Politics Ignorance or bliss?

[RickPc]

Down south where we live, my wife and I were commenting on...

1. a lot of local small businesses are closing down
2. construction projects that have laid dormant for years are suddenly bustling with activity

One might infer from these indicators that there is so much inflation and government/employee meddling that people are closing down financially marginal operations ...and dumping their ready cash into bringing potential rental income properties lease-ready... as a means of preserving capitol/buying power.

There is a finite limit to the amounts precious metals and other purchasing power preservation tools available.

 

[bwyonsea]

Down south where we live, my wife and I were commenting on...

1. a lot of local small businesses are closing down
2. construction projects that have laid dormant for years are suddenly bustling with activity

One might infer from these indicators that there is so much inflation and government/employee meddling that people are closing down financially marginal operations ...and dumping their ready cash into bringing potential rental income properties lease-ready... as a means of preserving capitol/buying power.

There is a finite limit to the amounts precious metals and other purchasing power preservation tools available.

Very interesting.
In this country you can assert that we are in crisis when the constuction industry stops and the dollar rise. If prices are rising but the dollars stays at 4 pesos and constuction works there is no crisis.

Argentina is a place where people learnt to be very flexible in order to adapt and survive. So, long term busisness is not our way of thinking. People don´t close busisness because they are in bunkrupsy, they close them just in case and looks for something more profitable.
I started a busisness when I was a student regarding cultivating aquarium plants with artificial light. When the electricity multas began my busisness was profitable any way but I closed immediatly just in case. I did´t lose money. My competitors were very happy when I closed, they went into bankruptcy.

So, this is the year before elections. Former President K just die. Nobody know what the f...ck is going to happend. The US had created the crisis and they are doing stupid things that all the argentinians know that are going to fail because we are experts in crisis. In fact, we think that the US crisis is just starting. And this is standard here that the year before elections people spend less money and wait. Peron use to say "desmontar hasta que aclare" (Stop horse riding and wait until sunrise)

So, usually after elections the economy speed up. This is the way things works here.

Welcome to Argentina. Try to lear from us how to deal with the crisis. Whe have this expertise.

Last year I was running my former girlfriend busisness in NYC during the crisis. I started doing that because the first month she managed it she sold 40% comparing with the same month the year before (she used to sale 10, she sold 4). I managed in the argentinian way. All the other busisness around had the same issue. Crisis included I managed to get same profit that the year before with less sales of course because I did´t play with the wrong rules.

Live and learn.

Regards

 

[JaredDown]

10 months ago a 72 pack of huggies cost me 75 pesos at Disco (I checked my wife's meticulous baby journal)

Today, the same 72 pack cost me 178 pesos (same Disco)

I'm not a math major, but I'm pretty damn sure that is more than .7, 10, or even 30% increase.

 

[earlyretirement]

Definitely I don't think that most locals believe that Argentina isn't a crazy country and this inflation is out of control. I doubt that most people share Bajo's view of "This 27% inflation is normal, things are great, no problems, la la la".

But I will say the USA has their share of problems as well. This printing $600 Billion is a big deal when you consider it's on top of the previous huge piles of money. You can't just keep printing money and expect no repercussions.

It's part of the reason why the stock market is going up. Banks are paying such little interest rates that you have all this money chasing more money. But when you consider the unemployment rates in the USA it's much much higher than these fantasy 9.6% levels that the USA government is throwing out there.

So in this regard, the USA has some things in common with Argentina with these bogus #'s. It's still a mess there and the reason why the real estate market in the USA will probably sink another 10% to 15% before it's all said and done. Nice if you are on the sidelines waiting to swoop it up.

This is a good article from Bloomberg today:


Bernanke Defends Bond Purchases, Sees Stronger Growth

Nov. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke defended the central bank’s decision this week to buy an additional $600 billion in Treasuries, saying the unconventional policy will spur the U.S. recovery.

“We are showing insufficient stimulus,” Bernanke said today in remarks to college students in Jacksonville, Florida. Asset purchases have “the goal of reducing interest rates, providing more stimulus to the economy and, we hope, creating a faster recovery and an inflation rate consistent with long-run stability,” Bernanke said to students.

