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Omnibus law and IMF demand: the Government puts pressure on Congress and seems to ignore its own risks - Infobae
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www.infobae.com
January 17, 2024
The Fund praises the first steps in economic matters. It is not the only signal: it reiterates the need for political support for the reforms. It is a central test for Milei, with the focus on the megaproject that Deputies is dealing with. And the complications of the DNU also appear
By Eduardo Aulicino
Luis Caputo, at a press conference. It has a central role in the negotiations with the IMF
Conversations with the IMF occupy a central part of the agenda of Javier Milei and his austere entourage in Davos. The signals for the Government are clear, but non-linear. The biggest piece of information is the agreement to clear payments in the first quarter of the year, with decisive endorsement from Washington. And in parallel, runs the discourse presented by the international organization while waiting for the formalization of the deal: the praise for the initial economic measures and the signaling of the need for political support for the core of the reform megaproject. The reading of the ruling party seems to dismiss its part and the risks in case of not achieving support for its move in Congress.
The way in which the official delegation spread the message transmitted by the IMF, after the first meeting within the framework of the World Economic Forum, was notable. Nicolás Posse and Luis Caputo met with Gita Gopinath. The Chief of Staff and the minister were satisfied and it was revealed, as a summary, that the number two official of the Fund expressed “enthusiasm” with the measures promoted by the Government and “he highlighted the importance of politics accompanying the measures”.
The mention of “politics” is a way for the ruling party to refer to the political system, even considering itself outside. In other words: in his vision it would be a claim to the different non-official spaces. And that would be in line with the tougher pressures on the opposition willing to negotiate and the search for polarization< /span>.would be the work of dark interests and corrupt businesses with Peronism/Kirchnerism. Without nuances, the charges maintain as a line of argument that a legislative failure.
The Government, beyond this basic strategy in Congress, stressed by complicated negotiations and official pressure, leaves the impression of analyzing partially the various signals that arise from the talks and agreements with the IMF. It is admitted, in any case, that the key has once again been the role of the United States, in the face of some misgivings from other Fund partners. It is not a minor element, due to the regional perspective of the Joe Biden government and due to the expectations that Milei's experience opens on the external front...
The IMF showed a line - which is not new - from the first contacts to revive the agreement that had in fact fallen due to the last UxP campaign, something that largely fuels the aforementioned misgivings. The new message now refers again to economic objectives, technical issues and also political issues.
Last week, I had exposed it Julie Kozcak. The IMF spokesperson highlighted the understanding - some 4.7 billion dollars to meet a good part of the commitments until the end of April - and made clear the expectation that the Argentine government achieves "political support" enough to secure the fundamental points of his omnibus bill. In the same direction, were the expressions of Gita Gopinath in the meeting with Luis Caputo and Nicolás Posse, as broadcast in Davos.
Everything happens in the run-up to Milei's meeting with Kristalina Georgieva. The director of the Fund left statements in advance that support the decision to move forward with the agreement. He considered that there are positive steps to face the deficit and improve reserves -the two central lines- and said that These are reforms “bold” that should not neglect the “vulnerable” sectors of society.
Martín Menem and Guillermo Francos, with the text of the megaproject that stresses Deputies
Seeing the set of gestures, negotiations and finer signals, on the external front there appears a special attention to the political fate of the new government, the turn in terms of international positioning and domestic policy, that is, in a framework that combines the serious economic and social crisis, the shocking victory in the runoff election and the scarce parliamentary representation. the ability to consolidate itself in a context that combines the serious economic and social crisis, the shocking victory in the ballot and the scarce parliamentary representation.
The warnings from officials and the presidential speech itself intended for Congress - now, focusing on Deputies - can then and precisely be understood as elements of pressure, beyond their quality. But assuming that these are warnings about possible maximum decisions would indicate not taking one's own risk< a i=4> faced with an outcome without an omnibus law and with the DNU already complicated in Justice.
The ruling party is playing to accelerate the processing of the megaproject in Deputies, as a way of warning that it rejects negotiations without a time limit. The blocs willing to negotiate -PRO, UCR, We Make the Federal Coalition and other spaces- have been holding intense meetings with officials, in the presidency of the Chamber, and before discussing meeting dates they maintain rejection or proposals for limitations on a handful of points: legislative delegation, retirements, withholdings, debt, on the front line.
Guillermo Francos, who has been working on conversations with governors - some public and others reserved -, emphasized speeding up the process a>. Of course, he knows the complexity and breadth - with unusual articles - of the text, but he moves on the difficult board of an ruling party without legislative majorities and without territorial weight. aggravate the crisis, under the argument that delays
Less careful than the Minister of the Interior was his Economy colleague. Caputo had said that if the omnibus law failed, harsher and even extreme measures would have to be taken. It was not the only expression of that nature from the ranks of the ruling party. It is a message that appears dissociated, for example, from what it would mean in practical terms and as an external signal.
First of all, it would imply a political conflict of uncertain impact. And that uncertainty would also impact the economic terrain. To the outside, in addition, it would project the image of an Executive in crisis with the other two powers. There is nothing to suggest that a path of pure decrees can be affirmed. The initial DNU already has issues in Justice.
The focus is on Congress, but it transcends it. And that is also expressed in the IMF's tighter message.
