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The economist most listened to by Milei suggested not to rush the end of the restrictions: “I am against controls but more against social collapse” - Infobae
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El economista más escuchado por Milei sugirió no apurar la salida del cepo: “Soy enemigo de los controles pero más del colapso social”
Ricardo Arriazu disertó en las Jornadas Monetarias del Banco Central en un panel en el que estuvo acompañado por los economistas Gustavo Cañonero y Rafael Di Tella. Coincidencia en que las restricciones durarán hasta 2025
www.infobae.com
October 14, 2024
Ricardo Arriazu spoke at the Monetary Conference of the Central Bank in a panel in which he was accompanied by economists Gustavo Cañonero and Rafael Di Tella. Agreeing that the restrictions will last until 2025
By Augustin Maza
Economist Ricardo Arriazu
Economists Ricardo Arriazu , Gustavo Cañonero and Rafael Di Tella agreed that the government of Javier Milei should wait at least until 2025 to move forward with the total elimination of the exchange rate restrictions and avoid putting the incipient stability of the economy at risk, within the framework of their participation in the Monetary Conferences carried out by the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) at the Palacio Libertad .
They also pointed out that in the short term there could be a gradual dismantling of the restrictions that prevail on accessing the dollar within the framework of a continuity of the macroeconomic order. “I am an enemy of controls, but I am much more an enemy of social collapse,” warned Arriazu.
Vladimir Werning, Ricardo Arriazu, Gustavo Cañonero, Rafael Di Tella and Federico Furiase (From left to right)
For the analyst, one of those most listened to by Milei, it is impossible to separate economic policy from the political front, so "one cannot think about the program in the laboratory without seeing the political and social consequences." It is in this framework that he maintained that he is in favor of a single exchange rate, with complete freedom of access and legislation, as long as the dollar is not a unit of account, that is, not a reference for prices in the economy.
"I am against controls, but I am much more against social collapse. We have to open the door little by little and there has been progress, as in the case of payment for imports," added the economist in the panel moderated by the vice president of the BCRA, Vladimir Werning , and the director of the monetary authority, Federico Furiase .
Regarding the surplus of pesos and the remonetization scheme, Arriazu gave the government some advice: “If I could advise, I would say, go slowly with the currency controls because if my numbers are correct and there is confidence, at some point next year you will be able to decide that the exchange rate will be free. But then you have to think about how to carry out monetary policy.”
Ricardo Arriazu, Gustavo Cañonero and Rafael Di Tella
Along these lines, Cañonero, former vice president of the BCRA during the administration of the current Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo , stated that the government must build credibility that there was a change of regime in Argentina. “One has to avoid surprises and one way to measure these risks is with the excess of pesos. We must work gradually to have greater precision,” they added.
The economist said that to consolidate this path it is necessary to know what the real demand for dollars and pesos is in the country. That is why he proposed the elimination of the export dollar, known as the blend , to improve the inflow of reserves and test market demand, but maintaining the possibility of intervening in the gap, and the release for some individuals “with little firepower.”
In turn, Di Tella was in line with gradually eliminating the multiple restrictions that the dollar has in Argentina. “In Chile during the 80s there was growth with restrictions and an orderly transition to another regime. We have to think about what success would be and what are the components associated with that. My personal preference is to eliminate restrictions, but for me the key to getting to the other side of the river is to avoid surprises and I fully understand the elections,” he concluded.
