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The economy in “V”, the end of the stocks and the inflation that persists: the concerns of businessmen for the coming months - Infobae
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La economía en “V”, el fin del cepo y la inflación que persiste: las preocupaciones de los empresarios para los meses que vienen
La apertura importadora para productos de consumo masivo fue uno de los temas de la coyuntura que se colaron en la agenda del summit de AmCham de este año. El debate sobre cómo hacer “viable” a la economía argentina
www.infobae.com
March 13, 2024
The opening of imports for mass consumption products was one of the current issues that made it onto the agenda of this year's AmCham summit. The debate on how to make the Argentine economy “viable”
By Mariano Boetter
The annual event brought together politicians, businessmen and executives of US companies in the country (Adrián Escandar)
The AmCham Summit, the now traditional annual event of the North American commercial chamber in Argentina, was crossed in this edition by a situation that slipped into its agenda: inflation, with the February CPI that was known seconds after the Minister Luis Caputo will come off the stage , and the news that caused a surprise - for the worse - among businessmen due to the announcement of the opening of imports for basic basket products .
The summit of business men and women headed by companies of American origin with operations in the country focused, in some of its panels and as a general idea that hovered throughout the day, on how to make Argentina “viable.” That is, a step beyond what a government should do to stabilize and order the macro but how to ensure that this process can be sustained over time. It is a way of approaching the direction that the libertarian administration gives to its economic policy, which in general terms has the approval of the executive audience but which raises some doubts on the horizon.
The summit of business men and women headed by companies of American origin with operations in the country focused, in some of its panels and as a general idea that hovered throughout the day, on how to make Argentina “viable.” That is, a step beyond what a government should do to stabilize and order the macro but how to ensure that this process can be sustained over time. It is a way of approaching the direction that the libertarian administration gives to its economic policy, which in general terms has the approval of the executive audience but which raises some doubts on the horizon.
Both on the stage where a dozen panels touched on topics such as energy, mining, the relationship between the Casa Rosada, the governors and Congress, education, the bioeconomy, unions in the new libertarian political process, bioeconomy and innovation, as Also coffee in hand in the large pavilion of the Buenos Aires Convention Center, there was a main concern about the coming months of the economy.
It is about how sustainable Milei and Caputo's new economic model will be if it does not get enough political support in Congress and the governors. And, in addition, the question arose as to whether there are real chances that the economy, after hitting bottom at some point in March or April, will begin an escalation that forms that “V” in the graph of economic activity that the Government expects.
"Toto" Caputo, Minister of Economy (Nicolás Stulberg)
“I don't think it's a 'V', just because yes, it's hard for me to see it,” said a banker, who acknowledged that there may be a much stronger appetite for financial investments in this context than in the real economy. “There is a lack of credibility and this is a long process,” he concluded.
Not the “V”?
In other areas, more linked to the real economy, the account did not give either: “I imagine in any case a 'U' or an 'L',” mentioned another representative of an energy firm. Another ruled out the formula for recovering construction, manufacturing and consumption. “You only have investment and exports left,” he reasoned.Some reports from consulting firms that circulated among the businessmen present at the AmCham Summit reflected with numbers the certainty that the worst part of the adjustment has not yet been translated into the activity numbers. “Advanced February data related to the collection, production and registration of cars, construction indicators and exports to Brazil continue to show strong year-on-year declines, although some of them are decelerating compared to January,” Cohen assured.
But it seems that the executives have identified what would be a starting point that in the coming months will act as a green light and as a starting signal for the economy and investment decisions: the exit from the exchange rate trap. Some seem more anxious than others, but this Tuesday Caputo ruled out putting a date on this economic policy step: “We understand the anxiety, but we don't want to take unnecessary risks,” he told the businessmen.
Facundo Gómez Minujín, president of AmCham (Adrián Escándar)
The head of a multinational energy company assured that the headquarters closely follow any Argentine news, that the direction the economy took with Milei "generates a lot of enthusiasm." He also noted that they are waiting, in any case, for a measure that international firms have been waiting for for a long time: permission to transfer currency abroad. At the moment there are no details on how the economic team would seek to address this issue once it lifts the exchange restrictions. Would there be a gradual scheme like with the import debt through Bopreal or with the staggered payment scheme for imports? In the private sector they are not yet clear.
February inflation was known just after Caputo finished his speech, in which he said that macro conditions are already preparing the ground for single-digit inflation in the middle of the year but that in March, if the drag were removed from the equation Statistically, the rate would already be one digit monthly. “I thought it was going to go down faster,” said a consultant with clients in private sector companies and provincial governments.
The AmCham Summit, unlike previous years, was held in this case in March, when it is usually between April and May. According to the organizers, it was anticipated so that the officials of the new government could present their management vision to the executive audience a few months after taking office.
The CEO of AmCham, Alejandro Díaz , commented on the most pronounced and reiterated words throughout the day, and they seem to mark with what eyes companies look at the style and way of exercising the power that the libertarian government has. The two main words were dialogue and leadership. “Dialogue and the ability to reach a consensus on long-term public policies, and leadership, which is needed for a viable Argentina,” Díaz summarized.
In an Executive Branch that does not avoid conflict, those words take on special weight to shape the expectations of the coming months.
