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The secrets behind real estate cycles that anticipate where properties will rise and why - La Nacion Propiedades
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www.lanacion.com.ar
November 25, 2024
The real estate market is in a microclimate of growth and some neighborhoods are the first to rise in price, which are
By Maria Josefina Lanzi
The neighborhoods where if you want to get a loan, you should do it now, because they are the first ones that will increase in priceRicardo Pristupluk
In a real estate market driven by the push for mortgage loans, knowing where and what to buy is key, and understanding certain price dynamics is also key. “We are living in a time where both listing prices and closing prices are showing an increase , the product of a microclimate of growth in the real estate market, where many factors come together,” says Fabián Achával, from the eponymous real estate agency, explaining that the main driver is that prices “remain historically low.” Added to this is the change in expectations, the impact of mortgage loans and money laundering, “which has proven to be quite successful.”
In this context, brokers agree that when deciding what to buy and where to buy, it is necessary to differentiate between high- and low-ticket properties. Why? The properties that react first to the rise are the most expensive.
“ When prices go up, the increase is slower in the neighborhoods where the square meter is lower and faster in the neighborhoods where the tickets are higher,” answers Martín Boquete, director of Toribio Achával. From another angle, Daniel Obetko, manager of Interwin's premium residential area, complements the analysis: “Whenever market prices go down, they do so faster in the cheap areas while in the more expensive ones they go down less and more slowly.
Daniel Bryn, partner at Zipcode, shares Boquete's view and explains: “ The first to rise are properties located in neighborhoods such as Palermo, Barrio Norte, Recoleta or Belgrano, and the lower-value areas also experience a price increase, but after a period of market recovery.”
Recoleta, one of the neighborhoods with the highest prices on the marketMatthew Williams-Ellis
“Recoleta, Palermo, Belgrano and Núñez are neighborhoods that always react well to positive changes in the market and where we expect the value of properties to be boosted with the arrival of mortgage loans,” adds Lisandro de Achával, director of Achával Cornejo.
The appeal of all these areas lies in the infrastructure and connectivity such as “transport, health services, educational offerings and security,” Obetko explains. He also explains that these neighbourhoods have an intangible value, linked to the fact that living in certain places like Palermo is “ cool .”
On the other hand, the less sought-after neighborhoods increase in price, but the trickle-down increase occurs after a while, especially considering that the requirements that must be met to apply for a loan today are still high and salaries have not risen at the rate of inflation. “Generally, the average income in these neighborhoods is low, so not everyone qualifies for a loan, which requires that the installment represent no more than 25% of the salary,” explains Bryn and details: “At the time of Macri’s UVA loans, if in one month there was an increase in Palermo, in other more peripheral neighborhoods the increase came six months later.”
Properties around Plaza Alemania, in PalermoDolores Pasman
Palermo is a "cool" neighborhood, which attracts with its gastronomic offer and nightlife
However, this increase in prices will not be immediate, since, as Miguel Chej Muse, from the Colegio Inmobiliario, explains: “The market is still low, in the next two years we will have a 20/25% increase in dollar values.” For now, brokers agree that there are already fewer counteroffer margins (5%), so closing prices end up close to the published values. “ The owner sees that the market is reactivating, sees more movement and visits to their properties, so they stand firm in the negotiation,” explains Franco Moretti, broker from Di Mitrio Inmobiliaria and adds: “An apartment that we were advertising for US$75,000 ended up closing at US$73,000, when before it was advertised cheaper and sold for US$60,000.”
The cost of construction in dollars is another factor responsible for the increase in prices, since it is an index that, according to Germán Gómez Picasso, founder of Reporte Inmobiliario, “has accumulated a growth in dollars of between 60 and 70% so far this year.” In this way, new real estate developments are sold at higher prices and the price of used ones is also increasing.
