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Politics Argentinians no longer want to leave the country
- Thread starter ranchero
- Start date
greiger
Member
It’s really encouraging to see how things have changed with Milei’s government. People are no longer thinking about leaving the country like they did before, which shows that, as you said, Milei is doing things right. This gives hope that things are improving, and finally, there’s a sense of optimism about the future. I can only imagine Milei’s surprised reaction when he saw this graph, what a satisfaction!
earlyretirement
Moderator
This is definitely a great trend as many previously wanted to leave. Many have already left but I have a few friends that tell me they would move back if things continue to improve.
Heard the same thing from a few families I met on the flight, they had moved to Miami in 2022 (one of them had 4 young kids in school) but said they would consider going back now.
Betsy Ross
Well-known member
Yes over the past 5 years I had many friends leave. Some in Spain and many Argentines are in Miami. I am hearing from some that I never thought would move back to Argentina but I just heard from one friend that moved away during Covid and she just told me she took advantage of the tax amnesty and buying an apartment. Her son also did the same thing moving in money free and just put a deposit on a pozo property. It is nice to hear stories like this.
Vince
Well-known member
Many are pondering possibly coming back to Argentina. Argentina is known for a poor economy but conditions in many parts of the world have experienced inflation. EU has a lot of problems with immigration. A friend just got mugged in Barcelona and they hit him over the head with a hammer even though he gave his wallet. He said it is getting worse there. He commented that he didn't have to deal with that kind of violence in BA.
I am moving out of Argentina during Thanksgiving to go take care of my parents in NYC but I will be back.
@Betsy Ross this blanqueo was very popular. Last time not many of my local friends took advantage of it but this time many people I know moved in the maximum $100k including their spouses and even their children. My neighbor in my building just put a deposit on a new construction.
James Bond
Well-known member
I moved to Malaga earlier this year and don't regret it. I do miss Buenos Aires as it is a great city. Nothing quite like it. But cost of living is stable in Spain. We will fly back for Christmas to BA. Prices look like they are still going up and the dollar is weak making it more expensive. Lots of Argentines here in Spain watching to see what happens with the economy in 2025.
My girlfriend's family also took advantage of the amnesty. I heard they are up to $20 billion and counting. Does anyone know how much has already been pulled out of the banks? I can't imagine too many people will keep money in long term. This same thing happened after Macri and things blew up.
My girlfriend's family also took advantage of the amnesty. I heard they are up to $20 billion and counting. Does anyone know how much has already been pulled out of the banks? I can't imagine too many people will keep money in long term. This same thing happened after Macri and things blew up.
overstayed
Member
There must be many that took advantage of the amnesty. I don't know too many people in Argentina and the 4 friends that I met all had their family bring money back in. That is crazy to me that the government will let people evade on their taxes. How many people brought in money so far?
My friends also put down deposits on new apartments that are being built now. Is the market going up with all of this buying? I haven't followed the market there.
earlyretirement
Moderator
Yes, a tax amnesty was something that I predicted even before President Milei took office. I knew that they would need this influx of capital. The same thing happened with President Macri. It's been very successful so far. As of last week there was already $20 Billion deposited into local banks. Already $4 billion has been withdrawn and most of that will most likely go into the real estate market. That is already happening.
As of last week there was 104,390 Argentines that took advantage of the amnesty. Around $3 Billion in penalties has been paid. People can bring in the first $100,000 USD free with 0% penalties but people are bringing in more than that and paying. The tax free 0% was supposed to end September 30 and they extended it to October 31 and it got extended again to November 8. I wouldn't be surprised to see it extended again. People still have until the end of the year to bring in but pay a penalty.
@overstayed, as you noticed and as others mentioned, many are going to end up buying real estate with these funds. People don't understand how it works here in Argentina but you can't easily buy when you don't have justified income. Many people declare $0 on their taxes and it's not easy to purchase properties with no income. That's why these amnesties are always great for the real estate market. So many people bring in funds and typically the bulk of it will go into the real estate market.
I called the bottom in July 2023 when I estimated that prices were at rock bottom. The numbers are showing that was correct and now the number of closings is going up. Both # of transactions as well as property prices are all increasing. Property prices fell for 5 years in a row so there is a lot of upside still left. We should see much of these billions that came into the system finding its way into the real estate market and most of that in Buenos Aires in 2025.
