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Mortgage loans: is it better to buy the home now or wait? - Infobae
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Créditos hipotecarios: ¿conviene comprar la vivienda ahora o esperar?
Los precios de las viviendas dejaron de descender. Ante una creciente oferta de opciones crediticias, especialistas aconsejan cuál es el mejor momento para adquirir propiedades
www.infobae.com
May 14, 2024
Housing prices stopped falling. Faced with a growing offer of credit options, specialists advise when is the best time to acquire properties
By José Luis Cieri
Mortgage loans will revitalize the real estate sector. Advice on whether to buy now or wait for later
The decision about whether to buy a home now or wait a while has become more complex due to the volatility in purchase and sale prices, beyond the conditions that banks can offer in their mortgage loans (there are already more than 10 proposals).
The introduction of these loans coincides with a stage of recovery in the real estate sector, after five years of crisis. Furthermore, along with an increase in purchase and sale transactions , it is observed that values stopped falling, experiencing a slight appreciation.
Alan Schachter , an expert in the real estate market, advises carefully evaluating different aspects before proceeding: interest rates, devaluation and inflation, as well as price dynamics in the real estate market.
He emphasizes that, although interest rates for UVA mortgage loans currently appear attractive, standing between 3.5% and 4/5%, they are unlikely to decrease significantly.
On the other hand, despite the slight recovery in prices in the Buenos Aires city market, the supply-demand relationship continues to show a considerable imbalance, with a slight growth in recent closing prices.
Buy rignt now
Once banks activate purchase options, many are already experiencing a flood of inquiries and registrations from interested parties. The first disbursements could be made in June.In CABA, the nominal decrease in purchase and sale values is 50% and real 60% since the peak of the first quarter of 2018. It is essential to differentiate between list values and closing prices. Currently, despite the increase in demand and the reduction in supply, a notable imbalance still persists: with more than 80,000 offers and just over 10,000 demands per quarter, 80% and 90% of the properties listed are not Do you sell.
The average published values found their lowest point in July 2023, at USD 2,022 per m2 for used properties, and now stand at USD 2,061, representing a slight increase of 1.9% year-on-year.
Faced with this situation, the question arises: Is it preferable to buy now taking advantage of current prices and current interest rates, or wait for possible higher prices, speculating on lower rates?
“Based on the previous cycle (until 2018), those who bought early, before the price escalation and without speculating on rate improvements that ultimately did not occur, made a better investment,” Schachter noted.
What can happen
The current panorama of mortgage loans in Argentina reflects interest rates similar to those of the boom period between 2016 and 2018. This similarity in rates, which remain at comparatively low levels, suggests that the loans could be widely accepted.“However, it is important to pay attention to the fluctuation of the UVA, since this factor is decisive when making a decision about mortgage loans,” clarified Nicolás Zaldivia , director of Cacique Desarrollos.
Regarding the devaluation of the peso and the inflation projection for the next 12 months, Zaldivia foresees a significant decrease in inflation, which should stabilize at single digits and close the year around 2%. “This would help keep the UVA value relatively stable, avoiding the increase peaks observed recently.”
At the same time that the credits are processed, it will be necessary to begin to find out and visit homes to choose the best option that suits the pocket and need.
Regarding the drop in property prices in CABA since 2018, Zaldivia advises not to wait and take advantage of current values. “Prices, far from continuing to fall, are beginning to rise, a trend accelerated by the increase in inquiries following the announcement of new mortgage loans. “Properties will see an increase of between 12% and 15% towards the end of the year, partly due to the stability of the dollar.”
On the lessons of the past growth cycle in real estate operations, anticipating that the current context could trigger a phenomenon similar to that experienced between 2016 and 2018.
Iván Briones , from Estudio Kohon, emphasized the competitiveness of interest rates compared to the “boom” that occurred six years ago. “The aggressive stance of banks in offering attractive rates such as UVA plus 3.5%, driven by the need to lend in the face of the decline of their main lender: the Government. This scenario positions current rates as highly competitive and unlikely to improve substantially, establishing a favorable environment for borrowers.”
Specialists advise taking advantage of current real estate market prices without expecting additional reductions. Currently in CABA there are more than 30,000 homes for less than USD 100,000 in well-located neighborhoods of the city.
The real estate market is characterized by adjustments in its volume of operations rather than in prices. In periods of crisis, a notable reduction in the number of transactions is observed, since owners usually resist lowering prices.
Briones concluded: “The segment is adjusted mainly by volume and not so much by price. During crises, the number of transactions falls because sellers prefer not to adjust prices downwards. However, with the arrival of mortgage loans and Laundering money (if approved in Congress), it is likely that market opportunities will quickly dry up and then prices will begin to rise. This will make opportunities fleeting, and that is why you have to act quickly to buy. “We already saw this pattern in 2017-2018, when in just a few months the total supply was absorbed and prices increased considerably.”
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