Real Estate Sales Fabulous article that details how Argentina went from Being the wealthiest country in world to now

[earlyretirement]

I came across this excellent read. I'm always amazed how Argentina went from being one of the wealthiest to this.

Argentina's Century-Long Decline

How and why Argentina went from being one of the richest countries to where we are now (and how stats do not always tell the whole story).

www.bowtiedmara.io

 

[RinderHerts]

To say the least, this article leaves out a lot of important facts.
It basically decided its ideological destination, and then omitted anything that didnt get it there.

The "conquest of the desert", for example, was, far from being "liberal" and "free market", genocide against the indigneous peoples, and a wholesale grab of their land.
And the idea that the same rich familes dont run things now, just like they always have, is somehow missing as well.
There were never big "land grants" to immigrants.
Then, as now, the vast majority of arable land is owned by the ultra wealthy.

Currently, 40% of arable land is owned by 1%, and 90% is owned by the top 11%.
And those same families are the ones who "bought" YPF from Menem, or Edenor and Edesur, or any of the other companies that were privatized, and at Putin type of prices.

Consider the "free market" aspects of the 1930s treaty with the British, which occured at the height of the Argentine Economy- a guaranteed 85% of exports of beef from Argentina would be from British owned packing plants, 15% for Argentine companies.

The game has always been fixed. It was never "free".

 

[earlyretirement]

To say the least, this article leaves out a lot of important facts.
It basically decided its ideological destination, and then omitted anything that didnt get it there.

The "conquest of the desert", for example, was, far from being "liberal" and "free market", genocide against the indigneous peoples, and a wholesale grab of their land.
And the idea that the same rich familes dont run things now, just like they always have, is somehow missing as well.
There were never big "land grants" to immigrants.
Then, as now, the vast majority of arable land is owned by the ultra wealthy.

Currently, 40% of arable land is owned by 1%, and 90% is owned by the top 11%.
And those same families are the ones who "bought" YPF from Menem, or Edenor and Edesur, or any of the other companies that were privatized, and at Putin type of prices.

Consider the "free market" aspects of the 1930s treaty with the British, which occured at the height of the Argentine Economy- a guaranteed 85% of exports of beef from Argentina would be from British owned packing plants, 15% for Argentine companies.

The game has always been fixed. It was never "free".

Would love to read your detailed analysis of the other side. I agree with the main premise of his Argentina which is Argentina used to be one of the wealthiest countries in the world. They screwed things up and now they are one of the poorest.

 

[ErickAdrian]

Would love to read your detailed analysis of the other side. I agree with the main premise of his Argentina which is Argentina used to be one of the wealthiest countries in the world. They screwed things up and now they are one of the poorest.

and I would find it really interesting to read articles written by people who don't have skin in the game: people like academics and researchers who are paid by their universities to analyse all the facts. If I understand Mr Mara's line of business correctly, he makes money whether markets are rising or falling - just so long as other people are in there.playing the game. A bit like real estate agents who are always claiming that now is the right time to be buying or selling property. And for a real estate agent, it always is.

 

[earlyretirement]

and I would find it really interesting to read articles written by people who don't have skin in the game: people like academics and researchers who are paid by their universities to analyse all the facts. If I understand Mr Mara's line of business correctly, he makes money whether markets are rising or falling - just so long as other people are in there.playing the game. A bit like real estate agents who are always claiming that now is the right time to be buying or selling property. And for a real estate agent, it always is.

I'm not sure what his angle is. I don't know him. But I've read many of his articles and he is really intelligent and has a a lot of analysis of his posts. If you have detailed counter posts that paint another picture, please post them. Or take the time to analyze your hypothesis of what you believe caused Argentina's failures.


Also, I totally agree with you realtors that keep saying only to buy buy buy no matter the situation have been WRONG. The smartest money I know are people that started buying after the corralito. Then they road property prices up some up to 2 or 3 X the purchase price. Then many sold at the top of the market. And now that things are depressed again, they are going to start buying. Real estate is all about timing.

