Politics Could Milei win in the first round?

[Redpossum]

¿Puede Javier Milei ganar las elecciones en primera vuelta? El veredicto de los encuestadores​

La posibilidad de que Javier Milei gane en primera vuelta, sin ballotage, no fue descartada por los encuestadores consultados por <b>Página/12</b>, aunque la mayoría lo ve muy improbable.

www-pagina12-com-ar.translate.goog

The usual Google Translate deal, banner is in Castellano and story will initially appear in that tongue, but wait a few seconds and it will change to English.

Pagina12 talks to the various pollsters


https://www-pagina12-com-ar.transla..._sl=es&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

 

[Redpossum]

And there's more on the same subject in this story -

Qué dicen las encuestas: Sergio Massa y Javier Milei, los mejor posicionados para entrar al ballottage | Fotografía de la carrera electoral, a siete semanas de las generales​

Las encuestas arrojan que Patricia Bullrich no logra retener los votos que obtuvo Horacio Rodríguez Larreta en las PASO. El crecimiento del líder de La Libertad Avanza y las chances del ministro de Economía. Muchos interrogantes abiertos.

www-pagina12-com-ar.translate.goog
The usual Google Translate deal, banner is in Castellano and story will initially appear in that tongue, but wait a few seconds and it will change to English.

https://www-pagina12-com-ar.transla..._sl=es&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

 

[Don Jorge]

I doubt it.

He can win in the first round only if Patricia Bullrich and Rodríguez Larreta support him.

According to the preliminary data Milei had received 30.04%, but after the final vote count Milei had received only 29.86 % of the votes against JxC 28.27% (Bullrich + Rodríguez), and Massa + Grabois 27.28%.

IMO Milei is going to win the run-off.

 

[Rich One]

Many Argentino Acquaintances wish Milei would win on the first round by KO.

 

[Redpossum]

Many Argentino Acquaintances wish Milei would win on the first round by KO.

I rode with a taxi driver on Friday who was talking mad trash about Milei, and said he was going to vote for Massa, because he was the least bad of a poor lot. His major beef with Milei was actually a lack of experience. He said that Milei has never had a real job, has no track record, has no qualifications, and this taxista simply wasn't willing to hand the reins of government to "un novato" (amateur or beginner).

He wasn't enthusiastic about Massa, but he was very positive about voting for Massa.

This was a rarity; the vast majority of taxistas I have spoken with have been firmly anti-K, as are most small business people with whom I have spoken.

 

[Quilombo1]

I'm a betting man, and I put the odds of anyone winning 1st round at under 1%.

I also think the only instance in which Milei has any chance of losing is a ballotage between him and Bullrich. If she managed to get even a small percentage of the Peronist vote I think she could pull it off as most Peronists will simply stay home or vote en blanco, but we also don't know what Milei's ceiling is yet, so who knows.

 

[Alfred22]

I'm a betting man, and I put the odds of anyone winning 1st round at under 1%.

I also think the only instance in which Milei has any chance of losing is a ballotage between him and Bullrich. If she managed to get even a small percentage of the Peronist vote I think she could pull it off as most Peronists will simply stay home or vote en blanco, but we also don't know what Milei's ceiling is yet, so who knows.

I agree here...but I'll wager a guess just for fun and conversation:

1st round:
PB high teens
SM high 30s
JM low 40s
Decent amount in blanco or impugnado

2nd round
SM higher 30s/very low 40s
JM high 50s/low 60s
Decent amount in blanco or impugnado

 

[Redpossum]

I rode with a taxi driver on Friday who was talking mad trash about Milei, and said he was going to vote for Massa, because he was the least bad of a poor lot. His major beef with Milei was actually a lack of experience. He said that Milei has never had a real job, has no track record, has no qualifications, and this taxista simply wasn't willing to hand the reins of government to "un novato" (amateur or beginner).

He wasn't enthusiastic about Massa, but he was very positive about voting for Massa.

This was a rarity; the vast majority of taxistas I have spoken with have been firmly anti-K, as are most small business people with whom I have spoken.

