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Zero emission plan: the shortage of pesos is beginning to be felt in the exchange market - Infobae
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Plan emisión cero: la escasez de pesos se empieza a sentir en el mercado cambiario
Desapareció la brecha entre las cotizaciones del billete informal y financiero pero aumentó la oferta en el mercado oficial y empujó los precios hacia abajo. El efecto del blanqueo y el acceso de los privados al financiamiento internacional
www.infobae.com
September 06, 2024
The gap between the prices of informal and financial banknotes has disappeared, but the supply in the official market has increased and pushed prices down. The effect of money laundering and the access of private individuals to international financing
By Virginia Porcella
Bad measures, stock market, economy, savings, purchasing power, crisis (Illustrative Image Infobae)
It was not an increase in supply. Those who are in the foreign exchange business, or know it very well, assured yesterday that what has been lacking for some days is demand. This is the explanation they give for the fall of the free dollar, which accompanied the downward trend of the other exchange rates but with more force. Thus, in the informal market, the free dollar not only broke through $1,300 but closed at $1,265 and was located, for the first time in months, below the financial dollar in the variant in which exporters settle, the cash with settlement (CCL). That price also fell yesterday almost 2% as it closed at 1,276, the lowest value in several weeks.
Several factors are combining to ease any tension in the exchange market, but to specifically explain the decline in the blue currency, those who until recently attributed the trend to the money laundering effect, now warn that it is no longer profitable and what is in charge is the scarcity of pesos. In other words, the zero emission plan would seem to be starting to show the first effects.
“The blue dollar is no longer falling because of the money laundering, but because of the context. There is a search for pesos . We are in a context of a lack of pesos in the market, which is also reflected in the rate of caution, which began to rise slightly,” said trader Esteban Monte. “The reduction between the financial dollar and the blue dollar was expected, it allowed for incredible 'curls' with profits of 5% to 7%, at some point that was going to end,” he added. The truth is that it was this gap that encouraged the theory that to enter the money laundering, it was convenient to change the dollars to pesos in the informal market to then externalize that capital and eventually re-dollarize it through the investment options available at a more advantageous exchange rate. But that gap was quickly reduced and for several days now the movement had ceased to be attractive.
However, money laundering does have an indirect impact on the market. Although there are no official figures on the level of adhesion, the stock of private deposits in foreign currency in cash grows by about USD 100 million daily, so it is already close to USD 20 billion, the level of October 2019. Private estimates consider that due to money laundering there are already about 3,000 CERA accounts (Special Account for Asset Regularization) opened and that the official plan could capture up to 40 billion dollars. For now, the consulting firm 1816 highlighted that since August 12, dollar deposits grew by $887 million, which it attributed to money laundering. It is worth clarifying that, although a large contribution in terms of net reserves is not expected, the increase in deposits is a positive variable that contributes to the good climate. Even more so if part of the dollars enter through the cable dollar.
The financial sector also saw a marked improvement during the day, consolidating the downward trend of the last few days. In this case, the reason was an increase in the supply of dollars, which was felt both in the official market, where the Central Bank was able to obtain some USD 93 million, and in the financial market, since 20% of the total volume settled is traded through the CCL for the so-called "dollar blend."
“Good day for the market. Strong drop in the dollar, today (yesterday) the export flow returned because the oil workers’ strike ended. The MEP operated at $1260, $20 less than yesterday,” noted Nicolás Cappella in his daily summary of the day, adding that BCRA bought USD 93 million precisely because of the greater volume of exporters, after the end of the conflict with the oil workers’ union. The analyst pointed out an additional fact, which could begin to have a greater impact on the market from now on: access to the international financing market by “Tier 1” companies, with a country risk level much lower than that of the country itself. For example, Cappella highlighted, Pampa placed USD 400 million at 8.25% per year, “which shows that there are funds for Argentine placements,” he said. The placement announced yesterday also by YPF confirms this conclusion. The oil company, which is majority owned by the state, obtained USD 500 million over a 7-year term with an annual nominal rate of 8.75%. The fact: the offers received by the company tripled the amount issued.
