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The fixed term is emerging as a winner against the dollar for the third month, despite the drop in rates - Infobae
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El plazo fijo se perfila como ganador contra el dólar por tercer mes, pese a la baja de tasas
La rentabilidad de los depósitos quedó debajo del 6% mensual, aún lejos de una inflación de dos dígitos. Pero medida en dólares sigue siendo una apuesta ganadora debido a la sorprendente estabilidad cambiaria
www.infobae.com
April 04, 2024
The profitability of deposits remained below 6% monthly, still far from double-digit inflation. But measured in dollars it is still a winning bet due to the surprising exchange rate stability
Although the profitability of the fixed term loses against inflation, it continues to beat the dollar (Credit Shutterstock)
While parallel dollars maintain price weakness, to the point that they are now paid practically at the same price as in December, the fixed term appears as a winning and at the same time conservative investment against the greenback, in this traditional bid between the two options most used by small savers in Argentina.
A peculiarity that is occurring in 2024 is that the interest rate in pesos is not working in favor of deposits and, however, the dollar is not rising. Generally, a drop in rates – negative compared to double-digit monthly inflation – is followed by an upward jump for free dollars, something that did not happen this year. And when the rate rises, fixed-term deposits strengthen and the dollar falls. However, the free dollar and stock prices gave ground after the rate cut.
April is emerging as the third consecutive month in which the fixed term can beat the dollar . Suffice it to note that the free dollar is negotiated at $1,005 for sale, five pesos below the close of February and 20 pesos less than on December 29, the last trading round of last year.
With the reduction in the monetary policy rate implemented by the Central Bank on March 12, from 100% annual nominal to 80%, the yields of fixed terms also fell, from 110% to 70% annual nominal. This means for the saver a monthly interest rate on their fixed-term deposit of around 6%, still far from retail inflation in the area of 10 percent.
In this sense, the benefit of leaving the pesos in the bank is through the gain measured in dollars , since inflation is taking advantage of both savings options. In 2024, accumulated inflation already reaches 50%, against 25% that the traditional fixed term yielded, and -2% that the free dollar yielded.
Since March 12, the fixed term has offered a lower profitability than previous months as a result of a release of rates that, at this time, has an average monthly yield of 5.75 percent .
It happens that the monetary authority eliminated the minimum rate on fixed terms, with the aim of promoting "greater competition in the banking field and providing consumers with more favorable conditions for their savings and investments."
Throughout March, the informal dollar accumulated a loss of $20 or 1.9%, the second consecutive monthly drop – it had lost $165 or 13.8% in February. And the trend does not seem to be able to be reversed in April, a month that is characterized by the strong entry of dollars into the economy with the beginning of the thick harvest and an increase in the volume of exports.
If a saver decided to allocate 1 million pesos to purchase dollars in the free market at the beginning of the year, they will have earned USD 975.61. Converted today to pesos it is $980,488, less than the original amount.
4Whoever made a traditional fixed term, and taking into account the estimated variation in return rates, would have transformed the million pesos into approximately $1,250,000 in three months. With this capital he could buy USD 1,243.78 today in the informal market. This is an estimated gain of 27.5% in dollars in three months .
However, measured by inflation, the benefit of the fixed term was not such, since in the face of an accumulated inflation of 50% in the first quarter of the year, the $1,250,000 of capital plus interest is, in real terms, 16.7% less than the original million pesos that were at the beginning of 2024.
