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Juan Carlos de Pablo: Why he recommends that the real estate sector be prepared and predicts better times no matter who wins - La Nación Propiedades
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www.lanacion.com.ar
October 09, 2023
The economist Juan Carlos de Pablo delved into the economic context that accompanies this pre-electoral stage, while warning that better times are coming beyond whoever wins the elections.
By Silvina Vitale
Juan Carlos de Pablo analyzed the present of pre-electoral uncertainty and gave his point of view on economics and politics at the Real Estate Meeting organized by UdeSA
Within the framework of the Real Estate Meeting held by the University of San Andrés (UdeSA) on the occasion of the 20 years of the Real Estate Business Management and Development Program taught by that university, the economist Juan Carlos De Pablo gave a talk on Macroeconomics and Real Estate in election times. His panel was the first in a series that took up the entire day and that brought together the real estate and construction sector under the premise “Thinking about the present, building the future.”
The UdeSA professor began his presentation with an analysis of the global and local political situation. The first point he highlighted is that, at this time, there is no political leadership at the global level. And regarding Argentine politics, he stressed that our form of government responds to a presidential and personalist model but that, currently, Alberto Fernández and Cristina Kirchner, president and vice president respectively, do not exist.
“Political weakness in a country like Argentina affects the economy,” he stated. At the same time, he described the political-economic situation, which, these days, is marked by the fact that we have three candidates with little difference, so until October 22 we will not know anything, we cannot have certainty. In this context, the economic policy specialist explained that economic statistics and common sense say that “when the universe of voting intention is very close, there is no survey that can anticipate what is going to happen. Therefore, looking at the polls constitutes an act of irrationality,” said De Pablo.
For the teacher there is a logic of the transition that will occur until December 10. At that moment, whoever is elected has to do two things: “The first is to put an ice pack on his head because since he won, he thinks he is Napoleon, everyone applauds him and there is a festive mood. And the second is to get rid of a good part of the people who helped him win to grab those who are going to help him manage because they are two different musics,” he warned. Only from December 10 will his management begin.
On the other hand, he pointed out that he finds it even curious that many tell Sergio Massa, candidate for president for Unión por la Patria, why he does not do now what he plans to do in 2024. “The answer is that he does not know what what he is going to do in 2024 and, furthermore, he is now part of a non-government and if he wins, he will be part of one. Massa is functional to a country like ours with political weakness, he knows that he does not have a president behind him and he does what he has to do, which is to do nothing,” explained the economist.
And he added that, as the situation arises that Massa is a minister and a candidate, the representatives of the other political parties do not forgive him, much less for being in this non-government. “Herny Kissinger (former Secretary of State of the United States in the seventies) says that the population will never recognize that you avoided greater evils because they do not know what those greater evils were. Therefore, we must always take into account the circumstances and context in which these situations occur,” De Pablo considered.
the chance that the next government will be better than this one is high and, with that, at my age I am already alive. Now if you ask me what Milei's economy minister is going to do? I don't even think he knows,” he clarified.
With positive expectations about what is to come, he assured that the economic policy is very concrete and recalled that when he teaches his UdeSA students he always tells them that if they want to work on this they have to think about the SAME boys. “They are my idols, because, for example, if two buses collide, they arrive, they don't ask anything, they have people lying there, at high speed they have to classify the dead and injured, they have imperfect information, little time against them and they are surrounded by guys who want to kill them. That's why I tell my students that if they don't have the stomach, don't get involved in economic policy because it involves a set of important decisions made by qualified people who can act clearly in the worst circumstances," De Pablo defined.
In his presentation, Juan Carlos de Pablo recounted many of the talks he has with his students and the way in which he explains economic policy issues to them with everyday situations.
He also warned that the next government will probably be better than this one. And he highlighted that in terms of trade balance, it will definitely be better. “Last year we exported for US$88,000 million and this year for US$65,000 and we hope that next year it will be for US$88,000, again, “because God cannot screw us up two years in a row with the drought,” he said. “With which, whatever the government is, it will have a more alleviated inflation and this raises the question of what to do with the dollars that are recovered and my proposal is to lower the commercial debt. For next year's production level we need imports and for that we have to lower debts,” he concluded.
Regarding the electoral campaign, he assured that he does not give it any importance “because as Bismark said, people never lie as much as before an election, during a war or in a hunt and he is right. All opposition leaders have the solution, but it is all campaign,” he stated.
Finally, he warned that the first magnitude conflict has to do with the country's public spending. And he stressed that a contest must be held among those who know to solve it. He considered that suitability is needed, because “the technical work that must be done in economic matters is very important.”
Regarding real estate, and the future of the sector, he assured that it is necessary to be prepared and advised not to applaud elected officials because they get confused, for De Pablo, we must give them the benefit of the doubt and wait to see what they do.
By Silvina Vitale
www.buysellba.com
Source:
Juan Carlos de Pablo: por qué recomienda al sector inmobiliario estar preparados y augura mejores tiempos gane quien gane
El economista Juan Carlos de Pablo profundizó sobre el contexto económico que acompaña esta etapa pre electoral, a la vez que advirtió que se avecinan tiempos mejores más allá de quien gane las elecciones.
www.lanacion.com.ar
October 09, 2023
The economist Juan Carlos de Pablo delved into the economic context that accompanies this pre-electoral stage, while warning that better times are coming beyond whoever wins the elections.
By Silvina Vitale
Juan Carlos de Pablo analyzed the present of pre-electoral uncertainty and gave his point of view on economics and politics at the Real Estate Meeting organized by UdeSA
Within the framework of the Real Estate Meeting held by the University of San Andrés (UdeSA) on the occasion of the 20 years of the Real Estate Business Management and Development Program taught by that university, the economist Juan Carlos De Pablo gave a talk on Macroeconomics and Real Estate in election times. His panel was the first in a series that took up the entire day and that brought together the real estate and construction sector under the premise “Thinking about the present, building the future.”