I wouldn't be surprised if we see extensions to the amnesty. Personally, I think President Milei should have allowed an unlimited amount of money to come in with the amnesty to start fresh.
You can see some of the numbers from above here:
El Banco Central comenzó la semana comprando dólares y las reservas volvieron a superar los USD 30.000 millones
La entidad monetaria compró hoy USD 30 millones y anota un saldo a favor de USD 82 millones por su intervención en el comienzo de noviembre. Los activos brutos del Central alcanzaron su nivel más alto desde abril
www.infobae.com
overstayed
Member
Thanks so much for the info! Wow that is a lot of people! Over 100k is a lot of people. That is a lot of money! My Argentinean friends tell me that is probably only about 1/10 the cash that is out there from locals. Crazy to me to imagine. One friend told me probably $400 billion is floating out there.Yes, a tax amnesty was something that I predicted even before President Milei took office. I knew that they would need this influx of capital. The same thing happened with President Macri. It's been very successful so far. As of last week there was already $20 Billion deposited into local banks. Already $4 billion has been withdrawn and most of that will most likely go into the real estate market. That is already happening.
As of last week there was 104,390 Argentines that took advantage of the amnesty. Around $3 Billion in penalties has been paid. People can bring in the first $100,000 USD free with 0% penalties but people are bringing in more than that and paying. The tax free 0% was supposed to end September 30 and they extended it to October 31 and it got extended again to November 8. I wouldn't be surprised to see it extended again. People still have until the end of the year to bring in but pay a penalty.
@overstayed, as you noticed and as others mentioned, many are going to end up buying real estate with these funds. People don't understand how it works here in Argentina but you can't easily buy when you don't have justified income. Many people declare $0 on their taxes and it's not easy to purchase properties with no income. That's why these amnesties are always great for the real estate market. So many people bring in funds and typically the bulk of it will go into the real estate market.
I called the bottom in July 2023 when I estimated that prices were at rock bottom. The numbers are showing that was correct and now the number of closings is going up. Both # of transactions as well as property prices are all increasing. Property prices fell for 5 years in a row so there is a lot of upside still left. We should see much of these billions that came into the system finding its way into the real estate market and most of that in Buenos Aires in 2025.
I wouldn't be surprised if we see extensions to the amnesty. Personally, I think President Milei should have allowed an unlimited amount of money to come in with the amnesty to start fresh.
You can see some of the numbers from above here:
El Banco Central comenzó la semana comprando dólares y las reservas volvieron a superar los USD 30.000 millones
La entidad monetaria compró hoy USD 30 millones y anota un saldo a favor de USD 82 millones por su intervención en el comienzo de noviembre. Los activos brutos del Central alcanzaron su nivel más alto desde abril
I didn't know this is how it works with buying properties. That makes sense now why so many are buying. So basically even if they had the cash before to buy they couldn't buy? Couldn't they say a relative was giving them money or something? Now I understand why my 4 friends are buying apartments now.
I guess if all these people that laundered their money buy real estate won't it cause the prices to skyrocket?
Even though the government isn't charging anything my friends told me they had to pay 5% to wire their funds into a Cueva to get the cash here! That is crazy. They told me they usually only pay about 2% to 3% maximum to get cash here but it's 5% now since all the locals all need cash here. I don't understand why they can't just wire the funds directly to the bank?
Johnny
Well-known member
I am still amazed this is all playing out exactly like you told me last year @earlyretirement. Thank you. I can't wait until my place is done next month.Yes, a tax amnesty was something that I predicted even before President Milei took office. I knew that they would need this influx of capital. The same thing happened with President Macri. It's been very successful so far. As of last week there was already $20 Billion deposited into local banks. Already $4 billion has been withdrawn and most of that will most likely go into the real estate market. That is already happening.
As of last week there was 104,390 Argentines that took advantage of the amnesty. Around $3 Billion in penalties has been paid. People can bring in the first $100,000 USD free with 0% penalties but people are bringing in more than that and paying. The tax free 0% was supposed to end September 30 and they extended it to October 31 and it got extended again to November 8. I wouldn't be surprised to see it extended again. People still have until the end of the year to bring in but pay a penalty.