I agree here...but I'll wager a guess just for fun and conversation:

1st round:
PB high teens
SM high 30s
JM low 40s
Decent amount in blanco or impugnado

2nd round
SM higher 30s/very low 40s
JM high 50s/low 60s
Decent amount in blanco or impugnado

Ah, you never know. Perhaps Myriam Bregman will finish the 1st round ahead of Bullrich. It would be amusing if people voted for a Communist who has zero chance of winning, instead of en blanco or such. If nothing else, it would infuriate dear Patricia beyond words, and that has some amusement value, (especially if she had a public meltdown).

You know Larreta would get a laugh out of seeing her humiliated.

 

[FrankPintor]

Ah, you never know. Perhaps Myriam Bregman will finish the 1st round ahead of Bullrich. It would be amusing if people voted for a Communist who has zero chance of winning, instead of en blanco or such. If nothing else, it would infuriate dear Patricia beyond words, and that has some amusement value, (especially if she had a public meltdown).

You know Larreta would get a laugh out of seeing her humiliated.

Seeing Larrata washed up is already amusement enough though, imagine going from lunches with Bill and designing your own vaccination and digital nomad campaigns to being a mere ex-mayor of a medium-sized city.

(I wouldn't be so pissed at him if my car hadn't been towed a few times before his little earner was finally stopped).

 

[Redpossum]

Seeing Larrata washed up is already amusement enough though, imagine going from lunches with Bill and designing your own vaccination and digital nomad campaigns to being a mere ex-mayor of a medium-sized city.

(I wouldn't be so pissed at him if my car hadn't been towed a few times before his little earner was finally stopped).

My annoyance with Larreta is the thing he's done/doing to the streets here in Retiro. They've had Paraguay east of 9 de Julio torn up for 6 months now. The one block they finally finished, between Esmeralda and Maipú, now has some green areas, and maybe 5 or 6 parking places, but it's also now only one lane wide, whereas before it was two lanes.

But the whole thing has been a terrible boondoggle. At one point early on, they tore it up, then resurfaced it, and then tore it up again. The block between Suipacha and Esmeralda, (just west of the one I mentioned above), is still closed to through traffic. At one point, it was even closed to pedestrians for a few days. The whole business just reeks of graft and corruption, and reminds me of Macri's time as Jefe de Gobierno, when he threw all those construction jobs to his buddy Nicky Caputo's companies.

 

[FrankPintor]

My annoyance with Larreta is the thing he's done/doing to the streets here in Retiro. They've had Paraguay east of 9 de Julio torn up for 6 months now. The one block they finally finished, between Esmeralda and Maipú, now has some green areas, and maybe 5 or 6 parking places, but it's also now only one lane wide, whereas before it was two lanes.

But the whole thing has been a terrible boondoggle. At one point early on, they tore it up, then resurfaced it, and then tore it up again. The block between Suipacha and Esmeralda, (just west of the one I mentioned above), is still closed to through traffic. At one point, it was even closed to pedestrians for a few days. The whole business just reeks of graft and corruption, and reminds me of Macri's time as Jefe de Gobierno, when he threw all those construction jobs to his buddy Nicky Caputo's companies.

The stink of corruption has followed Larrata and his Verruca Salt sidekick around for decades now. Their expenditures are so far beyond their means there's no possible legal explanation. I wonder if Dr. Favaloro at least raised a smile from beyond the grave the night Larrata's ambitions died?

 

[wrangler]

I am not certain Milei will pull this off. My gut tells me he can't. He barely edged out a win in 'las paso' and only 63% voted. I am more inclined to think that the "no shows" will NOT vote for him. I am thinking Massa pulls this thing out in October.

 

[RG2]

I am not certain Milei will pull this off. My gut tells me he can't. He barely edged out a win in 'las paso' and only 63% voted. I am more inclined to think that the "no shows" will NOT vote for him. I am thinking Massa pulls this thing out in October.

Bold prediction, not one many are making

 

[earlyretirement]

I doubt it.

He can win in the first round only if Patricia Bullrich and Rodríguez Larreta support him.

According to the preliminary data Milei had received 30.04%, but after the final vote count Milei had received only 29.86 % of the votes against JxC 28.27% (Bullrich + Rodríguez), and Massa + Grabois 27.28%.