I know this topic well. I entered Argentina real estate at the very bottom. I road it all the way up and then dumped almost all of my properties. Real estate prices have been falling for 17 QUARTERS in a row. It may fall a little more. But nothing moves in straight lines forever. The cycles go up and down.

I did the same thing in the USA. Selling at the top and then exiting and waiting for things to crash and buying at the bottom. Now getting ready again to sell at the top and start the cycle over in Argentina.

 

[HipsBaBs]

I find it surprising to see so many expatriates, both from the United States and the Argentine right wing, expressing discontent with their adopted country on this forum. It raises the question: why not return to the "land of the free"?

Perhaps it's because the social security payments in the United States wouldn't provide adequate financial support, whereas the adopted country, despite the criticism, offers a quality of life that might surpass what they could achieve in the "land of the free."

 

[earlyretirement]

I find it surprising to see so many expatriates, both from the United States and the Argentine right wing, expressing discontent with their adopted country on this forum. It raises the question: why not return to the "land of the free"?

Perhaps it's because the social security payments in the United States wouldn't provide adequate financial support, whereas the adopted country, despite the criticism, offers a quality of life that might surpass what they could achieve in the "land of the free."

Actually I'd disagree with you. I don't think people hate their adopted country. They LOVE their home countries. Americans love the USA. It's just getting to the point it's not affordable for the masses and will get worse. In 5-10 years you're going to see Americans flocking USA and looking for more affordable places. Places like Argentina.

As well, the ones I know LOVE Argentina. They just don't like this shitty politics there and the broken system. They want to see things improve there. I totally agree with you the shitty Social Security payments won't cover anything. The average SS payment is only $1725 US dollars. You can't do anything with that in the USA. But in Argentina if you have a paid off place, you can live like a king.

Milei should do things like a Golden Visa program and many other measures. Argentina is a dream for retirees. And it will be in the future as well. Watch and see. These are people that will fall in love with Argentina as well. Many people want to see Argentina do really well and succeed. But it can't without systemic changes.

The most frustrated people are not people that "hate their adopted country" as you say. They really are passionate about and love Argentina and that's why they want to see it change so badly.

 

[earlyretirement]

and I would find it really interesting to read articles written by people who don't have skin in the game: people like academics and researchers who are paid by their universities to analyse all the facts. If I understand Mr Mara's line of business correctly, he makes money whether markets are rising or falling - just so long as other people are in there.playing the game. A bit like real estate agents who are always claiming that now is the right time to be buying or selling property. And for a real estate agent, it always is.

See the smart money entered Argentina at the bottom around 2002. And then they exited in 2010 before the economy started bottoming out. And then they sold their real estate portfolios in Argentina in 2018-2019 at the absolute peak. Numbers don't lie. We are close to a bottom. It WILL go lower but it would be crazy and untrue to say money won't be made at the bottom. That's the best time to buy when there is blood in the streets.

"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when other's are fearful".

 

[ScotTay]

Actually I'd disagree with you. I don't think people hate their adopted country. They LOVE their home countries. Americans love the USA. It's just getting to the point it's not affordable for the masses and will get worse. In 5-10 years you're going to see Americans flocking USA and looking for more affordable places. Places like Argentina.

As well, the ones I know LOVE Argentina. They just don't like this shitty politics there and the broken system. They want to see things improve there. I totally agree with you the shitty Social Security payments won't cover anything. The average SS payment is only $1725 US dollars. You can't do anything with that in the USA. But in Argentina if you have a paid off place, you can live like a king.

Milei should do things like a Golden Visa program and many other measures. Argentina is a dream for retirees. And it will be in the future as well. Watch and see. These are people that will fall in love with Argentina as well. Many people want to see Argentina do really well and succeed. But it can't without systemic changes.

The most frustrated people are not people that "hate their adopted country" as you say. They really are passionate about and love Argentina and that's why they want to see it change so badly.

$1,725 is the GROSS average. When Part B is deducted it is a good deal less. Also many people get less than the average. Even so, it's many times more than Argentine pensioners get.