Mortgage credit boosted the arrival of new demandfizkes - Shutterstock
However, since the arrival of mortgage loans, the real estate market has changed and brokers agree that transactions will grow. “People who would otherwise have been left out of any possibility of purchasing are joining the demand, so the market will multiply ,” says Boquete, from Toribio Achával. In any case, he clarifies that the conditions for taking out a mortgage loan are still high today, but as interest rates fall or prepayment costs change, demand will be boosted in other neighborhoods and prices will also rise in places that are less in demand today.
The new buyer who joined the game with the exit of mortgage loans will be able to access the purchase of a home, but “ when they finish defining how much they can lend them, in many cases it will not be enough to buy in Palermo, Recoleta or Núñez, so they will look in cheaper neighborhoods ,” Obetko details. If we add the fact that property listing prices have risen by 7.2% since October 2023, according to Zonaprop data, migration or interest in lower-ticket neighborhoods becomes somewhat more likely.
Chacarita is a neighborhood next to Palermo that has had an increasing demand in recent times.Manuel Cascallar
This may lead those interested in Palermo, which has an average m² price of US$3,212, to look for properties in neighboring Chacarita, which has prices 20% lower (US$2,557 ), a neighborhood that has positioned itself for its ability to create its own microclimate with a gastronomic offering and nightlife.
This phenomenon could also be replicated for the fanatical demand for Belgrano, where properties are around US$3,030/m² and, given the impossibility of reaching the average price of these units, they opt for nearby areas such as Villa Urquiza (with a m² at US$2,551). The same could occur for those who had their eye on Villa Devoto (with a m² at US$2,477) and who are now interested in its neighbor Villa del Parque (US$2,096 per m²).
In short, these are neighbourhoods where demand could increase and, therefore, little by little, impact the price of properties. “Mortgage credit can redefine the demand map, making areas that are not currently sought after more sought after and, in the long run, causing prices to rise in all neighbourhoods,” Boquete concludes.
www.buysllba.com
Source:
Los secretos detrás de los ciclos inmobiliarios que anticipan dónde aumentarán las propiedades y por qué
El mercado inmobiliario está en un microclima de crecimiento y algunos barrios son los primeros que subirán de precio, cuáles son
www.lanacion.com.ar
November 25, 2024
The real estate market is in a microclimate of growth and some neighborhoods are the first to rise in price, which are
By Maria Josefina Lanzi
The neighborhoods where if you want to get a loan, you should do it now, because they are the first ones that will increase in priceRicardo Pristupluk
In a real estate market driven by the push for mortgage loans, knowing where and what to buy is key, and understanding certain price dynamics is also key. “We are living in a time where both listing prices and closing prices are showing an increase , the product of a microclimate of growth in the real estate market, where many factors come together,” says Fabián Achával, from the eponymous real estate agency, explaining that the main driver is that prices “remain historically low.” Added to this is the change in expectations, the impact of mortgage loans and money laundering, “which has proven to be quite successful.”
In this context, brokers agree that when deciding what to buy and where to buy, it is necessary to differentiate between high- and low-ticket properties. Why? The properties that react first to the rise are the most expensive.
“ When prices go up, the increase is slower in the neighborhoods where the square meter is lower and faster in the neighborhoods where the tickets are higher,” answers Martín Boquete, director of Toribio Achával. From another angle, Daniel Obetko, manager of Interwin's premium residential area, complements the analysis: “Whenever market prices go down, they do so faster in the cheap areas while in the more expensive ones they go down less and more slowly.
Daniel Bryn, partner at Zipcode, shares Boquete's view and explains: “ The first to rise are properties located in neighborhoods such as Palermo, Barrio Norte, Recoleta or Belgrano, and the lower-value areas also experience a price increase, but after a period of market recovery.”
Recoleta, one of the neighborhoods with the highest prices on the marketMatthew Williams-Ellis
“Recoleta, Palermo, Belgrano and Núñez are neighborhoods that always react well to positive changes in the market and where we expect the value of properties to be boosted with the arrival of mortgage loans,” adds Lisandro de Achával, director of Achával Cornejo.
The appeal of all these areas lies in the infrastructure and connectivity such as “transport, health services, educational offerings and security,” Obetko explains. He also explains that these neighbourhoods have an intangible value, linked to the fact that living in certain places like Palermo is “ cool .”
