Economy Blue Dollar: Peso has devalued 22% over the last 30 days

[TechNow]

Today the dollar hit $6.15 in the blue market and as high as $7.50 in the interior of the country... amazing! In 30 days the price has gone from 5.03 to 6.15, moving more than an entire peso. We have broken the psychological barrier of $6 pesos. That's a devaluation of 22% in just 30 days.

What are you expats doing? Are you buying, selling? It is getting really tempting to sell dollars, but it seems like if we keep holding on we might get an even better rate next month if things continue like this. There is now a 37% spread between the blue dollar and the official dollar?!?!?!

I don't know about you all, but I think this may have gone too far. Is the peso really worth so little? I think the peso has to be worth more than $6.15 per dollar. If they let the peso float freely I doubt it would be this low.

 

[SlechCarson]

It's really crazy. I got $5.10 last Monday and that was a good deal!

Looks like AFIP shut down two illegal exchange houses in Palermo this week. They were giving $6 to U$S 1.

This is a result of further AFIP crackdowns and sending dollar sniffing dogs to Florida street this week. It's panic based and the difference with the official rate is simply not sustainable.

 

[TrevorOD]

Yep somethings gotta give. We can basically see the deval just around the corner.

 

[StarLucias]

I return on Monday, and will be selling just enough dollars to pay my living expenses for the next week or so (then when I run out of cash, rinse and repeat). Since the rate will either be (at best) more favorable or (at worst) the same in the following weeks, putting it off definitely seems like the way to go.

 

[earlyretirement]

Good question. I had several bills to pay and on-going taxes so I exchanged last week and thought I got a good deal at 5.50 only to see it go over 6 today! I exchanged $10,000 US. I THOUGHT I was getting a good deal.

Things typically fall further then you think they will. I guess the old adage is true. "Never try to catch a falling knife". The Argentine peso is definitely a "falling knife".

Also, never underestimate this administration's stupidity to really screw things up...

 

[GeremiasGor]

Today I exchanged some dollars and got exactly 6 pesos to the dollar. The last time was at the rate of 4.86 pesos. The Argentinian Government are clueless as to how to deal with the dollar. Last November you will recall that the government placed severe restrictions (mostly involving tramite) on all the banks preventing local people from buying dollars. They subsequently eased the restrictions slightly. The difference now between the blue dollar and the official rate is quite frankly meaningless. It is the old economic scenario of supply and demand. The more the government try to keep the peso as strong as possible against the dollar, the stronger the dollar will become.
I have a number of Argentinian friends, all of whom are intelligent and well-educated, and who without exception consider that Cristina Kirchner and her Congress do not know how to run the country. Her Falklands stunt backfired spectacularly and her nationalisation of key companies has made enemies in Europe and made her the laughing stock of the world. These are typical examples of trying to cover up problems closer to home. Unfortunately she has an unhealthy majority in government which is unlikely to change with all the 'yes men' in Congress.

 

[Paravichini]

Does anybody know what the limit of dollars is to travel to Argentina by plane? Still 10'000 US or was that restricted as well?

 

[earlyretirement]

Does anybody know what the limit of dollars is to travel to Argentina by plane? Still 10'000 US or was that restricted as well?

Yes, you can still bring in up to $10,000 US for each person. But plenty of people are bringing in more and just not declaring it. Surprisingly $10,000 US doesn't take up much space with $100 bills.

 

[Paravichini]

Im wondering then why people dont travel to other countries to sell the peso for an official rate and sell sell the dollars for the blue rate? If you do this with 10'000 USD that gives you a 1'000 USD each trip. What Im not sure is how easy it is to sell the peso abroad.

or is there a limit for the pesos you take out of the country...

 

[earlyretirement]

Im wondering then why people dont travel to other countries to sell the peso for an official rate and sell sell the dollars for the blue rate? If you do this with 10'000 USD that gives you a 1'000 USD each trip. What Im not sure is how easy it is to sell the peso abroad.

or is there a limit for the pesos you take out of the country...

Because there is NO market for the Argentine Peso outside of Argentina. No one would even think about accepting or buying pesos. It's a worthless currency outside of Argentina. More so now more than ever.

 

[Paravichini]

I remember that I sold Pesos in Europe in a bank for a good rate in January. Maybe they wouldn't change if you come with a 60'000 Pesos

 

[SailorCaps]

I've run out of dollars and I have a stinking suspicion that when I return with some in July, I'm not going to be able to sell them, or else it will be dangerous to do so.

To the guy who sold U$D10,000 -- do you call up and say, "I've got 10,000 dollars" and they quietly bring you the pesos and pick up your dollars? Maybe you don't but I imagine some do, and I also imagine eventually these guys will come with a bag of guns instead of a bag of pesos.

The way I've sold on the black market is through a local in-law that calls in the amount she wants to exchange and they go to her office directly. Every time I ask her to change money for me I feel guilty, like I'm putting her in a precarious (and dangerous) position, but she never seems to be worried...

I'm tired of worrying all the time and being scared, I don't know how the Argentines live like this! (this is half in jest, but oh so true!)

 

[earlyretirement]

I've run out of dollars and I have a stinking suspicion that when I return with some in July, I'm not going to be able to sell them, or else it will be dangerous to do so.

To the guy who sold U$D10,000 -- do you call up and say, "I've got 10,000 dollars" and they quietly bring you the pesos and pick up your dollars? Maybe you don't but I imagine some do, and I also imagine eventually these guys will come with a bag of guns instead of a bag of pesos.

The way I've sold on the black market is through a local in-law that calls in the amount she wants to exchange and they go to her office directly. Every time I ask her to change money for me I feel guilty, like I'm putting her in a precarious (and dangerous) position, but she never seems to be worried...

I'm tired of worrying all the time and being scared, I don't know how the Argentines live like this! (this is half in jest, but oh so true!)

I work with established firms that I've been working with for years. Unfortunately, they AREN'T taking on new clients so I can't give them out as a referral source. I've received a few PM's but I'm afraid I can't help. Most of the major blue market firms stopped taking on new clients a while back unless maybe they were referred by established clients and those clients vouched for them (i.e. VERY close friends or family). I'm not about to vouch for anyone I don't know.

The way it works is you either go to their office and pick up the pesos and exchange dollars or I work with a few if you exchange enough dollars like $10,000 US they just deliver it to your place. The places I work with I don't have any fear/risk at all as I've worked with them for so long. And I typically don't have to hand over any actual cash as I already have an account with them and they are holding on to my dollars already. So it works almost like a savings account where I store money except of course they don't pay interest. But then again neither does my HSBC account and I MUCH rather trust private money exchange firms vs. Argentine banks.

 

[NigjeFs]

If you need to exchange dollars here and do not have a reputable place I can refer you to one. What earlyretirement says is true and most places only work with people they know. Send me a PM and I will hook you up.