 

[ScotTay]

I find it surprising to see so many expatriates, both from the United States and the Argentine right wing, expressing discontent with their adopted country on this forum. It raises the question: why not return to the "land of the free"?

Perhaps it's because the social security payments in the United States wouldn't provide adequate financial support, whereas the adopted country, despite the criticism, offers a quality of life that might surpass what they could achieve in the "land of the free."

What troubles me is that there are expats who want to sustain the current system because it's to their advantege, no matter how much most Argentines have to suffer.

 

[NicoHere]

What troubles me is that there are expats who want to sustain the current system because it's to their advantege, no matter how much most Argentines have to suffer.

Yeah, I don't have any real objection to this - why would people not have political opinions that work to their own advantage.

But when you get some goofy people claiming that only Americans do that, or that it's bad for people to do it . . . that's when you know that they're not serious.

Anyway, this one is interesting: “Argentina does not have the dollars to dollarize, and it does not have access to the financial market to obtain dollars. The only thing this would do is inject more Argentine securities into the hands of the international private sector, directly or indirectly, therefore further lowering the value of Argentine securities.”

Alejandro Werner is not particularly credible, and in typical terms if the country does want to dollarize, it will need to work closely with the IMF.

But Milei is proposing something much more radical, which is something approximating gradual legalization of the dollar for domestic transactions (one assumes paying taxes and so forth).

Massa and the critics are definitely correct that it will lead to a giant jump in the cost of some services and almost all products, particularly in conjunction with Milei's plans to cut subsidies across the board.

It will be a very tough time for a couple years, and Argentina will never again be as cheap for foreigners. But ultimately for sure they finally get out of this ridiculous spiral they have been in for so long, and join the rest of the world (particularly Asia) in becoming wealthy again. Dominican Republic is on track, and Argentina has so much more going for it.

 

[earlyretirement]

What troubles me is that there are expats who want to sustain the current system because it's to their advantege, no matter how much most Argentines have to suffer.

I totally agree! See, these people to me don't truly love Argentina. They don't want to see it succeed. All they care about is their cheap Western Union transfers and blue dollar rates. Systemic change IS desperately needed in Argentina. I'm not sure how anyone that truly loves Argentina can argue against that. The fact that Milei is ahead shows you how desperate people are, especially the young. They want to see systemic change in their lifetimes.

I know it's probably impossible during my lifetime but hopefully for my kids they will see it since they were both born there and love Argentina.

 

[earlyretirement]

Yeah, I don't have any real objection to this - why would people not have political opinions that work to their own advantage.

But when you get some goofy people claiming that only Americans do that, or that it's bad for people to do it . . . that's when you know that they're not serious.

Anyway, this one is interesting: “Argentina does not have the dollars to dollarize, and it does not have access to the financial market to obtain dollars. The only thing this would do is inject more Argentine securities into the hands of the international private sector, directly or indirectly, therefore further lowering the value of Argentine securities.”

Alejandro Werner is not particularly credible, and in typical terms if the country does want to dollarize, it will need to work closely with the IMF.

But Milei is proposing something much more radical, which is something approximating gradual legalization of the dollar for domestic transactions (one assumes paying taxes and so forth).

Massa and the critics are definitely correct that it will lead to a giant jump in the cost of some services and almost all products, particularly in conjunction with Milei's plans to cut subsidies across the board.

It will be a very tough time for a couple years, and Argentina will never again be as cheap for foreigners. But ultimately for sure they finally get out of this ridiculous spiral they have been in for so long, and join the rest of the world (particularly Asia) in becoming wealthy again. Dominican Republic is on track, and Argentina has so much more going for it.

Argentina is very very very cheap now. Especially add in the inflation adjusted dollar -(https://www.usinflationcalculator.com ) and you'll see prices are really low. Argentina will always be a mess unless they get someone in that will change laws and understand things are totally broken. Because without doing that you will have chaos and then fairly relative periods of calm but then it will revert back to chaos without fixing the underlying issues.