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Today the inflation rate for April is announced: they expect it to be in single digits for the first time in six months - Infobae
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Hoy se anuncia el índice de inflación de abril: prevén que sea de un solo dígito por primera vez en seis meses
Las consultoras privadas prevén que en abril la inflación vuelva a desacelerarse. El REM del Banco Central estimó un promedio de 9 por ciento. La suba de tarifas de servicios tuvieron un gran impacto
www.infobae.com
May 14, 2024
Private consulting firms predict that inflation will slow down again in April. The Central Bank's REM estimated an average of 9 percent. The rise in service rates had a great impact
In April, food inflation would have been 6.8%, according to C&T (Europa Press)
After 11% in March, Indec will publish April inflation this Tuesday and private consultants expect it to return to single digits.
It would be the first time in 7 months that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell below two figures, a trend that could not be broken since October 2023, when inflation was 8.3%. Later, in the midst of the presidential elections, it rose to 12.8% in November and after the devaluation of the exchange rate it accelerated to 25.5% in December, 20.6% in January, 13.2% in February and 11%. in March.
Now, for April the Market Expectations Survey (REM) carried out by the Central Bank indicates an inflation of 9%.
REM monthly inflation expectations
For its part, the C&T CPI for the Greater Buenos Aires region presented a monthly increase of 8.7% in April, following the downward trend of recent months. In turn, the interannual variation was 298.1%. “As happened in February and March, we estimate that inflation at the national level will be lower than in the GBA due to the greater impact of the tariffs,” said Camilo Tiscornia 's consultant .
The item with the greatest weight would have been food and beverages with an increase of 6.8% in the month, with a great predominance of baked goods, meats and dairy products.
For Invecq , inflation continued to slow in April. The CPI prepared by the consulting firm indicated that inflation in April was 9.5% monthly.
For its part, the consulting firm Orlando J. Ferreres & Asociados recorded an inflation of 9.6%. “As for the main items, Housing and Education led the increases for the month, with monthly increases of 53.6% and 9.6% respectively, followed by Food and Beverages and Clothing, which presented a variation of 6.5% and 5.8% respectively,” their report indicated.
The CPI of the Freedom and Progress Foundation showed an increase of 8.4% in April, slowing down 2.6 percentage points compared to March. In this way, in the first four months of the year the CPI accumulates a rise of 64.4%. The interannual variation reaches 287.8%, similar to the previous month's data.
In turn, core inflation marked a strong slowdown compared to the previous month, reaching 4.4% and reaching its lowest monthly variation since January 2022. For its part, regulated inflation registered an increase of close to 18%.
Ecolatina estimated an inflation of 8.9% for GBA driven by the rate increase. Nationally they expect a number closer to 8 than 9 percent.
Meanwhile, EcoGo estimated that April inflation was 8.8%, accumulating an increase of 66.2% in the first four months of the year and presenting a year-on-year variation of 304.4%.
“The tension between the slowdown in activity and the increase in regulated prices continues in April, with a dynamic where the fall in real wages is compounded by the correction of relative prices, which forces the redistribution of spending in favor of regulated services and leaves little room for consumption,” the consulting firm stated.
“In this sense, the categories that experienced the smallest increases were those linked to non-essential consumption such as recreation, equipment and home maintenance - where also the change in expectations about the evolution of a dollar that remains crawling at 2% plays in favor-, and clothing,” they added.
In contrast, the item with the greatest increase was Housing with 49.1%, driven by the strong increases in gas and electricity rates, added to the joint rates of those in charge of buildings.
Inflation in CABA
Due to the increase, the only official data for April is the Consumer Price Index of the City of Buenos Aires (IPCBA), which reached 9.8%, accumulating an increase of 72.6% in the first quarter and registering a variation year-on-year of 292.5%, according to the General Directorate of Statistics and Censuses of Buenos Aires. In the fourth month of the year, the food and beverage category grew 5.1%, well below the general level.According to the General Directorate of Statistics and Censuses of the City of Buenos Aires, the increase “responded fundamentally to increases in the following divisions: Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, Health, Food and non-alcoholic beverages, Information and communication and Restaurants and hotels.” These items “explained 75% of the increase in the General Level.”
María Eugenia Lago , head of the organization, expressed that there is “a constant decrease in the inflation rate in the City from the 21.1% observed in December 2023. April is the fourth consecutive month of decline in the index, which is located at single digit for the first time since July of last year.”
“It is important data because the index reflects a downward trend. However, the increase in some items, mainly those linked to public service, transportation and food rates, maintains pressure on the measurements,” clarified the Buenos Aires government official.
