Justin
New member
The start of the year defines Milei's game: message to the hard core and limited vision of electoral support - Infobae
Source:
January 03, 2024
By Eduardo Aulicino
Victoria Villarruel faces her first test, less complicated than Deputies. Open the game with the Single Paper Ballot
The debut of the new Senate and the tension and uncertainty in the Deputies illustrate in some way the political test that it faces Javier Milei at the beginning of the year. Of course, there is a substantial difference on the density of the issues to be discussed -Single Paper Ballot and mega bill- in each Chamber. But equally clear is the contrast between the margin to build a mechanism adjusted to political fragmentation and the intention to put pressure considering that the broad support at the polls represents the same thing as the core hard initial support. The latter would reflect a poor reading of the first electoral round and the resounding victory in the runoff.
In the chamber chaired by Victoria Villarruel they are preparing to discuss the single ballot project, a change in the electoral system that for more than a year was boxed in by Peronism/Kirchnerism. The former ruling party wants to fight not only over the issue, but as the first sign of rejection of Milei's plans. And the new ruling party is committed to generating legislative success this week, in the face of the complex panorama of the omnibus law in Deputies, crossed by tensions and internal of different nature.
The two wings of Congress present different pictures and, in fact, the issues to be discussed immediately are decisive. The text of the single ballot generates nuanced support positions, in the arc that goes from LLA to the blocks of the UCR, the PRO and other sectors who maintain an attitude of expectation, criticism, in relation to the President's first movements. It's not the only thing.
The original political data was constituted by the agreement of that heterogeneous legislative map to impose authorities and the effective management of the Senate in the face of the claims of Union for the Homeland, now without Cristina Fernández de Kirchner in the Chamber although with strong personal influence. It will be necessary to see if the same agreement works to impose a commission opinion and then the vote in the chamber on the reform expressed by the BUP. In any case, it is very difficult to project something similar in another area if the Government maintains the idea of pushing a closed book its mega project of reforms -economic, social, pension, health, educational, among others- and legislative delegation.
Milei is putting pressure so far with a black and white message - the last one, on the national network - according to which the dispute is between a profound change and an impoverishing model, with the economy meters from the precipice. In Congress there are doubts, even among possible supporters of many reforms, about whether there will be negotiation or whether we are on the threshold of a battle with the Legislative Branch.
The pressure is felt from the start in the Deputies because, of course, it is the first and determining scale of the omnibus law. The Senate, it is also clear, starts with a less conflictive issue, at least for the broad group that imposed conditions after years of Kirchnerist dominance. It is a construction that many describe as precarious or at least temporary. Ultimately, it will depend on the negotiation capacity and the levels of agreement, issue by issue.
Martín Menen with Guillermo Francos. He received the mega bill: a difficult challenge
The deputies are going to a different battle. The UxP bloc remains united in rejecting the mega project and, at the same time, the DNU. The ruling party, as in the Senate, does not have the numerical capacity to impose majorities. The wide range that remains expresses nuances: the PRO does not hide internal and other blocks - the UCR, the new space headed by Miguel Angel Pichetto, provincial sectors and others - will be decisive. But there is no single line, although it is quite defined that issues such as legislative delegation, retirements and other sensitive points that also involve provinces would not accompany without changes.
At first glance, these are consequences or reactions to very different bills that senators and deputies immediately have before them. However, one can also note a fundamental issue: the possibility of creating consensus or not, which, if achieved, makes management a post-electoral map. strange, the result of fractions far from a majority in the first round and, later, of an endorsement without precedent to the winner in the runoff.
The impact of each electoral turn is not the same and it is not only due to its expression in Congress. That first round - like the PASO before - drew a division into three stripes, although not exact thirds. In the primaries (August), the order was LLA, JxC and UxP. And in the first round (October), Sergio Massa displaced the libertarian candidate and Patricia Bullrich< at i=8> was left out. But in the next and last chapter (November), Milei climbed to almost 56 points.
That is, in the runoff he added about 26 points to the result he had achieved in the first round and before in the primaries, in the two cases around 30%. It is true that the double round system forces, if necessary, a definition by more than half of the votes. And it is also true that the figure reached by Milei on Massa is really significant, of high impact.
The President moves with that endorsement, also fueled by some image polls and confidence indices that did not take long to reach him. It is powerful data, but it should not be analyzed with a narrow focus. The background of the other two elections, in addition to its legislative expression, poses a challenge for the way of understanding management and the conception of power.... a>
The point, ultimately, is whether your message is focused exclusively on its hard core or whether it is expanded to the convergence that at the polls made him climb well above half plus one of the votes, with the addition of negotiations that in fact include governors and other Peronist expressions.
Public numbers and positions should not confuse. That support achieved in the runoff, above its electorate of the PASO and the first round, cannot be assimilated to a single sector either. Not even within the PRO. Congress, even with distortions, reflects that broad picture. This political summer will end up showing degrees of hardness or flexibility to interpret each electoral chapter and the most comprehensive message that they suggest together.
