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Real estate market: expectations of increased demand and doubts about what will happen to prices - News Rebeat
Source:
newsrebeat.com
January 27, 2024
By Charles
After closing 2023 with 20% more sales than the previous year, the real estate market oscillates between caution and good expectations for 2024.
Some of the points that encourage real estate companies are: an incipient recovery in prices after more than four years of decline; the change of government, the repeal of the rent law and the confidence in the arrival of new investments. However, doubts remain What will really happen to property prices after the devaluation? whether mortgage lending will re-emerge and whether macroeconomic conditions will play in the sector’s favor.
For now, Ivan Ginevra, president of the Real Estate Chamber (CIA), summarizes: “The market prospects for this year are good. Of course it will depend on what happens to the macroeconomy in general. Although this year Much volatility and recession is expected in the first part of the year, It is expected that in the medium term or 2025 the country will enter a very strong economic recovery,” he says. In his opinion, the real estate market is anticipating him. “There will be growth, there will also be increases in property values and more transactions,” he enthuses.
Verónica Pagola, CEO of Century 21 Argentina, adds other factors that suggest hope for recovery: “operations and consultations have increased and the adjustment of closures is reducing, which speaks of a slight honesty in prices published and the understanding of the protagonists of the operations, fundamental to generate certainty in an increasingly volatile scenario”, he says.
“As always happens with such radical changes,” he says of the new government, “uncertainty prevails not only about the depth of this change, but also about their receptivity.”
According to Hernán Nucifora, CEO of Global Investments, there is “a first half full of expectations and a second half with a much more dynamic market”. And he specifies: “it would be imprudent to do futurology. What we can say is that starting from October the demand for real estate has marked an upward trend that had been declining for over four years, but still far from the historical operating average”.
According to the latest statistics from the College of Notaries of the Federal Capital, in 2023, 4,560 acts were carried out in the Buenos Aires area, while in 2017 a peak of 7,908 was reached. prices, these statistics show a year-over-year decline in dollar terms of 21.9% in the average value of operations.
Today the value of the average m2 in Capital Federal is approximately 1,800 US dollars, “getting ever closer to the historical average of US$2,000”, adds Nucífora. “And, compared to neighboring countries, the United States and Europe, the price per m2 in Argentina is still low. For this reason, demand is expected to continue to grow slowly in 2024.”
From the Chamber of Urban Developers (CEDU), Damian Tabakman, its president, recognizes: “we are going through a period of great changes in relative prices and this has an impact on our sector. Today we have a sharp increase in construction costs, lack of inputs in the value chain and the complex scenario of economic slowdown and inflation”.
“In the coming months we will have to digest this reality in our projects, with strong repercussions on sales, which will not be fluid, and on the collection of fees, which will be complicated”, he warns.We hope that money laundering will end and the funds can be used for constructionwhich would mitigate the negative effect,” he predicts.
According to Tabakman, “the lack of investment options in financial assets that allow us to protect ourselves from inflation, which is a reality today, also indirectly helps our sector. Once the economy has normalized and found its balance, certainly in the second half of the year, we will have a more favorable scenario which, hopefully, will lead to the advent of instruments that we have not had for a long time, such as credit mortgage.”
Irina Vecchi, director of Soldati Pilar, also bets on a positive conclusion to the year even if “to arrive We will have to go through some turbulence., especially the first semester,” he anticipates. Now “people are in a panic and trying not to fall off the boat. Since many of them fail to sell at the expected price, they try to rent their homes at unrealistic values, believing that we are still in pandemic years, and also at prices that are not validated by the state of conservation, and to make matters worse, they want a dollar bill“he describes.
“We all know that very hard months will come, even worse than the ones we find ourselves in today, and I think that In March we entered intensive care. And those who have always had high purchasing power will go and buy, because this crisis affects them sideways, and they will get real opportunities. AND Only properties that accept very aggressive offers will be sold. or those that are in perfect condition and have a corresponding market price. The rest will have to wait,” remarks Vecchi.
As regards the evolution of real estate prices, Valeria Soldati, Partner and Director of the Recoleta office of the same real estate agency, does not expect a significant recovery in prices. “Maybe there are some products that go even a little furtherand others (new developments, high-demand areas and most popular typologies) could mark a recovery,” he points out.
www.buysellba.com
Source:
Real estate market: expectations of increased demand and doubts about what will happen to prices - News Rebeat
After closing 2023 with 20% more sales than the previous year, the real estate market oscillates between caution and good expectations for 2024. Some of the points that encourage real estate companies are: an incipient recovery in prices after more than four years of decline; the change of...
newsrebeat.com
January 27, 2024
By Charles
After closing 2023 with 20% more sales than the previous year, the real estate market oscillates between caution and good expectations for 2024.
