milo
Member
Yes, I have read that specialists agree that by the end of the year it will be $ 1500 but sincerely in Argentina you never know, everything is always a surprise.
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Any guesses where we think the Blue dollar exchange rate will head in 2024?
- Thread starter Swowbird
- Start date
Johnny
Well-known member
Very nice to see the blue dollar going above 1,300 to $1 USD today.
www.lanacion.com.ar
Dólar hoy, dólar blue hoy: a cuánto cotizó este martes 18 de junio
La divisa estadounidense que se negocia en el mercado paralelo cerró a $1305 para la venta; en tanto, el oficial se vendió a $943,66; qué pasó con el MEP y el CCL; el anuncio sobre el superávit primario y financiero
www.lanacion.com.ar
Blockchain
Well-known member
Every bit helps. It has been going up which makes it cheaper if you have dollars.Very nice to see the blue dollar going above 1,300 to $1 USD today.
Dólar hoy, dólar blue hoy: a cuánto cotizó este martes 18 de junio
La divisa estadounidense que se negocia en el mercado paralelo cerró a $1305 para la venta; en tanto, el oficial se vendió a $943,66; qué pasó con el MEP y el CCL; el anuncio sobre el superávit primario y financiero
Finance Prof
Well-known member
Yeah it's close to a 40% spread between the official and blue.Very nice to see the blue dollar going above 1,300 to $1 USD today.
Dólar hoy, dólar blue hoy: a cuánto cotizó este martes 18 de junio
La divisa estadounidense que se negocia en el mercado paralelo cerró a $1305 para la venta; en tanto, el oficial se vendió a $943,66; qué pasó con el MEP y el CCL; el anuncio sobre el superávit primario y financiero
BuySellBA
Administrator
Looks like
JP Morgan and everyone else was very wrong. They probably did not know the depths of the sterilization by the government in the peso. Peso is way way overvalued!
Just read this today. This wall street guru says the peso is very overvalued. If Trump imposes tariffs the peso will fall off a cliff.
El duro pronóstico de un gurú de Wall Street sobre el dólar en la Argentina
Para el economista Robin Brooks, si Donald Trump pone fuertes aranceles sobre China, habrá devaluaciones en todos los mercados emergentes; advirtió que el peso argentino está “muy sobrevaluado” y que “necesita caer”
www.lanacion.com.ar
Betsy Ross
Well-known member
To be fair it is difficult to know how much intervention by the government. I wonder how things will go after the cepo ends. That will be a true test of what the exchange rate is after that ends and the peso is trading free.
I think it's difficult for Argentinian's to fathom just how disconnected their financial system became from the global economy, when there's no faith in your government or currency and it's all about the US dollar. Everyone is hoarding USD while inflation eats away at the Peso, but suddenly there's a huge influx of dollars with the amnesty and it surprises everyone. $20 billion doesn't sound like a lot to Americans (Biden spent several times that amount bailing out the auto union's pension funds) but to a disconnected economy like Argentina it's like a tidal wave.
Vince
Well-known member
Yes you are right Craig. My sister from NYC is in the process of buying an apartment here in BA. I have lived here for over 15 years and she always visits me each year. She loves BA but never had any interest of buying here until Milei got elected. She sees prices going up so quickly and I explained that I know several friends that already pulled their amnesty funds out and buying real estate with it. I cited the $20 billion figure to her and she didn't think that is much. Americans are used to hearing in the news all the billions going to foreign governments. THEIR tax dollars! But they don't understand that is real money saved by locals.
Tidal wave is correct. Only around 10% or so of that $21 billion has been pulled out. A few friends bought apartments and a few more are buying in pozos. We will see things start to improve in 2025. The numbers will shift the other way hopefully.
Johnny
Well-known member
You nailed it @CraigM. I work for a bank so I can tell you how screwed up the banking system still is in Argentina. $20 Billion is a huge amount of money when it comes to people pulling it out of their mattress and safe deposit boxes or bringing it from accounts outside of Argentina. And it is only about 5% to 10% of what US government best case estimates are of cash still held by locals.
