Economy Finally, an economic plan that makes sense!

[AllCruz]

Macri's government, along with the IMF, have agreed on an economic program that should succeed in bringing solid economic, and sustainable. growth to the country, far less inflation, and hopefully as a result, more social justice. There are only two impediments that may cause the program to fail. Let's review the main parts of the program, its pain and benefits, and finally then the potential impediments to it.
Basically, the program calls for a dollar at $44 (or less if dollars flow into the country), and to adjust upwardly on a daily basis around 3% per month; no government or central bank selling dollars, which means if you want dollars, you will only be able to buy them from someone willing to sell them, and that does not include the central bank or government. No primary government deficit (that is, a balanced budget not counting interest payments) and lastly, no new printing of money until June of next year. Wow. A plain and simple program that any financially successful family lives by; that is, no more spending of what you don't earn.

What's the pain of this program? In the short run, it could be huge. An initially severe recession, lots of new unemployment, and large drop in the standard of living of the general population, because inflation will have increased far more than salaries, and lots of people will be out of work.

What's the benefit of this tough medicine? In the near term, you will have far less inflation, and strong economic growth that is sustainable. The growth will come thru exports. You will sell in valuable dollars, and pay your costs in shitty pesos! Likely winners are the agricultural sector, the oil and gas industry, minerals, tourism, and all others that can export.

What are the main impediments to this makes sense program? Sticking to it! Will the government really be able to avoid printing new money? Will social unrest topple the government? Liquid medicine usually taste terrible, but the results can be super positive. The key, of course, is to swallow the medicine. Will Argentine's do it? Based on history, the answer seems to be no. This is the society of the "quiero flan!". However, I have hope that Argentines will finally understand that you cannot spend more than you generate over the long run.

 

[NigjeFs]

The IMF plan is an orthodox recipe and nothing new. Macri should have gone for zero deficit, zero money printing and drastically reducing inflation on his first week in office. Three years later, with an economy that wasn't exactly booming, it is ridiculous. He has almost no chance of being reelected to actually continue with this plan. His administration has been a disgrace, as well as that of he K's of course. He really didn't need to wait for the IMF to come up with the recipe, which is known and has been tried and used. He should have done it and with private loans while he was still getting them. He just sold out the country. It is pathetic to see him relaunching his campaign from the US and letting the IMF choose the Central bank's president, and this is just the tip of the iceberg.

 

[AllCruz]

The IMF plan is an orthodox recipe and nothing new. Macri should have gone for zero deficit, zero money printing and drastically reducing inflation on his first week in office. Three years later, with an economy that wasn't exactly booming, it is ridiculous. He has almost no chance of being reelected to actually continue with this plan. His administration has been a disgrace, as well as that of he K's of course. He really didn't need to wait for the IMF to come up with the recipe, which is known and has been tried and used. He should have done it and with private loans while he was still getting them. He just sold out the country. It is pathetic to see him relaunching his campaign from the US and letting the IMF choose the Central bank's president, and this is just the tip of the iceberg.

I suspect you have never lent money because the first rule of lending is make sure you’ll get repaid. If you want me to lend you money, sorry, but I dictate terms. Don’t like my terms? Don’t borrow from me. Furthermore, if you had a record of not honoring your debts, of filing for bankruptcy, of continually over spending, of accumulating huge debts that we all suspect you cannot re pay, and still you had the desire to borrow even more from me, what would I demand from you? Your word means nothing, you have a husband that pressures you all the time to not pay, and your kids demand flan.
Your post exemplifies what terrifies lenders of more lending. You should be thanking the imf, praising them, and showing support to Macri, even though you may not like him.
Your post is the tip of the iceberg. It reflects the complete financial ignorance of too many of the inhabitants of this country.
I hope you understand my reply is not an attack on you as a person, but rather a critique of your financial intelligence.