@overstayed, as you noticed and as others mentioned, many are going to end up buying real estate with these funds. People don't understand how it works here in Argentina but you can't easily buy when you don't have justified income. Many people declare $0 on their taxes and it's not easy to purchase properties with no income. That's why these amnesties are always great for the real estate market. So many people bring in funds and typically the bulk of it will go into the real estate market.
I called the bottom in July 2023 when I estimated that prices were at rock bottom. The numbers are showing that was correct and now the number of closings is going up. Both # of transactions as well as property prices are all increasing. Property prices fell for 5 years in a row so there is a lot of upside still left. We should see much of these billions that came into the system finding its way into the real estate market and most of that in Buenos Aires in 2025.
I wouldn't be surprised if we see extensions to the amnesty. Personally, I think President Milei should have allowed an unlimited amount of money to come in with the amnesty to start fresh.
You can see some of the numbers from above here:
El Banco Central comenzó la semana comprando dólares y las reservas volvieron a superar los USD 30.000 millones
La entidad monetaria compró hoy USD 30 millones y anota un saldo a favor de USD 82 millones por su intervención en el comienzo de noviembre. Los activos brutos del Central alcanzaron su nivel más alto desde abril
@overstayed it is all kind of crazy. I just bought an apartment last year. I hired @BuySellBA and they literally told me everything that is happening would happen last year. I am amazed. I bought a new construction last year and it is almost done. It should be done by the end of next month. I am amazed. I got offers already from the developer to repurchase it from me for 25% more than I paid just last year. Needless to say I am not selling.
I just put an offer today on another new construction by the same developer. It will take 3 years to build but I wanted to buy a bigger unit now that I got my feet wet in Buenos Aires.
I know what your friends are going through on the expensive 5%. I am furnishing my place now and it was very expensive to wire the cash in. I'm told because of all the locals sending in cash there is a big demand there from the money exchange firms. I also paid 5% to get my cash there for my furniture. I couldn't wire directly. There are a lot of currency controls by the government so it is literally impossible for me to get cash there. Luckily I didn't have to pay anything to wire cash for the purchase. I wired outside of Argentina to the developer.
Betsy Ross
Well-known member
The last peak in the real estate market in BA is after the last amnesty. That is probably what caused it to go so high. I didn't think about that too much before but that makes sense why it went so high. I wasn't looking at prices back then but I remember prices were very high.
Wow 5% is high but I remember once paying that high during another amnesty when demand was very high. I also remember when a friend sold her apartment and got paid in cash and had to move it back to the USA and she actually got paid 2.5% to move it because they needed the cash here.
Even if a local has a US dollar account they probably won't want to declare it. Once you wire into your bank the bank will have a record of it. Many locals have passports from the EU and have accounts there. They still don't want Argentina to know about these accounts. So they will use a Cueva to get the cash. Nobody trusts the Argentine government.
Digital Nomad
Well-known member
@Johnny on these new construction pozo developments did you make payments on the one you purchased last year? What about this new property you put an offer on today? I'm looking at properties and it's appealing to make a down payment and make payments over 3 years. Although the properties are in dollars all the developers want to do an inflation adjustment. That is not desirable to me as I'm not sure what it will end up costing after 3 years. Did you do that in either of your units? If so, what was the difference you ended up paying? Thanks.
Uncle Wong
Well-known member
I don't know the answer but I am also looking at off plan apartments. I saw a few when I was in BA last year and I wish I pulled the trigger because prices were much lower. I'm kicking myself now.
It sounds like there is an inflation adjustment. I read on X this guy that bought a pozo and he said his payments are much higher now.
Johnny
Well-known member
No I didn't want to buy with the installments. Talk to @BuySellBA. I hired @earlyretirement to handle all of this. But he will explain it all to you. He actually negotiated something really really good for me. The situation last year was much different and in July there wasn't demand like there is now. Remember this was before Milei started and the economy was in the dump. @earlyretirement actually negotiated for me to pay all the cash up front. I was a bit leery about this since there was still 1.5 years left to finish. But he got the developer to pay me $500 USD per month "rent" until the building was done. So I paid the entire thing up front. I tried to do the same thing on this new property they are building in Palermo Hollywood but now developers don't need the cash as so many people are jumping to buy now so they don't need to do that.
