Economy Hello Recession, Goodbye Inflation

[JhonMines]

A severe recession is about to hit Argentina; actually it has started but has not yet gained full steam, whereas inflation is going at full steam, but will come down dramatically, and soon. In the meantime, the question is: how can one benefit from these events?

Why do I anticipate a monster recession? The answer is simple: sky high interest rates. For comparison purposes, the US stock market has dropped dramatically in the last few days, mainly because interest rates have finally started to go up after a prolonged period of super low rates. The US ten year interest rate started the year a bit above 2% and it's now a tad higher than 3%. Inflation is running around 3%, so the real cost of money is zero. That is, inflation minus the interest rate is zero, and yet the stock market is taking a dive. Contrast that with Argentina. Inflation is, lets say 50%, but interest rates are at 70%, therefore the real cost of money is 20%. Such expensive money will demolishes consumer spending, business, and just about everyone else. What a recession is coming along!

Why will inflation drop dramatically? Because the recession will be so hard, that it will scare the daylights of anyone thinking of raising prices. No price rises, no inflation!

As an example, when the last deep recession hit the US, around 2008, I was managing several rental properties. People were losing homes, lines of credit were being cancelled, and financial fear was running very strong. I was fortunate not to lose tenants, but I did drop some rents, and for years did not dare ti raise them. I was too fearful of losing tenants, and too traumatized by the consequences of the 2008 recession. It's easy to assume that my example was generalized around the US economy, and therefore, the result was super low inflation after 2010 until last year, accompanied by sluggish but consistent economic growth.

Let's assume for a moment that I am absolutely right; that is, a monster recession will hit Argentina and inflation will come down drastically, and quickly. Who will get hurt, or more importantly, how does one make money from this? Great question and I invite forum members to give some great money making ideas and suggestions.

 

[CarinaMet]

It is just not the Argentine way to maintain or lower prices. Businesses will continue to raise prices even if their customers dwindle away. Inflation has been a fact of life here. You are right about the recession, obviously, but forget about inflation stabalizing.

 

[LuciaMax]

It is just not the Argentine way to maintain or lower prices. Businesses will continue to raise prices even if their customers dwindle away. Inflation has been a fact of life here. You are right about the recession, obviously, but forget about inflation stabalizing.

I am ready to invest in Argentina if it has a crash.

 

[PhelipCer]

I am ready to invest in Argentina if it has a crash.

Why not invest in Venezuela it has had a crash and prices have come down 80percent?

 

[earlyretirement]

Why not invest in Venezuela it has had a crash and prices have come down 80percent?

Because Venezuela for all intent and purposes is just not a desirable place like Buenos Aires is. And that's putting it politely. Some would call it a sh*thole. I've been to every country in South America and there is no place like Buenos Aires in South America. It just doesn't exist. Sure, there are special and unique cities but no place like Buenos Aires. Plus, we all know what is happening in Venezuela. That just won't happen in Buenos Aires.

I'd disagree with anyone that says property prices will go down as low as at the crash. It just will never happen again. That was a once in a lifetime chance to buy real estate that cheap in Buenos Aires. Am I saying it won't go lower? Absolutely not. It will as property prices are high now. But NO WAY will it go as low as in 2002.

 

[bwyonsea]

Well, prices went down in every crash.

 

[earlyretirement]

Well, prices went down in every crash.

Yes, naturally prices of real estate go down with every severe recession. Same no matter where in the world you go. All I'm saying is you won't see the per sq. meter prices you saw after the crash in Argentina. Just like you won't see the severe discounted prices after the fiasco with the meltdown in the USA. Those were once in a lifetime type situations where you could pick up premium real estate for artificially low prices.

I don't see real estate prices like that again in Buenos Aires. Like I said before, people really learned from that situation that the best thing to invest in Argentina is land and bricks. Absolutely if the economy gets worse than prices will fall though. I don't think anyone is disputing that.

 

[GerardX]

I still like the old neighborhood of Recoleta, you walk around those buildings in 40s/50s, you feel like you are in different time, you can live in the past. You get to enjoy the true Argentina. But the local young professionals prefer the new buildings in Palermo, the real estate value appreciates faster in the new buildings too. If you have an Argentine spouse, you probably like the new buildings that have more functions, and away from Recoleta. The longer the expats live in Argentina, the further they are from Recoleta.

Don't follow the point on expats and getting further from Recoleta? What do you mean?