The UdeSA professor began his presentation with an analysis of the global and local political situation. The first point he highlighted is that, at this time, there is no political leadership at the global level. And regarding Argentine politics, he stressed that our form of government responds to a presidential and personalist model but that, currently, Alberto Fernández and Cristina Kirchner, president and vice president respectively, do not exist.
“Political weakness in a country like Argentina affects the economy,” he stated. At the same time, he described the political-economic situation, which, these days, is marked by the fact that we have three candidates with little difference, so until October 22 we will not know anything, we cannot have certainty. In this context, the economic policy specialist explained that economic statistics and common sense say that “when the universe of voting intention is very close, there is no survey that can anticipate what is going to happen. Therefore, looking at the polls constitutes an act of irrationality,” said De Pablo.
For the teacher there is a logic of the transition that will occur until December 10. At that moment, whoever is elected has to do two things: “The first is to put an ice pack on his head because since he won, he thinks he is Napoleon, everyone applauds him and there is a festive mood. And the second is to get rid of a good part of the people who helped him win to grab those who are going to help him manage because they are two different musics,” he warned. Only from December 10 will his management begin.
On the other hand, he pointed out that he finds it even curious that many tell Sergio Massa, candidate for president for Unión por la Patria, why he does not do now what he plans to do in 2024. “The answer is that he does not know what what he is going to do in 2024 and, furthermore, he is now part of a non-government and if he wins, he will be part of one. Massa is functional to a country like ours with political weakness, he knows that he does not have a president behind him and he does what he has to do, which is to do nothing,” explained the economist.
And he added that, as the situation arises that Massa is a minister and a candidate, the representatives of the other political parties do not forgive him, much less for being in this non-government. “Herny Kissinger (former Secretary of State of the United States in the seventies) says that the population will never recognize that you avoided greater evils because they do not know what those greater evils were. Therefore, we must always take into account the circumstances and context in which these situations occur,” De Pablo considered.
The “cuckoo” of October
Regarding the expectations that exist in the population for the next elections, the UdeSA professor assured that he does not understand “the cuckoo” that October 22 represents. In that sense, he told something that he shared with his class about this issue. “I ask my Introduction to Economics students if it could snow here now and they tell me yes it could, but no one brought warm clothes because the probability is so low that if it snows, you'll be screwed,” he said. And he compared it to the electoral moment we are experiencing and referred to the La Libertad Avanza candidate, “With Javier Milei .There are two alternatives: the first is that he enters with a machine gun and breaks everything, the second is that he lands and stops messing around. How do I make decisions? Based on the second, not because I know it, but I make decisions based on the second, but not the other way around,” he warned. Then he added that he knows the libertarian candidate and highlighted “I have a version that is not the crazy one that is on television, but I don't have a way to calm people down because they might go crazy, what do I know. What I want to say is that the chance that the next government will be better than this one is high and, with that, at my age I am already alive. Now if you ask me what Milei's economy minister is going to do? I don't even think he knows,” he clarified. The chance that the next government will be better than this one is high and, with that, at my age I am already alive. Now if you ask me what Milei's economy minister is going to do? I don't even think he knows,” he clarified. and, with that, at my age I am already alive. Now if you ask me what Milei's economy minister is going to do? I don't even think he knows,” he clarified.the chance that the next government will be better than this one is high and, with that, at my age I am already alive. Now if you ask me what Milei's economy minister is going to do? I don't even think he knows,” he clarified.
With positive expectations about what is to come, he assured that the economic policy is very concrete and recalled that when he teaches his UdeSA students he always tells them that if they want to work on this they have to think about the SAME boys. “They are my idols, because, for example, if two buses collide, they arrive, they don't ask anything, they have people lying there, at high speed they have to classify the dead and injured, they have imperfect information, little time against them and they are surrounded by guys who want to kill them. That's why I tell my students that if they don't have the stomach, don't get involved in economic policy because it involves a set of important decisions made by qualified people who can act clearly in the worst circumstances," De Pablo defined.
In his presentation, Juan Carlos de Pablo recounted many of the talks he has with his students and the way in which he explains economic policy issues to them with everyday situations.
Better times
For the economics specialist, the new times will be given by dialogue and the suitability of those who direct the country economically. In that sense, he highlighted the importance of political dialogue, which he defined as the situation in which the winning candidate and the opponent sit together and the former presents his ideas while asking the loser about his. “That's suitability,” he said. And he added: “At the moment, we have to wait to vote, but let's not rule out that things will improve.”He also warned that the next government will probably be better than this one. And he highlighted that in terms of trade balance, it will definitely be better. “Last year we exported for US$88,000 million and this year for US$65,000 and we hope that next year it will be for US$88,000, again, “because God cannot screw us up two years in a row with the drought,” he said. “With which, whatever the government is, it will have a more alleviated inflation and this raises the question of what to do with the dollars that are recovered and my proposal is to lower the commercial debt. For next year's production level we need imports and for that we have to lower debts,” he concluded.
Regarding the electoral campaign, he assured that he does not give it any importance “because as Bismark said, people never lie as much as before an election, during a war or in a hunt and he is right. All opposition leaders have the solution, but it is all campaign,” he stated.
Finally, he warned that the first magnitude conflict has to do with the country's public spending. And he stressed that a contest must be held among those who know to solve it. He considered that suitability is needed, because “the technical work that must be done in economic matters is very important.”
Regarding real estate, and the future of the sector, he assured that it is necessary to be prepared and advised not to applaud elected officials because they get confused, for De Pablo, we must give them the benefit of the doubt and wait to see what they do.
By Silvina Vitale
www.buysellba.com