Source:
Ley ómnibus y demanda del FMI: el Gobierno presiona al Congreso y parece desatender riesgos propios
El Fondo elogia los primeros pasos en materia económica. No es la única señal: reitera la necesidad de sostén político para las reformas. Es una prueba central para Milei, con el foco puesto en el megaproyecto que trata Diputados. Y además asoman las complicaciones del DNU
www.infobae.com
January 17, 2024
The Fund praises the first steps in economic matters. It is not the only signal: it reiterates the need for political support for the reforms. It is a central test for Milei, with the focus on the megaproject that Deputies is dealing with. And the complications of the DNU also appear
By Eduardo Aulicino
Luis Caputo, at a press conference. It has a central role in the negotiations with the IMF
Conversations with the IMF occupy a central part of the agenda of Javier Milei and his austere entourage in Davos. The signals for the Government are clear, but non-linear. The biggest piece of information is the agreement to clear payments in the first quarter of the year, with decisive endorsement from Washington. And in parallel, runs the discourse presented by the international organization while waiting for the formalization of the deal: the praise for the initial economic measures and the signaling of the need for political support for the core of the reform megaproject. The reading of the ruling party seems to dismiss its part and the risks in case of not achieving support for its move in Congress.
The way in which the official delegation spread the message transmitted by the IMF, after the first meeting within the framework of the World Economic Forum, was notable. Nicolás Posse and Luis Caputo met with Gita Gopinath. The Chief of Staff and the minister were satisfied and it was revealed, as a summary, that the number two official of the Fund expressed “enthusiasm” with the measures promoted by the Government and “he highlighted the importance of politics accompanying the measures”.
The mention of “politics” is a way for the ruling party to refer to the political system, even considering itself outside. In other words: in his vision it would be a claim to the different non-official spaces. And that would be in line with the tougher pressures on the opposition willing to negotiate and the search for polarization< /span>.would be the work of dark interests and corrupt businesses with Peronism/Kirchnerism. Without nuances, the charges maintain as a line of argument that a legislative failure.
The Government, beyond this basic strategy in Congress, stressed by complicated negotiations and official pressure, leaves the impression of analyzing partially the various signals that arise from the talks and agreements with the IMF. It is admitted, in any case, that the key has once again been the role of the United States, in the face of some misgivings from other Fund partners. It is not a minor element, due to the regional perspective of the Joe Biden government and due to the expectations that Milei's experience opens on the external front...
The IMF showed a line - which is not new - from the first contacts to revive the agreement that had in fact fallen due to the last UxP campaign, something that largely fuels the aforementioned misgivings. The new message now refers again to economic objectives, technical issues and also political issues.
Last week, I had exposed it Julie Kozcak. The IMF spokesperson highlighted the understanding - some 4.7 billion dollars to meet a good part of the commitments until the end of April - and made clear the expectation that the Argentine government achieves "political support" enough to secure the fundamental points of his omnibus bill. In the same direction, were the expressions of Gita Gopinath in the meeting with Luis Caputo and Nicolás Posse, as broadcast in Davos.
Everything happens in the run-up to Milei's meeting with Kristalina Georgieva. The director of the Fund left statements in advance that support the decision to move forward with the agreement. He considered that there are positive steps to face the deficit and improve reserves -the two central lines- and said that These are reforms “bold” that should not neglect the “vulnerable” sectors of society.
Martín Menem and Guillermo Francos, with the text of the megaproject that stresses Deputies
Seeing the set of gestures, negotiations and finer signals, on the external front there appears a special attention to the political fate of the new government, the turn in terms of international positioning and domestic policy, that is, in a framework that combines the serious economic and social crisis, the shocking victory in the runoff election and the scarce parliamentary representation. the ability to consolidate itself in a context that combines the serious economic and social crisis, the shocking victory in the ballot and the scarce parliamentary representation.
The warnings from officials and the presidential speech itself intended for Congress - now, focusing on Deputies - can then and precisely be understood as elements of pressure, beyond their quality. But assuming that these are warnings about possible maximum decisions would indicate not taking one's own risk< a i=4> faced with an outcome without an omnibus law and with the DNU already complicated in Justice.
The ruling party is playing to accelerate the processing of the megaproject in Deputies, as a way of warning that it rejects negotiations without a time limit. The blocs willing to negotiate -PRO, UCR, We Make the Federal Coalition and other spaces- have been holding intense meetings with officials, in the presidency of the Chamber, and before discussing meeting dates they maintain rejection or proposals for limitations on a handful of points: legislative delegation, retirements, withholdings, debt, on the front line.
Guillermo Francos, who has been working on conversations with governors - some public and others reserved -, emphasized speeding up the process a>. Of course, he knows the complexity and breadth - with unusual articles - of the text, but he moves on the difficult board of an ruling party without legislative majorities and without territorial weight. aggravate the crisis, under the argument that delays
Less careful than the Minister of the Interior was his Economy colleague. Caputo had said that if the omnibus law failed, harsher and even extreme measures would have to be taken. It was not the only expression of that nature from the ranks of the ruling party. It is a message that appears dissociated, for example, from what it would mean in practical terms and as an external signal.
First of all, it would imply a political conflict of uncertain impact. And that uncertainty would also impact the economic terrain. To the outside, in addition, it would project the image of an Executive in crisis with the other two powers. There is nothing to suggest that a path of pure decrees can be affirmed. The initial DNU already has issues in Justice.
The focus is on Congress, but it transcends it. And that is also expressed in the IMF's tighter message.