 

[LuciaMax]

I still like the old neighborhood of Recoleta, you walk around those buildings in 40s/50s, you feel like you are in different time, you can live in the past. You get to enjoy the true Argentina. But the local young professionals prefer the new buildings in Palermo, the real estate value appreciates faster in the new buildings too. If you have an Argentine spouse, you probably like the new buildings that have more functions, and away from Recoleta. The longer the expats live in Argentina, the further they are from Recoleta.

Don't follow the point on expats and getting further from Recoleta? What do you mean?

the longer the expats live in buenos aires, they live in a true life of locals, Recoleta is not exotic anymore. They have more practical needs. They start to move outside of the center where the apartment/house has more functions(bigger), kids have to be in schools and Recoleta starts to feel too touristy. But if you are in and out of Argentina, Recoleta is still better I think.

 

[GerardX]

Thanks for the explanation/elucidation garrly. Speaking as a regular visitor I have never been taken with Recoleta as a place to live or even visit much, and like Palermo I avoid it as I come to see Argentinian people at work and play rather than watch tourists. Staying in the Almagro or Villa Crespo or Boedo is still central and safe, even tourist-friendly, but you do see more of the other side of life. That said, most portenos would probably avoid the villas around Retiro and Constitucion as a place to live even if it meant bigger housing? anyway, good to have your views.

 

[RinderHerts]

I have never met anyone who had a mortgage in Argentina. I know that short term, extremely high interest rate (30% plus) exist, but aside from commercial developers, I dont know anyone who has ever had one.

And people who criticize Recoleta usually have never been inside any of the really great 100 year old apartments there. 4 and 5 meter tall ceilings, frescos, relief plaster work, inlaid hardwood floors, marble, bronze, and stone. The quality of apartments available in Recoleta, if they were in Paris or London or NYC would be priced in the millions of dollars, most north of 10 million by far. Even the art deco Kavanaugh building has spaces that are just amazing, with huge outdoor patios, and views, and everything you could want a short walk away.
Surely, its not a barrio for everyone, and, by Argentine standards, its expensive. But for a reason. If you like older apartments and impeccable 19th century craftsmanship, Recoleta rivals anywhere on earth. Here is a good example. In any West Coast city in the USA, this amount of money gets you a 2 or 3 bedroom house that is nothing like this, this is a palace. https://toribioachaval.com/propieda...raguay-1100-en-recoleta-capital-federal-44705

 

[earlyretirement]

I have never met anyone who had a mortgage in Argentina. I know that short term, extremely high interest rate (30% plus) exist, but aside from commercial developers, I dont know anyone who has ever had one.

And people who criticize Recoleta usually have never been inside any of the really great 100 year old apartments there. 4 and 5 meter tall ceilings, frescos, relief plaster work, inlaid hardwood floors, marble, bronze, and stone. The quality of apartments available in Recoleta, if they were in Paris or London or NYC would be priced in the millions of dollars, most north of 10 million by far. Even the art deco Kavanaugh building has spaces that are just amazing, with huge outdoor patios, and views, and everything you could want a short walk away.
Surely, its not a barrio for everyone, and, by Argentine standards, its expensive. But for a reason. If you like older apartments and impeccable 19th century craftsmanship, Recoleta rivals anywhere on earth. Here is a good example. In any West Coast city in the USA, this amount of money gets you a 2 or 3 bedroom house that is nothing like this, this is a palace. https://toribioachaval.com/propieda...raguay-1100-en-recoleta-capital-federal-44705

Great post. Funny. I don't know anyone either in Buenos Aires personally with a mortgage. There seems to be a lot of talk on this board about all these people with mortgages in Buenos Aires. Here in the past few years they started mortgages but it's just relatively new and people had to have big down payments. But I don't know anyone that has a mortgage. Even relatively younger friends that I know in Buenos Aires or children of friends. They have waited until they had enough money to buy even if it was something relatively modest.

It's refreshing to see people with the actual concept to wait until they have enough money to buy something vs. other countries that are totally out of control with credit and borrowing.

And Ries is totally spot on target. Some of the architecture in Recoleta is just amazing. Some by French architects. You have to remember at the turn of the Century, Argentina's GDP was greater than Germany! Tremendous amounts of wealth and you can see it in the beautiful architecture. After the crash in 2002, I purchased an apartment in the Kavanaugh building. I sold it many years after buying it because I wasn't crazy about the area. But the building is beautiful.