 

[GerardX]

I suspect you have never lent money because the first rule of lending is make sure you’ll get repaid. If you want me to lend you money, sorry, but I dictate terms. Don’t like my terms? Don’t borrow from me. Furthermore, if you had a record of not honoring your debts, of filing for bankruptcy, of continually over spending, of accumulating huge debts that we all suspect you cannot re pay, and still you had the desire to borrow even more from me, what would I demand from you? Your word means nothing, you have a husband that pressures you all the time to not pay, and your kids demand flan.
Your post exemplifies what terrifies lenders of more lending. You should be thanking the imf, praising them, and showing support to Macri, even though you may not like him.
Your post is the tip of the iceberg. It reflects the complete financial ignorance of too many of the inhabitants of this country.
I hope you understand my reply is not an attack on you as a person, but rather a critique of your financial intelligence.

Help me understand: are you saying that Macri could not have done this at the beginning of his term because, even though he did have private loans, he did not have enough of those, enough financial backing, the kind he is getting now from the IMF?

 

[AllCruz]

Help me understand: are you saying that Macri could not have done this at the beginning of his term because, even though he did have private loans, he did not have enough of those, enough financial backing, the kind he is getting now from the IMF?

When solving problems, you often pick the solution that offers least resistance. Three years ago it is likely that Macri thought that borrowing money to finance his deficits was an easier approach than the cutting spending, and less traumatic. He may have also believed that doing so would give him the time to come up with other measures that would make the economy grow fast enough, such that tax revenues would increase enough to reduce the deficit significantly. Regardless of what he thought, it did not work, and he's now where he is. I do think that his new plan, and the IMF's approval of it, it the right one.

Keep in mind too that Macri may have looked at the events experienced by De la Rua's government and he may have wanted to avoid their experience. As I recall, initially the cut spending, and the were forced out quickly.

 

[PoulCess]

Saying that Macri should have come into power making huge socioeconopolitical changes are ignoring or forgetting that he barely won the election against a very stale, hysterical and increasingly obviously corrupt government and after sucking up to the peronist and unmilitant ks. Also non peronist governments don't have a history of success and longevity because, in large part, while the government might change the significant peronist biased institutions, laws and culture remain.

Half the population would rather this country burn , poverty increase massively etc than see Macri be moderately successful.

 

[earlyretirement]

Saying that Macri should have come into power making huge socioeconopolitical changes are ignoring or forgetting that he barely won the election against a very stale, hysterical and increasingly obviously corrupt government and after sucking up to the peronist and unmilitant ks. Also non peronist governments don't have a history of success and longevity because, in large part, while the government might change the significant peronist biased institutions, laws and culture remain.

Half the population would rather this country burn , poverty increase massively etc than see Macri be moderately successful.

When solving problems, you often pick the solution that offers least resistance. Three years ago it is likely that Macri thought that borrowing money to finance his deficits was an easier approach than the cutting spending, and less traumatic. He may have also believed that doing so would give him the time to come up with other measures that would make the economy grow fast enough, such that tax revenues would increase enough to reduce the deficit significantly. Regardless of what he thought, it did not work, and he's now where he is. I do think that his new plan, and the IMF's approval of it, it the right one.

Keep in mind too that Macri may have looked at the events experienced by De la Rua's government and he may have wanted to avoid their experience. As I recall, initially the cut spending, and the were forced out quickly.

Both make EXCELLENT points. Macri made a ton of mistakes and definitely he has to answer for them as the President of Argentina. But some of you are totally unrealistic and don't really understand how screwed up Argentina is if you think that he shoulders all the blame for what is going on. Be realistic on what a train wreck he inherited. I don't think that many people quite understand how bad things were.

It boggles my mind that people are asking for examples how CFK lied or trying to say that inflation wasn't high under her. That's just totally crazy. I already posted in detail in another post about the horrible misfortunes that all coincided at the same time with one of the worst droughts in Argentina in 50 years and the loss of income from corn/soy exports. As well as interest rates going up.

