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Investors bet heavily on money laundering and the reduction of the PAIS tax: there was euphoria in Argentine assets - Infobae
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Los inversores apostaron fuerte al blanqueo y la baja del impuesto PAIS: hubo euforia en los activos argentinos
El mercado local se aisló del mundo, donde hubo caídas en las bolsas y una debilitamiento del dólar frente a las otras monedas, todo lo opuesto a lo que se vivió en la city porteña
www.infobae.com
August 30, 2024
The local market was isolated from the world, where there were falls in the stock markets and a weakening of the dollar against other currencies, the opposite of what was experienced in the city of Buenos Aires.
By Luis Beldi
On account of the money laundering, Argentina ignored the world and there was euphoria in bonds and the stock market, while dollars fell in all their forms. In fact, the free dollar collapsed $20 to $1.315, a price that goes back to the nominal values of March 23 of last year.
Data from the United States, the poor performance of the North American stock markets and the fact that the dollar is strengthening worldwide against the six main currencies, reaching its highest value since August 21 of last year, have turned all the bonds in the region upside down, except for Argentine bonds, which had their own celebration.
The markets, like clairvoyants, anticipate events. The money laundering act was a formidable carrot for investors to go after sovereign bonds and stocks , particularly those of banks, which rose by more than 6%.
Financial dollars were offered and the MEP fell $8.36 (-0.7%) to $1,273.83, while the cash settlement (CCL) fell $2.72 (-0.2%) to $1,289.96. The Central Bank was present in the market with some specific interventions.
USD 363 million were traded on the Free Exchange Market (MLC) and the Central Bank was unable to buy dollars because it had to pay for energy imports. Reserves fell USD 94 million to 27.766 billion and are on track to end the month with a cumulative balance of USD 618 million.
The problem is that in September it will not be able to maintain this rate of growth in reserves due to the fall in exports and the greater demand from importers expected after the 10-point reduction in the PAIS tax.
The report by Andrés Reschini's F2 consultancy indicates that "Chicago soybean futures have rebounded again and will bring some oxygen to agricultural sales."
The consultancy firm indicates that “the AL30D traded volumes show that we are probably going through days of official intervention and this occurs at the doors of a September that looks challenging, especially in light of what could be greater demand from importers due to the reduction in the PAIS tax and the change in the payment scheme to 50/50.”
The futures market is calm. No one is betting on a devaluation, which is why the implied rates at the different ends of the month until the end of the year are lower than the yield on the LECAP.
Nicolás Cappella, trader at Invertir en Bolsa, said that “there was a flurry of LECAP everywhere. The volume was very high. We believe that there were many sales to gather pesos to pay for yesterday's auction, in which August, for example, closed with a slight premium of 3.9%.”
The attractiveness of long-term LECAPs is given because inflation is expected to fall due to the reduction in the PAIS tax and because they promised to lower other tariffs.
For trader Adrian Wibly, “there were drops in some LECAPs that adjusted to the rates of Wednesday's auction, mainly the S28F5 (expiring in February 2025) that closed with an effective monthly rate of 3.7%. We will see how they continue tomorrow (today) when the new LECAPs begin to be quoted. At closing, the bonds were blown.”
This increase in the bonds was not surprising because the securities being tendered must be paid for and there are quite a few who are going to pay with leverage.
Sellers appeared on the CER curve because their securities were below the 3.9% yield of the LECAP and the future points to lower inflation. Inflation-linked bonds fell to 0.54%.
Sovereign bonds had an excellent day and the parity of the GD30D, the Global reference bond that has foreign law, is already at 55% and is approaching its best moments since this administration began. The increases of the bonds with the highest weighting in country risk exceeded 2%. That is why it fell 36 units (-2.4%) to 1,448 basis points.
The Stock Market was not absent and benefited from the entry of part of the pesos that were left out of the bidding on Wednesday ($860,000 million). As demonstrated by the high amount of business of 44,770 million. The Merval of the leading shares rose 2.6% in pesos and 2.9% in dollars. The banks were the big winners. Galicia increased 6.82%; BBVA, 5.15% and Macro, 4.33%.
The ADRs - certificates of ownership of shares listed on the New York Stock Exchange - had a green panel where the best performers were Galicia (+7.1%), Macro (+6.1%) and BBVA (+5.7%).
The last round of a week that seemed like a year has come to an end due to the negative political pressures that discouraged investors. Today is the opportunity to reaffirm the revival of sovereign bonds, the key to facilitating the payment of the debt that matures in January.
