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Real Estate Sales Properties: Answers to 5 key questions that reveal that the time to buy is “now” - La Nacion Propiedades

BuySellBA

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Properties: Answers to 5 key questions that reveal that the time to buy is “now” - La Nación Propiedades
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June 24, 2024

In a market that continues to add good news to the sector, there are several data that show that it is still a good time to invest in a property.

Maria Josefina Lanzi

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Properties: 6 keys that show that it is still a good time to buy a propertyGerardo Viercovich - THE NATION



The property market continues to show signs of improvement and there are several factors that reveal that it is still a good time to invest or take refuge in brick and mortar . From the decrease in the oversupply of properties, the return of mortgage loans , to the reduction of the negotiation margin between the published price and the final sale price, the real estate world is more tense than ever, with signs that indicate a recovery in prices, but that also position it as a market that continues to offer opportunities.

After property prices went through a period of loss of value and hit a historic low, the curve has now been on the rise since the middle of last year and everything indicates that it will continue to grow. Below are some key data that reveal why it is still a good deal to buy a property.


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Properties: Since the middle of last year, there has been an increasingly evident change in cycle, as property prices have slowly begun to recover.

1) Are prices still low?

One of the factors that show that the market is reactivating is the movement of prices. According to the latest Radar Inmobiliario, prepared by Fabián Achával, CEO of the eponymous real estate agency, although property prices have been on the rise, they have fallen by 33% in nominal terms since 2019 and by 45% in real terms.

They are at 2004 levels and this makes Argentine real estate an opportunity ,” says Achával, adding: “ The first to realise this were foreigners, who began to make more and more enquiries in 2023. ” He also explains that before 2018 there was not a single apartment for less than US$100,000, but in recent years “there have been many apartments for US$50,000, US$60,000 or US$70,000, so there are opportunities both in terms of ticket price and square metre value.”

2) Will values increase?

With prices falling over the past few years, for a long time the best deal for brick and mortar buyers was to keep waiting. However, since the middle of last year, a change in cycle has become increasingly evident : property prices have slowly begun to recover and the willingness to buy has increased.

This tailwind is evident in two specific data: on the one hand, in the publication values, since, according to Zonaprop, they have been slowly rising since mid-2023. Since the change in trend that occurred in June of last year, the accumulated increase in prices is 3.5% (until May 2024). Measured in year-on-year terms, in May Zonaprop registered a year-on-year increase of 4% and in Mercado Libre the increase was 5.4%.

On the other hand, as far as closing prices are concerned, there is a key indicator that anticipates the upward trend: the margin for counteroffers is increasingly smaller. “Negotiation percentages reached over 15% and today they are at 5% or less ,” says Achával. In other words, properties are sold at a value closer to the original offer, without leaving as much room for haggling.


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Properties are sold at a value closer to the original price offered, leaving less room for haggling.

However, some experts point out that this upward trend is not occurring throughout the city. “ In the neighborhoods of CABA where demand is concentrated, prices stabilized from the last quarter of last year and began to rise somewhat, but this is not applicable to all markets, since it did not increase in all neighborhoods ,” explained José Rozados, director of Reporte Inmobiliario.


It is important to highlight that the oversupply of properties is also declining , a factor that could influence the increase in prices: in May, Zonaprop recorded a reduction in available stock of 26.9% year-on-year and, compared to the maximum reached in June 2022, the decrease was 45.4% (according to Radar Inmobiliario). For its part, Argenprop experienced a year-on-year drop of 22.1% and a monthly drop of 3.5% in May. “Stock is reduced due to the increase in sales and, as there are fewer products to supply demand, prices are rising,” says Martín Boquete, director of Toribio Achával.

The increase in construction costs , which grew by more than 80% between December and March, also plays a very important role in the equation: it impacts new properties , but also other segments, since, by determining the replacement value, it affects the rest of the real estate market.

3) How will mortgage loans influence the market?

The resurgence of mortgage loans was another sign of hope for the market, as it empowered demand, which for almost five years did not have the possibility of accessing credit like those offered now. In this regard, Daniel Bryn, head of Invertire, points out: “ Each operation with a mortgage loan generates between 1.5 and 2 more real estate operations without credit ,” and explains that it benefits those who needed to sell a property to buy without credit, those who sell and buy something in short supply or brand new without a deed, or those who buy land to develop.

Rozados believes that operations will be added to the market, although only from the second half of the year, when execution in banks will be more fluid : "Although it is very auspicious, in 2024 there will still not be such a big impact, although the number of operations will increase."

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Properties: mortgage loans will help reactivate the sale of properties, as they will allow more people to access the purchase of a housefizkes - Shutterstock

“The arrival of mortgage loans has had a strong impact on the market and is excellent news, given that a considerable increase in demand for properties is expected ,” says Achával, although he adds: “I am cautious, I see an important demand factor, although I do not imagine the boom of 2017/2018, since salaries are out of balance , there are important macroeconomic challenges and high inflation.”