I believe that Macri should have cut spending drastically quickly. But as rickulivi pointed out that's not an easy option when you barely got elected. I already read posters here complaining about their utilities going up and people getting laid off. It seems like all the Monday morning quarter backing here don't live in reality. Running a company in Argentina is really tough, running a huge company is tougher, running a country like Argentina under these circumstances is almost impossible no matter which party is in place.

Some of the posts here are completely unrealistic. I don't think many in Argentina even understand what a horrible situation they are in. The IMF is the lender of last resort. Those that say that IMF loan wasn't needed are totally unrealistic and don't even have a basic fundamental knowledge of finance. I don't mean to be insincere or rude with anyone. But when you have the type of problems Argentina has you have to plan ahead and you can't wait until the last minute to try to come up with financing when you are as big of a deadbeat as Argentina is (sad but true). As another poster mentioned, you should be thanking your lucky stars that the IMF agreed to this EMERGENCY loan. Without it things would be even more dire.

Sure some can argue that this is a temporary band aid. Which may be true. But still it gives Argentina more time. These are very desperate times and desperate times call for desperate measures.

I still think that Macri should have moved quicker but most likely if he did then you'd have another form of chaos. It's one of those damned if you do and damned if you don't situation. Obviously he made many mistakes but many of you are acting like all of these things were automatic and easy decisions which wouldn't have had other consequences. Whether locals want to admit it or not, Argentines are very difficult people. They are complainers and I don't find they have the work ethic of many other countries.

The pain and chaos that Argentina is experiencing now isn't the result of decisions that just happened during Macri's short time in office. It's something that has been brewing for a long time and like I mentioned, most likely you will see these chaotic down falls every few decades no matter who is in office.

In short, Argentina is broken. Argentines are a proud people and I think it pisses them off that their country (as beautiful as it is) is so screwed up. They don't like to acknowledge that fundamentally their system is broken (banking, finance, legal system, employment/labor laws, tax system, trust with one another, political system, massive amounts of corruption, work ethic, poverty levels, horrible education system, efficiency, etc, etc etc).

So continually as there is another crises they will blame the President or political party. But in essence they don't acknowledge that the country is broken in almost every way so they get pissed and blame the politicians (who are also typically corrupt and inept). And it REALLY pains me to say this as I truly love Argentina. But I have to call it like I see it. Until you fix the underlying problems, you will never have long-lasting systemic stability.

So no I don't blame Macri for all these woes just as I didn't blame Kirchner's for all the woes. In between calm periods you will always have these chaotic periods because of the way Argentina is broken.

 

[Marthaty]

There is zero chance this will end well. Macri and ilk will be voted out. Replaced by even more populist popliticians who will not conform to the IMF terms. End result will be more disaster for argentina and it will be blamed on the IMF.

 

[earlyretirement]

There is zero chance this will end well. Macri and ilk will be voted out. Replaced by even more populist popliticians who will not conform to the IMF terms. End result will be more disaster for argentina and it will be blamed on the IMF.

I copied and pasted this from one of the many articles I read. I think it's all that is needed to sum up the situation:

"The unease has even invaded those who voted for Macri in the hopes that the problems inherited from the Kirchner era would be solved. Nacho, 24, who works at a candy store in the evenings, says that he knows “very little” about the IMF, but has few expectations about the help that might arrive. “It’s a disaster,” he says, “everything is going up in price and I can’t make ends meet. I earn 16,000 pesos [$700] and pay 12,000 [$520] in rent. I am anti-Kirchner because they stole everything, but Macri said that he was going to make a change and there hasn’t been one. I voted for Macri but now I regret it, I won’t vote for him again.” "

Macri was a big fool for setting the wrong tone in the beginning for Argentines. “Today is a historic day: it signals a change into a new era that, as I told you and you believed, is going to be wonderful,” proclaimed Macri on the night of November 22, 2015. “This change will have to lead us toward the future, toward the opportunities that we need to grow, to make progress.” He promised a "revolution of Joy". And the Argentines were foolish to believe this was possible. He talked about, “This change needs to channel all its energy and vitality into building the kind of Argentina that we all dream of. We have said that we have to build an Argentina with zero poverty, and we’re going to do it together.” "

I get he wanted to try to be positive but the Argentines were foolish as well. Instead he should have scared them into the nightmare of a situation Argentina was in. Instead of being so positive he should have told them that it's not going to be easy and he won't have time to fix everything in the short-term but he would do his best. This was a really unrealistic message to start out with. He should have told them that the insanely high inflation under the CFK years would most likely continue and it would be really difficult to contain it. He set totally false expectations from the get go.

