Milei faces a "trilemma" and explains why he is making "a bet on everything or nothing"

[Finance Prof]

This was a very good article that talks about the "Trilemma" of President Milei.

Según este economista, Milei enfrenta un "trilema" y explica porque está haciendo "una apuesta a todo o nada"

Un trilema refleja una situación en la que hay 3 objetivos que son deseables pero que, a la vez, son excluyentes entre sí.

eleconomista.com.ar

English Translation

 

[Betsy Ross]

Thanks for posting @Finance Prof. Indeed we aren't out of the woods yet. As usual, things are always changing here.

 

[Uncle Wong]

The only thing certain about Argentina is that things seem to never be certain and always changing. I'm not sure how some of you deal with this constant change so frequently.

 

[Vero]

We are accustomed to constant change. Maybe in the future things won't change so much. We all pray for stability.

 

[James Bond]

I don't see any way they won't have to devalue the currency again and inflation jumping again. The IMF isn't likely to loan even more money or restructure. No one is talking about all the maturities due during his term. $210+ BILLION. Default is highly likely during Milei's term.

One of the reasons I moved out of Argentina. Even with the changes and reforms Milei is making you have to look at these facts.

 

[Blockchain]

I don't see any way they won't have to devalue the currency again and inflation jumping again. The IMF isn't likely to loan even more money or restructure. No one is talking about all the maturities due during his term. $210+ BILLION. Default is highly likely during Milei's term.

One of the reasons I moved out of Argentina. Even with the changes and reforms Milei is making you have to look at these facts.

Wow. Does this money include the $16 billion dollars that the vulture fund has won? Or is that separate?

 

[Betsy Ross]

I don't see any way they won't have to devalue the currency again and inflation jumping again. The IMF isn't likely to loan even more money or restructure. No one is talking about all the maturities due during his term. $210+ BILLION. Default is highly likely during Milei's term.

One of the reasons I moved out of Argentina. Even with the changes and reforms Milei is making you have to look at these facts.

Very good points @James Bond. I think the total is actually over $215 billion dollars due. Maybe more.

Wow. Does this money include the $16 billion dollars that the vulture fund has won? Or is that separate?

No this doesn't include the $16 Billion that Argentina owes to Burford Capital. Actually it is more because interest is accumulating daily on this amount and will keep going until they are paid.

 

[Avocado]

Thanks for posting @Finance Prof. Indeed we aren't out of the woods yet. As usual, things are always changing here.

Why do people talk about out of the woods speaking as if things are rosy? Yes inflation is down which is very good but look at the spread in white and blue rate. Back to 50%. Record high poverty rates, deep recession, crime rampant. Why are people speaking as if things have turned around???

 

[fetch rover]

Why do people talk about out of the woods speaking as if things are rosy? Yes inflation is down which is very good but look at the spread in white and blue rate. Back to 50%. Record high poverty rates, deep recession, crime rampant. Why are people speaking as if things have turned around???

Things are improving. Argentina has a fiscal surplus for the first time in 16 years. Government spending has been reigned in. Laws have changed, Omnibus law was passed. Inflation is slowing down. You can't try to downplay all the tremendous changes going on in Argentina right now.

 

[I Love Mate]

Things are improving. Argentina has a fiscal surplus for the first time in 16 years. Government spending has been reigned in. Laws have changed, Omnibus law was passed. Inflation is slowing down. You can't try to downplay all the tremendous changes going on in Argentina right now.

Exactly. No one is saying that things are going to totally improve overnight. But it's a good start and framework for change. Milei has said that he is just starting the turn around but that it will take many decades.

 

[RN in BA]

Even with the uncertainty and constant change, BA was easily the best city that I have visited in Latin America. I hope to make it home one day.