Some of the points that encourage real estate companies are: an incipient recovery in prices after more than four years of decline; the change of government, the repeal of the rent law and the confidence in the arrival of new investments. However, doubts remain What will really happen to property prices after the devaluation? whether mortgage lending will re-emerge and whether macroeconomic conditions will play in the sector’s favor.
For now, Ivan Ginevra, president of the Real Estate Chamber (CIA), summarizes: “The market prospects for this year are good. Of course it will depend on what happens to the macroeconomy in general. Although this year Much volatility and recession is expected in the first part of the year, It is expected that in the medium term or 2025 the country will enter a very strong economic recovery,” he says. In his opinion, the real estate market is anticipating him. “There will be growth, there will also be increases in property values and more transactions,” he enthuses.
Verónica Pagola, CEO of Century 21 Argentina, adds other factors that suggest hope for recovery: “operations and consultations have increased and the adjustment of closures is reducing, which speaks of a slight honesty in prices published and the understanding of the protagonists of the operations, fundamental to generate certainty in an increasingly volatile scenario”, he says.
“As always happens with such radical changes,” he says of the new government, “uncertainty prevails not only about the depth of this change, but also about their receptivity.”
According to Hernán Nucifora, CEO of Global Investments, there is “a first half full of expectations and a second half with a much more dynamic market”. And he specifies: “it would be imprudent to do futurology. What we can say is that starting from October the demand for real estate has marked an upward trend that had been declining for over four years, but still far from the historical operating average”.
According to the latest statistics from the College of Notaries of the Federal Capital, in 2023, 4,560 acts were carried out in the Buenos Aires area, while in 2017 a peak of 7,908 was reached. prices, these statistics show a year-over-year decline in dollar terms of 21.9% in the average value of operations.
Today the value of the average m2 in Capital Federal is approximately 1,800 US dollars, “getting ever closer to the historical average of US$2,000”, adds Nucífora. “And, compared to neighboring countries, the United States and Europe, the price per m2 in Argentina is still low. For this reason, demand is expected to continue to grow slowly in 2024.”
From the Chamber of Urban Developers (CEDU), Damian Tabakman, its president, recognizes: “we are going through a period of great changes in relative prices and this has an impact on our sector. Today we have a sharp increase in construction costs, lack of inputs in the value chain and the complex scenario of economic slowdown and inflation”.
“In the coming months we will have to digest this reality in our projects, with strong repercussions on sales, which will not be fluid, and on the collection of fees, which will be complicated”, he warns.We hope that money laundering will end and the funds can be used for constructionwhich would mitigate the negative effect,” he predicts.
According to Tabakman, “the lack of investment options in financial assets that allow us to protect ourselves from inflation, which is a reality today, also indirectly helps our sector. Once the economy has normalized and found its balance, certainly in the second half of the year, we will have a more favorable scenario which, hopefully, will lead to the advent of instruments that we have not had for a long time, such as credit mortgage.”
Irina Vecchi, director of Soldati Pilar, also bets on a positive conclusion to the year even if “to arrive We will have to go through some turbulence., especially the first semester,” he anticipates. Now “people are in a panic and trying not to fall off the boat. Since many of them fail to sell at the expected price, they try to rent their homes at unrealistic values, believing that we are still in pandemic years, and also at prices that are not validated by the state of conservation, and to make matters worse, they want a dollar bill“he describes.
“We all know that very hard months will come, even worse than the ones we find ourselves in today, and I think that In March we entered intensive care. And those who have always had high purchasing power will go and buy, because this crisis affects them sideways, and they will get real opportunities. AND Only properties that accept very aggressive offers will be sold. or those that are in perfect condition and have a corresponding market price. The rest will have to wait,” remarks Vecchi.
As regards the evolution of real estate prices, Valeria Soldati, Partner and Director of the Recoleta office of the same real estate agency, does not expect a significant recovery in prices. “Maybe there are some products that go even a little furtherand others (new developments, high-demand areas and most popular typologies) could mark a recovery,” he points out.
www.buysellba.com