I remember a British gentleman bought the penthouse unit and he told me he planned a massive renovation. I was excited to see the renovations. I remember him showing me after it was finished and I was SHOCKED to see what he did. Just God awful with neon red lights and disco style in the living room. Only an expat could turn a gorgeous apartment into something so horrible. Funny, reading your post Ries just reminded me of that.

 

[earlyretirement]

the longer the expats live in buenos aires, they live in a true life of locals, Recoleta is not exotic anymore. They have more practical needs. They start to move outside of the center where the apartment/house has more functions(bigger), kids have to be in schools and Recoleta starts to feel too touristy. But if you are in and out of Argentina, Recoleta is still better I think.

Well, I don't think locals really think of Recoleta as "exotic". I've had an apartment in Recoleta for almost 2 decades and I bought here for the same reasons that many locals did. It's an upscale, very central area that has all the conveniences that I need. It's safe, clean and a beautiful area. I didn't buy here because I thought it was "exotic" or touristy. Mainly because it was one the the finest neighborhoods in all of South America and most definitely always will be.

For the locals as well that have lived here for decades it is probably the same reason they live there. Actually Palermo is more "touristy" vs. Recoleta these days. I own properties there too and it's far more touristy there. I enjoy those neighborhoods as well but get tired of all the vandalism and graffiti there. Recoleta doesn't really get that at all.

Recoleta and Barrio Parque are two of the finest neighborhoods in the entire Continent that I've been in.

I love Recoleta today for the same reasons as when I first bought my property.

 

[LuciaMax]

Well, I don't think locals really think of Recoleta as "exotic". I've had an apartment in Recoleta for almost 2 decades and I bought here for the same reasons that many locals did. It's an upscale, very central area that has all the conveniences that I need. It's safe, clean and a beautiful area. I didn't buy here because I thought it was "exotic" or touristy. Mainly because it was one the the finest neighborhoods in all of South America and most definitely always will be.

For the locals as well that have lived here for decades it is probably the same reason they live there. Actually Palermo is more "touristy" vs. Recoleta these days. I own properties there too and it's far more touristy there. I enjoy those neighborhoods as well but get tired of all the vandalism and graffiti there. Recoleta doesn't really get that at all.

Recoleta and Barrio Parque are two of the finest neighborhoods in the entire Continent that I've been in.

I love Recoleta today for the same reasons as when I first bought my property.

Maybe more than 90% of the expats moved away after they first landed in Recoleta. Do not get me wrong, Recoleta is my neighborhood too. I started to visit Argentina from 2002, always stayed in Recoleta and bought an apt in Recoleta. The price of nice newer buildings in Palermo appreciated way faster than the old buildings in Recoleta in the past 10 years, average price per meter could be 2x of Recolta now. I have a friend who sold her tiny apartment (70m2 something) for 400k in a new buildings in Palermo and another local friend sold his bigger apt (140m2) in Recoleta for 550k, its a nice apartment in a nice part of Recoleta, with high ceilings and balcony, behind Pueyrredon (the island area). From the investment point of view, Recoleta is not the best option, from heart it is.

 

[earlyretirement]

Maybe more than 90% of the expats moved away after they first landed in Recoleta. Do not get me wrong, Recoleta is my neighborhood too. I started to visit Argentina from 2002, always stayed in Recoleta and bought an apt in Recoleta. The price of nice newer buildings in Palermo appreciated way faster than the old buildings in Recoleta in the past 10 years, average price per meter could be 2x of Recolta now. I have a friend who sold her tiny apartment (70m2 something) for 400k in a new buildings in Palermo and another local friend sold his bigger apt (140m2) in Recoleta for 550k, its a nice apartment in a nice part of Recoleta, with high ceilings and balcony, behind Pueyrredon (the island area). From the investment point of view, Recoleta is not the best option, from heart it is.

New construction in Palermo is definitely expensive. New construction is some of the most expensive in Buenos Aires. But most of it is cheaply constructed. Just not solid like they used to build in Recoleta. The new construction for the most part, although beautiful just has poor construction or you can hear your neighbors upstairs walking.

I bought a few new construction in Palermo Soho and Hollywood and while they do well with rentals they just are not solid. Even relatively new buildings built in the past 10 years which shouldn't have any problems still have many issues with leaks, problems with elevators, electrical issues, etc. Most of the older buildings in Recoleta were built like tanks to last forever.