Bernanke came under fire today from officials in Germany, China, and Brazil, who said his plan to pump cash into the banking system may jar other economies and fail to fuel U.S. growth. Critics including Michael Burry, the former hedge-fund manager who predicted the housing market’s plunge, have said Fed policy is encouraging investors to take on too much risk and threatens to undermine the dollar.

“It’s our problem as well if the U.S. is no longer certain that the old recipes don’t work anymore,” German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said today in Berlin. The Fed’s injection of $600 billion was “clueless” and won’t revive growth, he said.

Brazil’s central bank president, Henrique Meirelles, said “excess liquidity” in the U.S. economy is creating “risks for everyone.” In China, Vice Foreign Minister Cui Tiankai said “many countries are worried about the impact of the policy on their economies.” He also said the U.S. “owes us some explanation on their decision on quantitative easing.”

Primary Goal

Bernanke, responding to a question on the impact of Fed policy on other nations, said its primary goal is to support the U.S. recovery.

“Our first objective, the first goal that we have, is to meet our mandate to get price stability and maximum employment in the United States,” he said. “A strong U.S. economy, a recovering economy, is critical not just for Americans but it’s also critical for the global recovery.”

Stocks capped their best week in two months, with the MSCI World Index and Standard & Poor’s 500 Index up more than 3.4 percent each, after the Fed pledged on Nov. 3 to buy as much as $600 billion of Treasuries through June to boost the economy.

Bernanke is trying to boost growth after near-zero interest rates and $1.7 trillion in securities purchases helped pull the economy out of recession without bringing down joblessness close to a 26-year high
An acceleration of U.S. economic growth would support the value of the U.S. dollar, Bernanke said today.

‘Best Fundamentals’

“The best fundamentals for the dollar will come when the economy is growing strongly,” Bernanke said today. “That is where the fundamentals come from. We are aware the dollar plays a special role in the global economy.”

The dollar advanced 1.1 percent to $1.4049 per euro at 3:08 p.m. in New York from $1.4207 yesterday, when it touched $1.4282, the weakest level since January.
Bernanke said additional easing will help the Fed achieve its two mandates set by Congress for ensuring full employment and stable prices.

“The unemployment rate, if at all, is coming down very, very slowly,” Bernanke told students at Jacksonville University. “Inflation is very, very low, probably below the level that is healthy for the economy in the longer term.”

Referring to the policy of so-called quantitative easing, Bernanke said, “we will be reviewing that regularly to see if it is working, to see how the outlook is changing.”

Asset Values

The Fed’s support for asset values isn’t helping the “real” economy, and is creating “dangerous signs of a potential free fall” in the dollar and will be unsustainable, Burry said in an interview.

Hedge-fund manager Barton Biggs is among those who defended Bernanke.

“We still are in a very precarious situation,” Biggs, the managing partner of New York-based Traxis Partners LLC and former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asset Management, said in an interview today on Bloomberg Television’s “In the Loop” with Betty Liu. “The economy could easily tip back into a double dip, and Bernanke did what he had to do.”
The U.S. added 151,000 jobs last month, Labor Department figures showed today, exceeding all forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. Private payrolls that exclude government agencies also gained more than forecast, while the jobless rate held at 9.6 percent.

Commodities Prices

Asked by a student if “skyrocketing” commodities prices may threaten his inflation outlook, Bernanke said rising commodities prices are “the one exception” to a broad reduction in inflationary pressures. Overall, excess slack in the economy will make it difficult for producers to push through higher prices to consumers, he said.

“Emerging markets are growing quite quickly,” Bernanke said. “Demand for those commodities is pretty strong. That is going to be a contributor to inflation in the U.S. because it will affect gas prices, for example, and so on.”

Asked by a student about rising gold prices and concerns over inflation, Bernanke said the Fed wouldn’t sacrifice price stability in an attempt to boost growth.
“Let me be very clear: We are absolutely committed to keeping inflation low and stable,” he said. “We have the tools to unwind and tighten policy at the appropriate time. We will honor both sides of our dual mandate.”