IMO Milei is going to win the run-off.

I doubt it.

He can win in the first round only if Patricia Bullrich and Rodríguez Larreta support him.

According to the preliminary data Milei had received 30.04%, but after the final vote count Milei had received only 29.86 % of the votes against JxC 28.27% (Bullrich + Rodríguez), and Massa + Grabois 27.28%.

IMO Milei is going to win the run-off.

But you are just taking an attitude that NONE of those people would change their minds. Remember before the PASO (mid-term elections) many didn't think Milei actually had a shot. So things are different now. Many people now realize he isn't a joke. So you have to account for a certain/significant % that will change and vote for him.

Meanwhile very few if any that voted for him will change against him. It's the opposite. So you have to account for that.

Milei is gaining traction now.

 

[earlyretirement]

I rode with a taxi driver on Friday who was talking mad trash about Milei, and said he was going to vote for Massa, because he was the least bad of a poor lot. His major beef with Milei was actually a lack of experience. He said that Milei has never had a real job, has no track record, has no qualifications, and this taxista simply wasn't willing to hand the reins of government to "un novato" (amateur or beginner).

He wasn't enthusiastic about Massa, but he was very positive about voting for Massa.

This was a rarity; the vast majority of taxistas I have spoken with have been firmly anti-K, as are most small business people with whom I have spoken.

This taxi driver was a moron. It's morons like him that has kept Argentina going backwards since the good ole days when Argentina was one of the wealthiest countries in the world.

 

[earlyretirement]

My annoyance with Larreta is the thing he's done/doing to the streets here in Retiro. They've had Paraguay east of 9 de Julio torn up for 6 months now. The one block they finally finished, between Esmeralda and Maipú, now has some green areas, and maybe 5 or 6 parking places, but it's also now only one lane wide, whereas before it was two lanes.

But the whole thing has been a terrible boondoggle. At one point early on, they tore it up, then resurfaced it, and then tore it up again. The block between Suipacha and Esmeralda, (just west of the one I mentioned above), is still closed to through traffic. At one point, it was even closed to pedestrians for a few days. The whole business just reeks of graft and corruption, and reminds me of Macri's time as Jefe de Gobierno, when he threw all those construction jobs to his buddy Nicky Caputo's companies.

There is so much corruption you wouldn't believe it. I've built a lot of buildings, houses, bought/sold a lot of land. You wouldn't believe the amount of kick backs government officials want. I NEVER paid then and my projects took much longer but I knew once you pay you never stop.

 

[earlyretirement]

The stink of corruption has followed Larrata and his Verruca Salt sidekick around for decades now. Their expenditures are so far beyond their means there's no possible legal explanation. I wonder if Dr. Favaloro at least raised a smile from beyond the grave the night Larrata's ambitions died?

Yes, exactly.

 

[earlyretirement]

I am not certain Milei will pull this off. My gut tells me he can't. He barely edged out a win in 'las paso' and only 63% voted. I am more inclined to think that the "no shows" will NOT vote for him. I am thinking Massa pulls this thing out in October.

Do you want to place a wager on this? I will give you 3 to 1 odds. We can have some third party hold the funds in escrow. I will take up to $50,000 US but you have to decide by September 20 and we have to find a way to safely escrow it. I'll take this bet with anyone that wants to bet and give you 3 to 1 odds. This is for the winner of the Presidency.

 

[earlyretirement]

Bold prediction, not one many are making

Exactly. People are high or ignorant if they boldly proclaim that Milei doesn't have a shot. I've studied politics and economy my whole life and my money is on Milei.

 

[PerryP]

I dislike Milei for many reasons as I dislike all the politicians in Argentina . I feel though that Milei is having a tremendous amount of help to win the elections in Argentina and there seems to be something planned about this . I predict he will win and the country will go to hell in a handbasket. He is not a leader that unites people but the opposite which will cause the worst crisis ever seen in Argentinas history by March 2024 . I am not a peronist and do not follow any political party currently But for me Milei will be the most damaging for Argentina by a long shot!