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Money laundering effect: due to the increase in deposits, banks have more dollars than the Central Bank in reserves - Infobae
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Efecto blanqueo: por la suba de depósitos, los bancos tienen más dólares que el Banco Central en la reservas
El volumen total ya supera los USD 29.100 millones de reservas que informó la autoridad monetaria. Desde la Convertibilidad que no se daba esa relación entre ambas variables
www.infobae.com
October 02, 2024
The total volume already exceeds the USD 29.1 billion of reserves reported by the monetary authority. Since Convertibility, this relationship between both variables has not existed.
By Virginia Porcella
Private deposits in dollars are not only close to the maximum of August 2019, when they totaled USD 32.4 billion, but they are also ahead in what, in any case, for now is almost a "technical tie" (REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian/)
The increase in dollar deposits, above initial expectations due to the first stage of the money laundering to avoid paying the fine of up to USD 100,000 in cash, had a particular effect: there are more dollars in the financial system than in the Central Bank's reserves.
This is despite the fact that the greater volume of funds in banks contributes to feeding the level of gross reserves via reserve requirements. This is a relationship that has rarely been seen or, rather, has not been seen for many years. Specifically, more than 20 years ago, during the years of convertibility, when deposit requirements were, precisely, a large portion of reserves and the total amount of private deposits was almost 50% higher.
The difference is not, at least for now, that wide, but the truth is that the reserves are running from behind.
Fuente: Infobae con datos del BCRA
The Central Bank reported reserves of USD 29.1 billion on Wednesday, after having recovered the USD 2 billion drop on September 30, essentially due to the typical end-of-month movements. By that date, deposits were already above that level, even exceeding USD 30 billion. This despite the fact that, after the peak of dollar inflows to banks at the beginning of last week, for USD 1.7 billion in a single day, which slowed down to less than half last Friday, after the announcement of the extension of the different stages of the money laundering process.
“The stock of private dollar deposits slowed down again for the second consecutive day, the daily rate of increase fell to USD 890 million and the accumulated increase since August 14 was USD 12.27 billion, one day before the original due date (Monday 30),” Outlier highlighted in its daily report.
With these figures, private deposits in dollars are not only close to the maximum of August 2019, when they totaled USD 32.4 billion, but they are also ahead in what, in any case, for now is almost a "technical tie."
Deposits and reserves
The truth is that the picture may change depending on the data that will be released on Thursday, when the variation in dollar deposits will begin to reflect the eventual outflow of part of the funds deposited by savers. This movement, at least during October if the period of each instance of the money laundering is not extended even further, would be compensated by the inflow of new deposits.
In this regard, the financial consultancy firm highlighted that on Tuesday there was an increase in the volume of transfers of dollar bills between banks and the BCRA, amounting to USD 225 million, a figure whose interpretation is subject to statistics on the evolution of the stock of placements.
"Given that the banks are quite liquid in foreign currency as a result of money laundering, it would seem that they have transferred little of it to the BCRA, judging by the evolution of the reserve requirements. Initially, we did not interpret the data as a liquidity requirement from the banks to the BCRA. But, since this is the first day that money launderers could withdraw and we do not have the data on the stock of deposits yet, we cannot be conclusive in this regard," he said.
In any case, estimates by tax experts predict a high level of withdrawal of the new mass of deposits, which could reach up to 40% of new placements. If such a figure is confirmed, the system would still grow by more than USD 10 billion compared to the end of last year, which would ultimately impact gross reserves.