On the other hand, the less sought-after neighborhoods increase in price, but the trickle-down increase occurs after a while, especially considering that the requirements that must be met to apply for a loan today are still high and salaries have not risen at the rate of inflation. “Generally, the average income in these neighborhoods is low, so not everyone qualifies for a loan, which requires that the installment represent no more than 25% of the salary,” explains Bryn and details: “At the time of Macri’s UVA loans, if in one month there was an increase in Palermo, in other more peripheral neighborhoods the increase came six months later.”
Properties around Plaza Alemania, in PalermoDolores Pasman
Palermo is a "cool" neighborhood, which attracts with its gastronomic offer and nightlife
However, this increase in prices will not be immediate, since, as Miguel Chej Muse, from the Colegio Inmobiliario, explains: “The market is still low, in the next two years we will have a 20/25% increase in dollar values.” For now, brokers agree that there are already fewer counteroffer margins (5%), so closing prices end up close to the published values. “ The owner sees that the market is reactivating, sees more movement and visits to their properties, so they stand firm in the negotiation,” explains Franco Moretti, broker from Di Mitrio Inmobiliaria and adds: “An apartment that we were advertising for US$75,000 ended up closing at US$73,000, when before it was advertised cheaper and sold for US$60,000.”
The cost of construction in dollars is another factor responsible for the increase in prices, since it is an index that, according to Germán Gómez Picasso, founder of Reporte Inmobiliario, “has accumulated a growth in dollars of between 60 and 70% so far this year.” In this way, new real estate developments are sold at higher prices and the price of used ones is also increasing.
Surrounding areas that could be reactivated
“A new buyer appeared that didn’t exist before, that had been out of the market since 2018,” says Gómez Picasso and explains that, from that year until April 2024 – the time when mortgage credit ceased in Argentina – those who bought a property were investors or those who had enough savings to pay for it in cash. This public had access to the purchase of properties that were located in the best neighborhoods with the highest values, so prices in those areas did not drop as much.
Mortgage credit boosted the arrival of new demandfizkes - Shutterstock
However, since the arrival of mortgage loans, the real estate market has changed and brokers agree that transactions will grow. “People who would otherwise have been left out of any possibility of purchasing are joining the demand, so the market will multiply ,” says Boquete, from Toribio Achával. In any case, he clarifies that the conditions for taking out a mortgage loan are still high today, but as interest rates fall or prepayment costs change, demand will be boosted in other neighborhoods and prices will also rise in places that are less in demand today.
The new buyer who joined the game with the exit of mortgage loans will be able to access the purchase of a home, but “ when they finish defining how much they can lend them, in many cases it will not be enough to buy in Palermo, Recoleta or Núñez, so they will look in cheaper neighborhoods ,” Obetko details. If we add the fact that property listing prices have risen by 7.2% since October 2023, according to Zonaprop data, migration or interest in lower-ticket neighborhoods becomes somewhat more likely.
Chacarita is a neighborhood next to Palermo that has had an increasing demand in recent times.Manuel Cascallar
This may lead those interested in Palermo, which has an average m² price of US$3,212, to look for properties in neighboring Chacarita, which has prices 20% lower (US$2,557 ), a neighborhood that has positioned itself for its ability to create its own microclimate with a gastronomic offering and nightlife.
This phenomenon could also be replicated for the fanatical demand for Belgrano, where properties are around US$3,030/m² and, given the impossibility of reaching the average price of these units, they opt for nearby areas such as Villa Urquiza (with a m² at US$2,551). The same could occur for those who had their eye on Villa Devoto (with a m² at US$2,477) and who are now interested in its neighbor Villa del Parque (US$2,096 per m²).
In short, these are neighbourhoods where demand could increase and, therefore, little by little, impact the price of properties. “Mortgage credit can redefine the demand map, making areas that are not currently sought after more sought after and, in the long run, causing prices to rise in all neighbourhoods,” Boquete concludes.
www.buysllba.com