It's like comparing apples and oranges though. Because the newer buildings in Palermo have several security guards, pools, gyms, saunas, big SUMs. That can and is desirable too but just a different type of style. La Isla has beautiful buildings as well although I really don't like that area over there.

 

[PhelipCer]

Great post. Funny. I don't know anyone either in Buenos Aires personally with a mortgage. There seems to be a lot of talk on this board about all these people with mortgages in Buenos Aires. Here in the past few years they started mortgages but it's just relatively new and people had to have big down payments. But I don't know anyone that has a mortgage. Even relatively younger friends that I know in Buenos Aires or children of friends. They have waited until they had enough money to buy even if it was something relatively modest.

It's refreshing to see people with the actual concept to wait until they have enough money to buy something vs. other countries that are totally out of control with credit and borrowing.

And Ries is totally spot on target. Some of the architecture in Recoleta is just amazing. Some by French architects. You have to remember at the turn of the Century, Argentina's GDP was greater than Germany! Tremendous amounts of wealth and you can see it in the beautiful architecture. After the crash in 2002, I purchased an apartment in the Kavanaugh building. I sold it many years after buying it because I wasn't crazy about the area. But the building is beautiful.

I remember a British gentleman bought the penthouse unit and he told me he planned a massive renovation. I was excited to see the renovations. I remember him showing me after it was finished and I was SHOCKED to see what he did. Just God awful with neon red lights and disco style in the living room. Only an expat could turn a gorgeous apartment into something so horrible. Funny, reading your post Ries just reminded me of that.

Very interesting this Early retirement . The english guy Lord Alain levenfiche in the Kavanagh building was very well known to most realtors as he got more desperate over the years to sell it . His original asking price was over 6 million dollars and he once had a excellent offer and he never accepted it holding out for a higher price .I know he dropped his price to 3 .7 million at the end . He is still trying to sell it . It has been for sale for at least 8 years and its still not sold I have been told .

Did you ever see tht very tacky you tube video of his as a english lord showing this gaudy property. There was a scene in there that made me cringe about how his bidet cleans up everything when you go to the toilet . It was the most funniest and tackiest property video I ever saw. I have tried to find it on youtube but he has taken it down now.

 

[earlyretirement]

Very interesting this Early retirement . The english guy Lord Alain levenfiche in the Kavanagh building was very well known to most realtors as he got more desperate over the years to sell it . His original asking price was over 6 million dollars and he once had a excellent offer and he never accepted it holding out for a higher price .I know he dropped his price to 3 .7 million at the end . He is still trying to sell it . It has been for sale for at least 8 years and its still not sold I have been told .

Did you ever see tht very tacky you tube video of his as a english lord showing this gaudy property. There was a scene in there that made me cringe about how his bidet cleans up everything when you go to the toilet . It was the most funniest and tackiest property video I ever saw. I have tried to find it on youtube but he has taken it down now.

Ah funny and interesting Perry! No, I didn't know anything about him. He didn't tell me he was a Lord. I just met him in the building when I was renovating my apartment there. I met him before he started the renovation and then once it was done. The reason he probably could never sell it was because he just ruined the property. I doubt anyone would buy it! Thanks for posting that video. I got a good laugh out of it. He was quite a character but now watching this video it all makes sense now. Ha, ha.

 

[earlyretirement]

did you ever tour the property? I just saw it that once when I met him in the lobby and he invited me to see it. I just looked online and found these photos - http://buenosairesstay.com/buenos-a...buidling-penthouse-piso-14-edificio-kavanagh/

It gives you a small idea how tacky and whacky it was. For perspective my apartment there I took great detail and refinished the beautiful original wood flooring. He literally put in cold and ugly white flooring with red neon disco lights under the flooring and green neon lighting near the bar area! Look at some of those photos and it even look like he toned things down because when I saw it..... it was much even decorated worse with gold blingy decor all over. It almost felt like I was being violated. And the scariest thing is he actually thought it looked good! That's how out of touch the guy was.

Don't get me wrong. He was very polite with me. A bit of the flamboyant type. He told me he spent a lot of time in Asia in another property that he owned. I can't say anything bad about the guy as I didn't know him at all or know anything about his background.

I still cringe when I think about what he did to that beautiful apartment and seeing these photos brings it all back. I apologize to the OP for going so off topic but couldn't help mentioning it thinking back of the memories of the building.