Source:
January 03, 2024
Congress is the scene of a central test. The characteristics of the issues in each Chamber influence. But the underlying issue continues to be the complex political signal of the polls: only 56% of the runoff is valid or is it also considered 30% of the primaries and the first round
By Eduardo Aulicino
Victoria Villarruel faces her first test, less complicated than Deputies. Open the game with the Single Paper Ballot
The debut of the new Senate and the tension and uncertainty in the Deputies illustrate in some way the political test that it faces Javier Milei at the beginning of the year. Of course, there is a substantial difference on the density of the issues to be discussed -Single Paper Ballot and mega bill- in each Chamber. But equally clear is the contrast between the margin to build a mechanism adjusted to political fragmentation and the intention to put pressure considering that the broad support at the polls represents the same thing as the core hard initial support. The latter would reflect a poor reading of the first electoral round and the resounding victory in the runoff.
In the chamber chaired by Victoria Villarruel they are preparing to discuss the single ballot project, a change in the electoral system that for more than a year was boxed in by Peronism/Kirchnerism. The former ruling party wants to fight not only over the issue, but as the first sign of rejection of Milei's plans. And the new ruling party is committed to generating legislative success this week, in the face of the complex panorama of the omnibus law in Deputies, crossed by tensions and internal of different nature.
The two wings of Congress present different pictures and, in fact, the issues to be discussed immediately are decisive. The text of the single ballot generates nuanced support positions, in the arc that goes from LLA to the blocks of the UCR, the PRO and other sectors who maintain an attitude of expectation, criticism, in relation to the President's first movements. It's not the only thing.
The original political data was constituted by the agreement of that heterogeneous legislative map to impose authorities and the effective management of the Senate in the face of the claims of Union for the Homeland, now without Cristina Fernández de Kirchner in the Chamber although with strong personal influence. It will be necessary to see if the same agreement works to impose a commission opinion and then the vote in the chamber on the reform expressed by the BUP. In any case, it is very difficult to project something similar in another area if the Government maintains the idea of pushing a closed book its mega project of reforms -economic, social, pension, health, educational, among others- and legislative delegation.
Milei is putting pressure so far with a black and white message - the last one, on the national network - according to which the dispute is between a profound change and an impoverishing model, with the economy meters from the precipice. In Congress there are doubts, even among possible supporters of many reforms, about whether there will be negotiation or whether we are on the threshold of a battle with the Legislative Branch.
The pressure is felt from the start in the Deputies because, of course, it is the first and determining scale of the omnibus law. The Senate, it is also clear, starts with a less conflictive issue, at least for the broad group that imposed conditions after years of Kirchnerist dominance. It is a construction that many describe as precarious or at least temporary. Ultimately, it will depend on the negotiation capacity and the levels of agreement, issue by issue.
Martín Menen with Guillermo Francos. He received the mega bill: a difficult challenge
The deputies are going to a different battle. The UxP bloc remains united in rejecting the mega project and, at the same time, the DNU. The ruling party, as in the Senate, does not have the numerical capacity to impose majorities. The wide range that remains expresses nuances: the PRO does not hide internal and other blocks - the UCR, the new space headed by Miguel Angel Pichetto, provincial sectors and others - will be decisive. But there is no single line, although it is quite defined that issues such as legislative delegation, retirements and other sensitive points that also involve provinces would not accompany without changes.
At first glance, these are consequences or reactions to very different bills that senators and deputies immediately have before them. However, one can also note a fundamental issue: the possibility of creating consensus or not, which, if achieved, makes management a post-electoral map. strange, the result of fractions far from a majority in the first round and, later, of an endorsement without precedent to the winner in the runoff.
The impact of each electoral turn is not the same and it is not only due to its expression in Congress. That first round - like the PASO before - drew a division into three stripes, although not exact thirds. In the primaries (August), the order was LLA, JxC and UxP. And in the first round (October), Sergio Massa displaced the libertarian candidate and Patricia Bullrich< at i=8> was left out. But in the next and last chapter (November), Milei climbed to almost 56 points.
That is, in the runoff he added about 26 points to the result he had achieved in the first round and before in the primaries, in the two cases around 30%. It is true that the double round system forces, if necessary, a definition by more than half of the votes. And it is also true that the figure reached by Milei on Massa is really significant, of high impact.
The President moves with that endorsement, also fueled by some image polls and confidence indices that did not take long to reach him. It is powerful data, but it should not be analyzed with a narrow focus. The background of the other two elections, in addition to its legislative expression, poses a challenge for the way of understanding management and the conception of power.... a>
The point, ultimately, is whether your message is focused exclusively on its hard core or whether it is expanded to the convergence that at the polls made him climb well above half plus one of the votes, with the addition of negotiations that in fact include governors and other Peronist expressions.
Public numbers and positions should not confuse. That support achieved in the runoff, above its electorate of the PASO and the first round, cannot be assimilated to a single sector either. Not even within the PRO. Congress, even with distortions, reflects that broad picture. This political summer will end up showing degrees of hardness or flexibility to interpret each electoral chapter and the most comprehensive message that they suggest together.
