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Poverty rose to 49% in the last semester according to private estimates - Infobae
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La pobreza trepó al 49% en el último semestre según estimaciones privadas
Así se desprende del último nowcast de pobreza de la Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. Alcanza a alrededor de 29.4 millones de personas
www.infobae.com
May 15, 2024
This is clear from the latest poverty nowcast from the Torcuato Di Tella University. Reaches around 29.4 million people
A private estimate showed that the poverty level grew in every month so far in 2024 (NA)
Poverty increased to 48.9% of the population in the November-April semester, reaching 29.4 million people, according to the latest nowcast from the Torcuato Di Tella University. It is an increase of 0.6 percentage points compared to the October-March data and 7.2 points compared to the semiannual data reported last December. The indicator maintains its growth, despite a slight slowdown in its rate of advance.
The average Total Basic Basket of the Greater Buenos Aires (GBA) region for the reference semester was estimated at $203,642 per equivalent adult. This is a year-on-year increase of 265.3%. For the average total family income (ITF), an interannual increase of 196.1% was projected for the semester. With these data and the simulation of the microdata from the Permanent Household Survey (EPH) for the fourth quarter of 2023 and the first and second quarters of 2024, the poverty rate was projected.
Poverty rate in the last semester (Di Tella)
“The projected incidence can be decomposed mechanically, it is a weighted average of a poverty rate of 45.2% for the two-month period November-December 2023, 51.8% for the first quarter of 2024 and 48.0% for the month of April 2024,” he indicated. the report prepared by Martín González Rozada , co-director of the university's Master's in Econometrics.
“This projection suggests that around 49% of people live in poor urban households. The urban population captured by the EPH in the reference semester was estimated at 29.4 million people, which implies that around 14.4 million live in poor urban homes,” he specified.
The figure represents an increase compared to the October-March semester, when poverty reached 48.3% , according to the same estimates.
This occurs in a context of sharp decline in purchasing power, in which salaries are running behind inflation despite its deceleration: in the first three months of the year the income of stable workers increased 45.7%, against inflation of 51.6%, according to the Average Taxable Remuneration of Stable Workers (RIPTE). This reached a value of $705,832.58 in March.
It is worth remembering that, according to the latest official measurements from Indec last December, in the second half of 2023, poverty reached 41.7% of the population , so some 19.4 million people were unable to cover the expenses of the basic basket.
In turn, the indigence rate , referring to those who do not have their food needs covered, reached 11.9 percent , that is, about 5.5 million people .
The indicator continues to worsen if the data for 2022 is also looked at, when 39.2% of people were considered poor in Argentina and 8.1% were considered indigent.
How much the basic basket increased in April
The Di Tella data comes after Indec published April inflation, which was 8.8%, and the increase in the basic basket.Firstly, the Total Basic Basket (CBT) increased 7.1% monthly. It rose 67% so far this year and 307.2% in the last twelve months. The needs for an adult “equivalent” to that basket totaled 268,012 pesos. Thus, a typical family of four needed income in April of $828,158 to avoid falling below the poverty line.
Meanwhile, the Basic Food Basket (CBA) marked an increase of 4.2%. The accumulated increase in 2024 was 55% and 296.2% in the last year. Thus, the same family needed $373,044 to avoid being destitute.
