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Winning and losing sectors: which ones will end the year with growth and which ones will have to wait until 2025 - Infobae
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Sectores ganadores y perdedores: cuáles van a terminar el año con crecimiento y cuáles deberán esperar a 2025
De acuerdo a un estudio privado, este año se observa una gran heterogeneidad productiva en cuanto a los sectores que traccionarán la economía. El rol del mercado externo
www.infobae.com
September 09, 2024
According to a private study, this year there is a great productive heterogeneity in terms of the sectors that will drive the economy. The role of the external market
GDP is expected to fall 3.2% in 2024, according to the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, ECLAC and BBVA. EFE/ Juan Ignacio Roncoroni
With a domestic market depressed by the fall in consumption resulting from the decline in purchasing power , the export sectors seem to be the only ones that will grow this year and drive the economy.
According to estimates for this year from the sectoral outlook report by the consultancy ABECEB, the sectors destined for the external market will end this year with green numbers : soybean grinding (+44.7%), agricultural production (+7.6%), agrochemical production (+8.5%), fertilizer sales (+5.9%), oil production (+8.0%), gas production (+5.6%) and exports of knowledge-based services (+12.5%).
However, the traffic light turns red for the rest of the productive conglomerate: the production of consumer electronics (-51.3%), household appliances (-31.7%), automotive (-24.1%), construction (-19.8%), steel production (-19.6%), sale of agricultural machinery (11.7%) and industrial production (-11.4%).
Consumer electronics production is expected to fall 51.3% this year (Illustrative Image Infobae)
This heterogeneous behavior is reflected in the different regions: in the interior, there are provinces that are developing hand in hand with these dynamic sectors and in the AMBA and other cities such as Córdoba and Rosario, the recovery will be slow and will take until mid-2025 .
"Although many sectors are unable to make up for their losses, the scenario is positive and the traffic light is turning green for next year," the consultancy firm says.
For example, in 2025 the production of consumer electronics will grow by 29.7%, that of household appliances by 22.9%, the sale of agricultural machinery by 14.4%, construction by 13.6%, steel by 13% and the automotive industry by 12.2%.
According to Abeceb, the decline in economic activity has stopped but the recovery is heterogeneous
Although this year GDP is expected to fall by 3.2% in 2024 , according to the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, ECLAC and BBVA, being the only country in the region along with Haiti that will see an economic contraction; Abeceb indicates that next year there will be an improvement of 4.6%.
This projection would be accompanied by a 4.5% recovery in consumption, after falling by an average of 4.9% this year. “This is due to the fact that salaries are beginning to regain purchasing power, the appearance of credit and greater price stability that allows for managing expenses,” the report states.
Estimated evolution of GDP and components of aggregate demand (Abeceb)
On the other hand, investment would reflect a fall of around 20% for this year, partially rebounding towards 2025 and in the second half of the year it would significantly accelerate its pace, encouraged by the Regime of Incentives for Large Investments (RIGI), by the change of cycle and fundamentally, if the elimination of the restriction is achieved.
“Exports are expected to continue to grow next year, albeit at a more moderate pace, with positive data on the energy side, but with different challenges on the industrial side,” Abeceb said.
“Another positive factor is that the government continues to accelerate the simplification agenda that improves the competitiveness of companies with standardization, facilitation and simplification to reduce administrative and financial costs and greater competition, and the reduction of the country tax that went from 17.5% to 7.5% for goods and logistics,” he added.
How is the activity going?
For now, the Coincident Index of Economic Activity in Argentina (ICA-ARG) of the Rosario (BCR) and Santa Fe (BCSF) Stock Exchanges, which analyses the country's economic cycle in real time, registered its fourth consecutive positive monthly variation in July with 0.4%. However, the recovery is showing signs of moderation.The report reveals that, despite the fact that the last four months (April-July) saw improvements in activity, the decline in the first quarter was not offset, resulting in a 1% decrease compared to December 2023. In addition, the year-on-year comparison remains in negative territory, with a 48% decrease in July compared to the same month last year.
In terms of specific sectors, agriculture, which had shown signs of recovery after the historic drought of the 2022/23 campaign, faced a 7.3% drop in July due to production problems in the late corn crop.
Industrial production, although still in recession, shows signs of moderating in its decline, with a monthly variation of -0.1% and an interannual rate of -12.9%.
Construction activity continued to recover with a monthly increase of 5.4% in July, despite being one of the sectors most affected by the recession.
Total imports of goods, which had contributed negatively in previous months, showed a recovery of 3.4% in July, although the year-on-year comparison remains negative with a fall of 26.2%.
"There is still a long way to go before we can more conclusively foresee the start of an expansion phase of the activity," they say.