The banking system is chaotic in Argentina but hopefully it goes back to normal. I am furnishing my apartment now and it is nuts that I can't just wire funds down directly. I have to go through a cueva and my money is going to a third party that gets the cash in Argentina. I had to pay a few % points to get cash there. When I seldom wire funds and when making the wire it got flagged. My manager asked for the details of the recipient who was just some third party. 🤣 They asked what the purpose of the funds were so I was just honest and said furniture and decorations for a property purchased.
Everything went ok but it is one example of how messed up and difficult their banking system is with currency restrictions in place.
Good lord what a mess. Hopefully gets ironed out by the time GyD's next project gets completed and we don't have to go through all that!
Vince
Well-known member
🤣 Yeah my sister had to send 30% down for her down payment and it was all in cash. This was last month and with the rush of amnesty cash people were trying to send to Argentina she had to pay 5.5% to get the cash to Argentina as the seller insisted on cash. She is going through the same thing as you Johnny. She is complaining about that. She asked my wife's family to use some of their cash but they didn't want to let her use it free as when they need it then they will have to pay to bring it here. Gotta love Argentina!
earlyretirement
Moderator
Very true. I've been doing business here since 2002 and people don't really understand how locals love to hoard cash. I've never seen anything like this anywhere else in the world. These blanqueo's always bring in several billions and much of it ends up going into the real estate sector. I don't believe this will be any different. I'm forecasting by end of 2026 probably 40% of this will make it's way into the real estate market pushing up prices.
It is NEVER fun to pay a % to bring cash into Argentina but a necessary evil. Even when the CEPO ends you will still have cuevas moving money in and out and they never do it free. Even with no CEPO, a large % of locals don't really trust the banking system too much. I'm also furnishing some of my own properties and having to bring in large amounts of cash and always annoying paying a fee to do it. It's been especially high with the amnesty in place.
Well at least I helped them structure a foreign bank account outside of Argentina. Most developers don't have this system in place so people are having to pay extra on the payments. For payments to GyD for apartments there is 0% in wire transfer fees. I know that seems like a nothing special but that is really special as it pertains to Argentina. Many developers don't have that in place and leave it to you to get cash here and it costs money to do that.
At least it sounds like you didn't have to deal with cash. When I bought my place I had to wire it to Argentina and at closing I sat around a table with the seller counting out $325,000 dollars one bill at a time! I paid about 3% to wire that here.
Betsy Ross
Well-known member
Same experience for me. It was the first time in my life I actually saw so much cash. It was like a movie. We never deal with cash in the US anymore. I was laughing. I wish I took a photo but I was so surprised to see it all. There was a money counter that they used but the seller insisted on counting each and every bill. In fact, a few of the bills had a little writing on them. Just a pen mark and the seller refused i and demanded different bills!
import export
Well-known member
It isn't just cash for buying real estate but I have dealt with a few different companies and they all deal with some cash. Argentina is a tricky country because the laws and banking are so bad. Most companies all have some cash part of their business. Many companies still pay employees under the table. This is going away but probably will always be like that.
No doubt Mike, saving 4-5% on the purchase price is a biggie and much appreciated
Everyone I know in Argentina deal with cash. I still have many acquaintances and friends that never use any credit or debit cards. They pay everything cash still. Estimated that there is about $277 to $350 Billion dollars hidden! This is a huge amount of GDP. The $20 billion that came back is nothing. Probably only about 8% of total undeclared.
This was most frustrating part for me of buying here. I bought many years ago before anyone allowed payment outside of Argentina. I paid a lot of money for nothing but getting cash here. Same experience counting out cash. Same experience as you @Betsy Ross with seller demanding replacement bills! She was rejecting older bills, marked bills even bills that were ok but had a slight crease.
I asked my friend in real estate and he told me still sellers are insisting on cash. Even people that have accounts outside Argentina are insisting on cash. I asked about crypto and he said no one is doing that and he works for a big company. @earlyretirement are you seeing any crypto currency transactions?
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