So yes, absolutely he is a total failure but again, I'm not sure things would be a total mess if anyone else got elected either. Argentina is a very screwed up country.

 

[NigjeFs]

I suspect you have never lent money because the first rule of lending is make sure you’ll get repaid. If you want me to lend you money, sorry, but I dictate terms. Don’t like my terms? Don’t borrow from me. Furthermore, if you had a record of not honoring your debts, of filing for bankruptcy, of continually over spending, of accumulating huge debts that we all suspect you cannot re pay, and still you had the desire to borrow even more from me, what would I demand from you? Your word means nothing, you have a husband that pressures you all the time to not pay, and your kids demand flan.
Your post exemplifies what terrifies lenders of more lending. You should be thanking the imf, praising them, and showing support to Macri, even though you may not like him.
Your post is the tip of the iceberg. It reflects the complete financial ignorance of too many of the inhabitants of this country.
I hope you understand my reply is not an attack on you as a person, but rather a critique of your financial intelligence.

You are totally missing my point. I do not blame the IMF for the crisis or think it is some kind of devil for ensuring that Argentina will pay them back. I am absolutely blaming Macri for going to them, etc.

 

[AllCruz]

You are totally missing my point. I do not blame the IMF for the crisis or think it is some kind of devil for ensuring that Argentina will pay them back. I am absolutely blaming Macri for going to them, etc.

I apologize if I have missed your point, but I was not sure what it was. Was it that Macri should have cut spending from day one, or that he should have not gone to the IMF? I will address both.

Point 1: Macri should have gotten tough on spending from the first day in office. It's easy now to say what he should have done; it's a whole different ball game when you are faced with tough choices, and you need to make a decision. He may have made the wrong decision, but he is certainly correcting that now. Haven't you ever made a decision based on the information you had on hand, only to realize later that you made the wrong one? Should you get blamed for that?

Point 2: You are blaming Macri for going to the IMF. I don't know how financially astute you are, so excuse me if I assume the worst. Do you understand the difference between income, expenses and cash flow? Your income can be equal to your expenses (no deficit) but you can still go broke because you don't have the cash to pay your maturing debts (liabilities). That's why it's so important to not only watch your income and expenses, but your cash flow too.

Here's an example: Assume Macri balances the primary budget next year, as promised, but he will still run a deficit equal to the interest expense the government needs to pay on its dollar debt. Let's assume that's a few billion dollars. Where does he get the money to pay for that, when no one wants to lend him? We should all thank the lender of last resort: the IMF. There's more. Debt matures; for example, next year the Bonar 24 has to pay the 15% of their maturity value (not interest, just return of principal). That's a few more billion dollars. Where does he get the money to pay for that?

Unless you propose another default, you should be saying "Thank you IMF for bailing us out, again!"

 

[NigjeFs]

I apologize if I have missed your point, but I was not sure what it was. Was it that Macri should have cut spending from day one, or that he should have not gone to the IMF? I will address both.

Point 1: Macri should have gotten tough on spending from the first day in office. It's easy now to say what he should have done; it's a whole different ball game when you are faced with tough choices, and you need to make a decision. He may have made the wrong decision, but he is certainly correcting that now. Haven't you ever made a decision based on the information you had on hand, only to realize later that you made the wrong one? Should you get blamed for that?

