Wall Street Guru says Peso is very overvalued and needs to fall

[Larry]

I don't think it takes a Wall street guru to point out that the Argentine peso is way way overvalued. If Trump imposes any tariffs the peso will free fall.

El duro pronóstico de un gurú de Wall Street sobre el dólar en la Argentina

Para el economista Robin Brooks, si Donald Trump pone fuertes aranceles sobre China, habrá devaluaciones en todos los mercados emergentes; advirtió que el peso argentino está “muy sobrevaluado” y que “necesita caer”

www.lanacion.com.ar

 

[Blockchain]

Well this guy has been saying this for a while now. Argentina has had the strongest currency in the world the past year. Robin has a point about Brazil weakening the most being right next door. Everyone I met in BA that I chat with on Whatsapp all say the peso is overvalued and expect some devaluation. It doesn't make sense that prices can be as high as US on local salaries.

I mean come on they are charging $9.25 bucks for a hot dog! And $4.50 bucks for a coffee in Palermo. Doesn't make sense to me.

 

[Betsy Ross]

I don't think there is anyone that doesn't agree that the peso is too strong right now. No one really knows what will happen. I would expect about Trump gets in office Argentina will probably get some fresh funds from the IMF. I don't think they can end the currency controls for a while.

 

[Uncle Wong]

Here is another guy that keeps saying the dollar is way overvalued. He sure does a lot of eating out for complaining about prices. He is also complaining of 347% inflation in dollars from last year to this year. But he didn't even order the same things.

 

[Bharat]

All are saying peso is way way way overvalued. I don't understand how this will turn out good if the government is just artificially propping up the peso.

Won't there be an eventual devaluation? Maybe Argentines are benefitting now but won't it be worse in the future?
I am having a hard time wrapping my head around this. Once they release currency controls I would think the blue rate will go up?

How can Argentina be competitive with their currency so high?

 

[Larry]

All are saying peso is way way way overvalued. I don't understand how this will turn out good if the government is just artificially propping up the peso.

Won't there be an eventual devaluation? Maybe Argentines are benefitting now but won't it be worse in the future?
I am having a hard time wrapping my head around this. Once they release currency controls I would think the blue rate will go up?

How can Argentina be competitive with their currency so high?

This is not sustainable at the 2% official peg and going to 1%. Going to be tough to grow the economy this way over the long term. I don't know anyone at all that really believes the peso should be this strong but everyone just goes along with the charade. Eventually it will fall.

 

[David]

The only good thing about inflation stopping dead in its track is that stores and individuals can't use the excuse of inflation for constantly raising prices so exorbitantly. Inflation was so bad before that they always used that and everyone shrugged their shoulders and just accepted it.

Now that can't happen. Prices are still high and need to come down. Many stores haven't accepted that new reality. But at least prices can't go up much because people won't consume. People already slowed down purchases. Other things can be ordered from China. Takes longer but this will cause prices to fall too.

I am willing to suffer and pay higher prices if that is the price to pay for fixing things. I also believe that the peso is too strong but this can stay this way for a long time. Argentina was 1:1 for 10 years earlier.