But it was a sweet deal for me because I have been making $500 bucks a month since last summer. Every month, they have paid me on time in cash. Great tax free income!
On this new building that I put an offer on today it is the same developer from my first building. They don't like to lock in the price in dollars without any inflation adjustment so I am paying 50% in a few weeks and then will pay the other 50% over the next 24 months. I will have paid off the property before the building is done but I have my price locked in. On new developments the price keeps going up each month. I bought some properties in Mexico too and it is always discounted buying at pozo. The key is to buy with big developers that have a good track record and put up a lot of buildings over decades. I had lunch with the developers and spent a lot of time in their office.
Yes they price in USD but typically they will convert into pesos at the exchange rate on the day you make the offer and update with the inflation index. I didn't want to get stuck with paying more than the agreed upon price in dollars.
Attachments
Blockchain
Well-known member
Jesus. I didn't realize this many people and this much money came in from the amnesty!Yes, a tax amnesty was something that I predicted even before President Milei took office. I knew that they would need this influx of capital. The same thing happened with President Macri. It's been very successful so far. As of last week there was already $20 Billion deposited into local banks. Already $4 billion has been withdrawn and most of that will most likely go into the real estate market. That is already happening.
As of last week there was 104,390 Argentines that took advantage of the amnesty. Around $3 Billion in penalties has been paid. People can bring in the first $100,000 USD free with 0% penalties but people are bringing in more than that and paying. The tax free 0% was supposed to end September 30 and they extended it to October 31 and it got extended again to November 8. I wouldn't be surprised to see it extended again. People still have until the end of the year to bring in but pay a penalty.
@overstayed, as you noticed and as others mentioned, many are going to end up buying real estate with these funds. People don't understand how it works here in Argentina but you can't easily buy when you don't have justified income. Many people declare $0 on their taxes and it's not easy to purchase properties with no income. That's why these amnesties are always great for the real estate market. So many people bring in funds and typically the bulk of it will go into the real estate market.
I called the bottom in July 2023 when I estimated that prices were at rock bottom. The numbers are showing that was correct and now the number of closings is going up. Both # of transactions as well as property prices are all increasing. Property prices fell for 5 years in a row so there is a lot of upside still left. We should see much of these billions that came into the system finding its way into the real estate market and most of that in Buenos Aires in 2025.
I wouldn't be surprised if we see extensions to the amnesty. Personally, I think President Milei should have allowed an unlimited amount of money to come in with the amnesty to start fresh.
You can see some of the numbers from above here:
El Banco Central comenzó la semana comprando dólares y las reservas volvieron a superar los USD 30.000 millones
La entidad monetaria compró hoy USD 30 millones y anota un saldo a favor de USD 82 millones por su intervención en el comienzo de noviembre. Los activos brutos del Central alcanzaron su nivel más alto desde abril
Vince
Well-known member
That is a sweet deal if you've been making $500 dollars per month while they build it! Never heard of something like that here. Many locals have no choice but to buy in installment payments because they don't have all the money to pay all at once. That is why the payments over 2-3 years is desirable to many. Also the exchange rate this year has not been favorable but before when the spread was so large between the blue dollar it has actually worked out if you have dollars. But I wouldn't want to buy like this now.
Many getting UVA mortgages also don't know the risks of them.
Although the economic situation in Argentina is tough, the country has great resilience, and its people are incredibly creative and hardworking. Despite the challenges, Argentina remains a place full of opportunities, especially in sectors like technology, agriculture, and tourism. Many Argentinians are finding ways to reinvent themselves, create new businesses, and contribute to the country's growth. Things can improve, and there are many reasons to be optimistic about the future. The fact that Argentinians are feeling more secure about the economy and no longer want to leave the country is excellent.
eleconomista.com.ar
Los argentinos ya no se quieren ir del país
Un trabajo reciente de la consultora Casa 3 muestra que el 68% de la población no piensa en mudarse a otro país y el 74% recomienda a sus hijos "que estudie y trabaje en Argentina".
eleconomista.com.ar
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