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President Javier Milei Lays out Blueprint for Dollarization in Argentina
- Thread starter LongIslander
- Start date
That is NO plan. He has been saying the same thing as before he got elected. There is no plan.
Finance Prof
Well-known member
I still don't see this happening for quite a bit of time. As much as Milei and his team want it to happen I just don't see it in the cards.
So much for dollarization. 
fee.org
How Javier Milei Is Battling the Worst Tax of All—Inflation - FEE
The battle is far from over, but there seems to be reason for optimism.
fee.org
Finance Prof
Well-known member
There are a lot of moving parts. Dollarization isn't happening any time soon. Must read article.
latinamericanpost.com
Milei's Bold Zero Emission Gamble Amid Argentina's Economic Challenges
President Javier Milei's plan to eliminate monetary emissions aims to curb Argentina's inflation and stabilize the exchange rate. This ambitious move faces challenges from low central bank reserves and a slowly recovering economy.
latinamericanpost.com
Avocado
Well-known member
Yes, we won't see dollarization for a long time if at all.So much for dollarization.
How Javier Milei Is Battling the Worst Tax of All—Inflation - FEE
The battle is far from over, but there seems to be reason for optimism.
¿Crecer con cepo?: el plan de Milei sumó más dudas sobre cuándo se levantarán las restricciones al dólar | TN
El Gobierno insiste en que “no hay apuro” para liberar las trabas cambiarias y reactivó un fuerte debate entre los economistas y referentes del mercado. Los riesgos que advierten los especialistas.
Uncle Wong
Well-known member
What will this mean for mid-term elections in 2025? I just see that mountain of debt that is due next year. Still not sure where all the money will come for this?
Won't the government have to eventually devaluate the currency again driving up inflation again? Seems like an endless loop.
Correct. I read this blog today and it was very realistic. I don't see any way the currency won't get devalued in the future.
Eyes on the 2025 Midterm Prize
Will the exchange rate restrictions get lifted before Q4 2025, and what are the consequences of keeping them active?
www.bowtiedmara.io
Finance Prof
Well-known member
Great to see more and more people depositing Dollars into the formal banking system. We are probably a long way off from dollarization however.
nearshoreamericas.com
Argentine Banks Are Filling Up With USD Deposits, But Dollarization Remains Ellusive - Nearshore Americas
Argentine banks are seeing a tremendous increase in USD deposits, though President Milei's dollarization plan remains ellusive.
nearshoreamericas.com
Nasdaq
Well-known member
This is the billion-dollar question. The government is saying "trust us we will figure it out" but the numbers don't add up. We are in the middle of a recession. No one is spending money. People are having to cash in their dollar savings to pay bills. Not sure what will happen after mid-term elections in 2025.
Digital Nomad
Well-known member
I read this today. It doesn't sound like dollarization is going to happen on it's own. Looks like a lot of dollar deposits from people bringing in cash from that tax forgiveness. But why would people keep this in the bank? Isn't it at risk of a possible bank run? Does not seem smart to keep dollars in the banking system when they have so many problems.
www.bnnbloomberg.ca
Milei Wants Argentines to Dollarize the Economy for Him
Javier Milei seems to have abandoned his vision of a sudden, official dollarization of the Argentine economy. The politician, who suggested blowing up the central bank’s peso printing machines during last year’s presidential campaign, no longer talks about that. Instead, he wants his countrymen...
Vince
Well-known member
Much of the cash entering the system is from the blanqueo tax amnesty. People want to get these funds into the system so they can get them out of the system too. People most likely aren't going to keep this cash in the banking system here. We will have a good idea in a few months how much was pulled back out.I read this today. It doesn't sound like dollarization is going to happen on it's own. Looks like a lot of dollar deposits from people bringing in cash from that tax forgiveness. But why would people keep this in the bank? Isn't it at risk of a possible bank run? Does not seem smart to keep dollars in the banking system when they have so many problems.
Milei Wants Argentines to Dollarize the Economy for Him
Javier Milei seems to have abandoned his vision of a sudden, official dollarization of the Argentine economy. The politician, who suggested blowing up the central bank’s peso printing machines during last year’s presidential campaign, no longer talks about that. Instead, he wants his countrymen...
Betsy Ross
Well-known member
Like Vince said, a lot of the people that are bringing cash into the country have an intended purpose to use the cash. Car, apartment, other item.
Digital Nomad
Well-known member
I asked my girlfriend the same thing. Her family actually thinks people are crazy to keep dollars in the banking system here beyond this year. She told me that some people bringing it in have to keep the cash in their accounts for a while before they can withdraw it. Her family didn't lose any money during the corralito. They withdrew it all before the corralito started.I read this today. It doesn't sound like dollarization is going to happen on it's own. Looks like a lot of dollar deposits from people bringing in cash from that tax forgiveness. But why would people keep this in the bank? Isn't it at risk of a possible bank run? Does not seem smart to keep dollars in the banking system when they have so many problems.
Milei Wants Argentines to Dollarize the Economy for Him
Javier Milei seems to have abandoned his vision of a sudden, official dollarization of the Argentine economy. The politician, who suggested blowing up the central bank’s peso printing machines during last year’s presidential campaign, no longer talks about that. Instead, he wants his countrymen...
They told me people will yank out this money out of the banking system. They have a lot of friends that brought in the maximum amount with the blanqueo program. Her best friend is buying an apartment with her dad and they each declared $100k each with her mother too.
I am curious what the exchange rate will be if they ever end this CEPO?
Blockchain
Well-known member
From everything that people that I met in Argentina told me is that it is impossible to dollarize in Argentina.I read this today. It doesn't sound like dollarization is going to happen on it's own. Looks like a lot of dollar deposits from people bringing in cash from that tax forgiveness. But why would people keep this in the bank? Isn't it at risk of a possible bank run? Does not seem smart to keep dollars in the banking system when they have so many problems.
Milei Wants Argentines to Dollarize the Economy for Him
Javier Milei seems to have abandoned his vision of a sudden, official dollarization of the Argentine economy. The politician, who suggested blowing up the central bank’s peso printing machines during last year’s presidential campaign, no longer talks about that. Instead, he wants his countrymen...
Funny because the lady that rented me one of my Airbnb also just sent me a Whatsapp that she will have a new apartment in January. She just offered that as another option. She told me she brought in funds with the amnesty to buy another apartment. I guess even if the money doesn't stay in the banking system it is getting the cash out there for others to spend it.
No one knows what the exchange rate will be. No one even knows if or when the currency exchange controls will end. The more I research the more I see that they can't end the currency controls and if they try to stop manipulating the peso no one knows what will happen.
Kind of funny that Milei criticized Peronists for manipulating currency market and he is doing the same thing. Running Argentina doesn't sound easy.
earlyretirement
Moderator
There are a lot of people taking advantage of this tax amnesty. If you look at the billions that have come in and it has been extended for another month. I'm one of the ones that specifically forecasted right when President Milei was elected that he had to do an amnesty. It all happened exactly as I said it would. I also posted that it would be impossible to dollarize any time soon. I also said just ending the CEPO would be almost impossible quickly and that is also proving to be true. If you look at what they are forecasting, it doesn't sound like it will end even in the first 2 quarters of 2025.
JP Morgan just forecasted the official rate to be 1,225 to $1 USD by the end of this year and by the end of the 2nd quarter 2025 for it to be 1,550 pesos to $1. No one knows what the exchange rate will be once they finally end the CEPO but the market always figures out true value when the rate isn't being manipulated in any way.
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