Point 2: You are blaming Macri for going to the IMF. I don't know how financially astute you are, so excuse me if I assume the worst. Do you understand the difference between income, expenses and cash flow? Your income can be equal to your expenses (no deficit) but you can still go broke because you don't have the cash to pay your maturing debts (liabilities). That's why it's so important to not only watch your income and expenses, but your cash flow too.

Here's an example: Assume Macri balances the primary budget next year, as promised, but he will still run a deficit equal to the interest expense the government needs to pay on its dollar debt. Let's assume that's a few billion dollars. Where does he get the money to pay for that, when no one wants to lend him? We should all thank the lender of last resort: the IMF. There's more. Debt matures; for example, next year the Bonar 24 has to pay the 15% of their maturity value (not interest, just return of principal). That's a few more billion dollars. Where does he get the money to pay for that?

Unless you propose another default, you should be saying "Thank you IMF for bailing us out, again!"

I appreciate your reply. I am a well seasoned investor operating in different stock and real estate markets for over a decade, so I understand a thing or two.

Macri was expected to clean out the economy, and that means zero deficit from day one. The president having the wrong information is unacceptable: if his team and advisers are unable to provide him with accurate information, they should resign.

I am not sure what your grounds are for taking the less traumatic decisions, history has proven that gradualism has systematically failed worldwide. You can only stabilize an economy with shock measures.

A devaluation was needed and it should have happened years ago, to reduce public internal debt.

The IMF, just like any bank or loaner is in its fair right to take all measures it considers appropriate to secure it will get its money back. HOWEVER, Macri should have used private loans under this same old and repeated plan that you praise so much.

The IMF has loaned Argentina money to secure private debt repayment. This money is not for infrastructure, salaries, pensions, hospitals or schools. As a matter of fact the IMF does not care whether people eat or not. It prevents Argentina from defaulting yes, but unless the current administration does its part, it will help nothing.

In the end Macri has proven to be more of the same populism but with a different tone. He is keeping the poor poor, the middle class is paying for all his " mistakes " ( which I don't believe are such ), and the rich stay richer. We pay more taxes than any country in the world to get c**p in return and they keep adding new taxes ( who would come invest here? ) He is trying to turn the country into an exporter of primary agricultural products ( you see a model where big land owners are they only ones making money ). No industry or development.

Macri systematically lied to the middle class that voted for him and will get his payback in 2019. I do not like Trump, I thought he was ridiculous when talking about building a wall, etc. He is about to start building it and the economy in the US is booming.

Macri needs CFK more than he needs the IMF at this point. He needs the big corrupt enemy that makes him look not so bad after all. But they are both the same. Being Macri's father one of the heads of corruption, how deep and hard do you think he will fight it?

People should not be paying for the ongoing party of corruption of the last decades: the economy could be clean and debt would be reduced by renegotiating public services contracts for instance, or by using a system similar to Chile's for public infrastructure... but if they did so, all of this millions of public money would not be going through the dirty hands of corrupt politicians.

Argentina 2018 is just more of the same old. Rickulivi, what is it that makes you SO happy and impressed about it? Unless you are holding Arg bonds... I don't get it?

 

[AllCruz]

I appreciate your reply. I am a well seasoned investor operating in different stock and real estate markets for over a decade, so I understand a thing or two.

Macri was expected to clean out the economy, and that means zero deficit from day one. The president having the wrong information is unacceptable: if his team and advisers are unable to provide him with accurate information, they should resign.

I am not sure what your grounds are for taking the less traumatic decisions, history has proven that gradualism has systematically failed worldwide. You can only stabilize an economy with shock measures.

A devaluation was needed and it should have happened years ago, to reduce public internal debt.

The IMF, just like any bank or loaner is in its fair right to take all measures it considers appropriate to secure it will get its money back. HOWEVER, Macri should have used private loans under this same old and repeated plan that you praise so much.

The IMF has loaned Argentina money to secure private debt repayment. This money is not for infrastructure, salaries, pensions, hospitals or schools. As a matter of fact the IMF does not care whether people eat or not. It prevents Argentina from defaulting yes, but unless the current administration does its part, it will help nothing.