4) Is there a change in expectations?

In terms of demand, there have been two uninterrupted years of year-on-year growth, one of the longest trends in the sector, according to Radar Inmobiliario. In addition, the report details: “During the first four months of 2024, 11,130 sales transactions were carried out, which represents a year-on-year increase of 20.8% and the highest volume transacted since 2019.”

Figures from the Real Estate Association, from a June report, also point to good omens, in relation to market absorption and visits: in April 2024, 4.29% of the supply was signed and the number of visits in May 2024 increased by an average of 5.36% compared to the previous month. “These are very favorable data, which show a clear upward trend in the number of property sales. And we believe that this trend will continue to deepen with the help of mortgage loans and the approval of the money laundering process,” shares Alejandro Moretti, member of the Real Estate Association Observatory.

“It is very likely that it will continue to grow, month by month in the year-on-year comparison it showed growth compared to the previous year and most likely that this dynamic will continue , with something additional, given the entry of mortgage credit into the game,” says Rozados. “We are at a level of 60% increase in year-on-year inquiries, compared to 2023,” adds Fabián Achával.


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Properties: Belgrano is in the top 5 most sought-after areas to buy and rentMaria Josefina Lanzi

5) Which neighborhoods offer opportunities?

Caballito and Villa Urquiza are among the top 5 most sought-after neighborhoods for purchase , according to a Mercado Libre report for the first quarter of 2024, and the prices they offer are also attractive.

In the case of Caballito, the average value per square meter for purchase shown by Zonaprop is almost 30% below Palermo (28.9%), another of the most sought-after neighborhoods, but with prices that position it as the second most expensive in CABA. In the case of Villa Urquiza, the values fall a little less compared to Palermo (22.3%), although the numbers are also attractive.

Another neighborhood that shows promising values is the Microcentro porteño. “It is an area that I see as slow, but in the next few years there will be business, since there are properties to recycle for less than US$1000/m²,” says Boquete. In addition, if one takes into account that it is within the perimeter where mortgage loans are offered with the lowest interest rate, the area can be reconverted in the future.

When analyzing listing prices in CABA, there are five neighborhoods that remain on the podium according to Zonaprop data: Puerto Madero leads the market, with an average value per m² of US$5,891 . It is followed by Palermo , with US$3,147, Belgrano with US$2,868, Núñez with US$2,757 and Colegiales at US$2,680.

On the other hand, the five neighborhoods with the lowest prices in the city of Buenos Aires are Lugano (US$976/m²), Nueva Pompeya (US$1366 ), Villa Riachuelo (US$1446 per m²), La Boca (US$1464) and Floresta (US$1604).


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They are at 2004 levels and this makes Argentine real estate an opportunity ,” says Achával, adding: “ The first to realise this were foreigners, who began to make more and more enquiries in 2023.
Great article and it is spot on target. And they are 100% correct that it was mostly foreigners like @BuySellBA and their clients that called the real estate bottom last summer. It's not always easy to spot the bottom but nothing goes up forever and nothing goes down forever. Just like after the corralito, my company was one of the first ones that started buying real estate in Buenos Aires at scale.

Prices should have a very good run from these levels.
 
Great article and it is spot on target. And they are 100% correct that it was mostly foreigners like @BuySellBA and their clients that called the real estate bottom last summer. It's not always easy to spot the bottom but nothing goes up forever and nothing goes down forever. Just like after the corralito, my company was one of the first ones that started buying real estate in Buenos Aires at scale.

Prices should have a very good run from these levels.
Congrats @BuySellBA and @earlyretirement! I read your X posts last year when you called the bottom on prices. I wasn't sure if they would turn so quickly after the elections. Prices were falling for 4 years in a row but things did turn out just like you said it would go. You deserve credit for predicting how it would turn out.
 
No doubt all the mortgages they are offering now should speed up prices going up. It's funny because my family all made fun of me for moving here. But last year was the first time my sister inquired to possibly buy something here. She is looking now. She regrets not buying last year as prices already started to move up.
 
I'm one of those foreigners that bought last year and glad I did! Prices have gone up since then. I'm holding for the long term and doubt I will ever sell. I bought as an investment but also to come down and visit Buenos Aires more. BA is such a fun city!
 
I'm one of those foreigners that bought last year and glad I did! Prices have gone up since then. I'm holding for the long term and doubt I will ever sell. I bought as an investment but also to come down and visit Buenos Aires more. BA is such a fun city!
Congrats @Johnny I wanted to buy but talked myself out of it. Looking at some pozo properties now. Where did you end up buying in?
 
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