross harvest liquidation?
Regulated - water, electricity and gas rates: the Government announced the removal of subsidies between January and April. The increase of a gas bill, for example, of $5,000 could reach $20,000 in three installments. In the case of electricity, increases were determined as from February for N1s and for businesses and industries.
Regulated - Prepaid Services/Drugs: the deregulation implied an update of prepaid services fees in the order of 29% in February and 21% in March. The price of medicines did not increase in the first days of February.
Regulated - transportation, gasoline and tolls: at the beginning of February, bus and train fares were increased in the order of 250% in the metropolitan region. In the rest of the country there were increases of the same amount, which will be intensified with the announcement of the elimination of the Compensation Fund for the Interior. Additionally, in February there was a 6.4% adjustment of gasoline -corresponding to the 2022 freeze- and three increases of 4.4% (each one) are foreseen in March, April and May, corresponding to the update of the 2023 tax freeze. In addition, in May/June, the update corresponding to the first quarter of 2024 should be applied, which would result in a new increase in gasoline of close to 20%. All this regardless of the increase in gasoline due to the fluctuations of the dollar and the international price.
Rents: the application of the DNU (deregulation of the market) resulted in an additional increase in addition to inflation of between 50% and 100% for those who have to renew their rents.
Inflación: ¿qué espera el mercado para los precios en febrero?
Los analistas creen que la mayor parte de la suba de precios de alimentos ocurrió en diciembre.
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