In the end Macri has proven to be more of the same populism but with a different tone. He is keeping the poor poor, the middle class is paying for all his " mistakes " ( which I don't believe are such ), and the rich stay richer. We pay more taxes than any country in the world to get c**p in return and they keep adding new taxes ( who would come invest here? ) He is trying to turn the country into an exporter of primary agricultural products ( you see a model where big land owners are they only ones making money ). No industry or development.

Macri systematically lied to the middle class that voted for him and will get his payback in 2019. I do not like Trump, I thought he was ridiculous when talking about building a wall, etc. He is about to start building it and the economy in the US is booming.

Macri needs CFK more than he needs the IMF at this point. He needs the big corrupt enemy that makes him look not so bad after all. But they are both the same. Being Macri's father one of the heads of corruption, how deep and hard do you think he will fight it?

People should not be paying for the ongoing party of corruption of the last decades: the economy could be clean and debt would be reduced by renegotiating public services contracts for instance, or by using a system similar to Chile's for public infrastructure... but if they did so, all of this millions of public money would not be going through the dirty hands of corrupt politicians.

Argentina 2018 is just more of the same old. Rickulivi, what is it that makes you SO happy and impressed about it? Unless you are holding Arg bonds... I don't get it?

Who said I am happy? I am just confident that the new economic program makes sense, and it should lead--after the recession is over--to sustain economic growth. On the other hand, I am usually a happy guy, so thanks for pointing that out!

Another of your comments was: " if his team and advisers are unable to provide him with accurate information, they should resign." Nikad: you are right! A whole bunch of them have resigned, so what else do you want? I can't remember all the names and I may misspell a few, but here is a partial list: the guy with the German or Austrian name in the central bank, Melconian in Banco Nacion, Quintana (oidos and ojos de Macri), the guy running for governor in Tucuman, the woman foreign minister, Caputo from the Central Bank, the guy that returned to the university in the US East coast, and so on.

Anyhow, I have enjoyed your post, and your comments.

 

[NigjeFs]

Who said I am happy? I am just confident that the new economic program makes sense, and it should lead--after the recession is over--to sustain economic growth. On the other hand, I am usually a happy guy, so thanks for pointing that out!

Another of your comments was: " if his team and advisers are unable to provide him with accurate information, they should resign." Nikad: you are right! A whole bunch of them have resigned, so what else do you want? I can't remember all the names and I may misspell a few, but here is a partial list: the guy with the German or Austrian name in the central bank, Melconian in Banco Nacion, Quintana (oidos and ojos de Macri), the guy running for governor in Tucuman, the woman foreign minister, Caputo from the Central Bank, the guy that returned to the university in the US East coast, and so on.

Anyhow, I have enjoyed your post, and your comments.

Any decent economist knows that Macri should have reduced deficit, stop monetary emission and reduce inflation in order to sustain economic growth. This " amazing " plan that the IMF is now imposing in exchange of its loans, should have been implemented from day zero. Three years after, Argentina would still be sovereign and the economy should be growing. This is what people voted him for. He did not honor his word, lied miserably, and now took big loans that future administrations will have to deal with. I still don't understand what is the " magic " recipe that you seem to think the IMF has give Argentina as if it was a gift from the gods (???). The thread's title implies that you seem to be relieved...well, being it that Macri got all this money without any consent, it really does not make any sense to me, as this money is meant to be repaid by future administrations...

 

[GerardX]

Any decent economist knows that Macri should have reduced deficit, stop monetary emission and reduce inflation in order to sustain economic growth. This " amazing " plan that the IMF is now imposing in exchange of its loans, should have been implemented from day zero. Three years after, Argentina would still be sovereign and the economy should be growing. This is what people voted him for. He did not honor his word, lied miserably, and now took big loans that future administrations will have to deal with. I still don't understand what is the " magic " recipe that you seem to think the IMF has give Argentina as if it was a gift from the gods (???). The thread's title implies that you seem to be relieved...well, being it that Macri got all this money without any consent, it really does not make any sense to me, as this money is meant to be repaid by future administrations...

Are you sure that all Argentine economist agree with your assessment? You imply that if they don't, that their opinions aren't worth anything. It's this pejorative, disqualifying sort of language on this forum that makes me not want to participate. If you don't agree with me, you are totally wrong and stupid.

 

[GerardX]

And before anyone else says it, yes, I have used that kind of language myself, unfortunately. We all need to watch that and just stick to stating our opinions and the thinking behind them.

 

[NigjeFs]

Are you sure that all Argentine economist agree with your assessment? You imply that if they don't, that their opinions aren't worth anything. It's this pejorative, disqualifying sort of language on this forum that makes me not want to participate. If you don't agree with me, you are totally wrong and stupid.

I am sorry you don't like the tone. I am not a native English speaker so I am sure I miss things along the way. I always try to use neutral language. I have yet to hear any economist saying that they should not stop monetary emission, reduce deficit and control inflation, care to name a few? I would be interested in reading their reasons.

 

[GerardX]

I am sorry you don't like the tone. I am not a native English speaker so I am sure I miss things along the way. I always try to use neutral language. I have yet to hear any economist saying that they should not stop monetary emission, reduce deficit and control inflation, care to name a few? I would be interested in reading their reasons.

your English is great, and your "any decent economist" was not that problematic. I just get tired of that kind of language from myself and other, and what you wrote just hit me the wrong way. Back to the what you said, I think you are right that most economists would agree that Macri needed to do the things you outlined, the questions was when. He was trying to do those things but over a longer period of time, and lots of economists at the time thought his gradulist approach was the right one. Because of what happened in the world and in the country and because of errors of Macri's own making, we know now that this was not a good approach. If Macri, the rich kid, had tried to make a lot of these reforms from day one, he would have been called even more so the rich people's president and would now be on a beach somewhere drinking pina coladas after having been helicopetered out of the country. I think it's just too easy to say now what he should have done, even though he is responsible in large part for the mess the country is in.

 

[earlyretirement]

I am sorry you don't like the tone. I am not a native English speaker so I am sure I miss things along the way. I always try to use neutral language. I have yet to hear any economist saying that they should not stop monetary emission, reduce deficit and control inflation, care to name a few? I would be interested in reading their reasons.

your English is fabulous. The biggest problem often times as it relates to Argentina is that economists or financial professionals in general (heck..or people in general) don't truly understand Argentina. So one thing in theory, in a vacuum isn't the same in principle when you have such a complicated country. It's clear to me Nikad from reading your posts that you do understand Argentina. It seems like you do business here and have lived here for quite a while.

I do agree with you that Macri when taking his words and promises is a liar. I do agree he erred by being way way way too optimistic and promising things he (nor anyone else for that matter) could ever possibly deliver.

I know everyone is totally frustrated. For good reasons. But I think it's always important to realize just how difficult things are there. You try to fix one thing and it presents a huge problem for another group in Argentina. Yes, we're all used to the protestors but there is an almost careful dance you have to do as to not cause tremendous chaos. That's the most difficult thing I found about Argentina. It's hard to solve one issue without creating a totally separate chaotic issue. I do business all over the world but have yet to encounter such a complicated country like Argentina.

I'm certainly not as optimistic as some here that this IMF emergency loan will work longer term. It's important to keep in mind Argentina has had 22 IMF deals since 1958, and none have restored macroeconomic stability on a long-term sustained basis. But I'm not as convinced as many of you are that Argentina didn't need the money. As I mentioned before, whether you run a large multi-national company or you run a country, you can't scramble at the 11th hour and try to come up with funding and I do believe Argentina needs the cushion. That's not to say that I'm right and you're wrong. Just that's my personal opinion having lived and worked in Argentina for nearly two decades.