Is the Expat party in Buenos Aires coming to an end?

[earlyretirement]

What do all you expats think? What will be the likely consequences for all the Expats in Argentina? IMHO, dollarization won't happen for a while if at all. I've always said that I don't believe this can happen for a while since there is a serious question where the tens of billions of dollars would come from.

Milei would need to resolve the peso bond debt (Leliqs issue) before any dollarization attempt could happen.

I was one of the few that predicted a Milei massacre at the polls. I correctly predicted for months that he would easily win. I was very vocal on my Twitter account for the past 2 months that this was the outcome that would happen. My company spent a lot of money polling and the morning of the election we predicted 54% to 46% win. - https://x.com/BuySellBA/status/1726267821683036602?s=20. We were only off 2% from actual results.

It's very clear that investors around the world and ALL the local CEO's (including yours truly) are celebrating a Milei victory! The mood is very optimistic and look at all the stocks in Argentina traded way up today.

I was the largest buyer of residential real estate in Buenos Aires after the corralito in 2002 for about 11 years running - https://buysellba.com/news-/-media?blogcategory=ApartmentsBA

I sold my company at the right time in 2010. See the historical chart below of a history of Argentina's fiscal budget. I entered in 2002 and I exited in 2010. I kept ALL of my properties even after I sold my company to Luxury Retreats. Luxury Retreats ran the company into the ground and they even tried stealing funds from me. I caught them on my personal property that I owned in Palermo Hollywood where they claimed they changed out a door lock in an "emergency door lock" and I sent my mother in law and she confirmed the old key still worked. I'm writing an autobiography and I'm including about that. But still Airbnb bought Luxury Retreats in 2017 for almost $300 Million US dollars.

I've seen expats move out of Argentina once it got expensive again and I don't expect this will be any different in a few years. Most expats don't have 2 nickels to rub together and have a low net worth. Most do NOT buy real estate and are renting. The Airbnb prices have already shot up and are expensive and I believe they will go higher as tourism increases. I sold 95% of my properties and that of my investor clients in 2018/2019 at the absolute peak of the market.

Now I'm buying massive amounts of real estate at the bottom again starting 2 months ago. Expats should enjoy a cheap Buenos Aires and Argentina while they can. Just like we saw a massive exodus of expats before when it got expensive. You'll see the same thing again. The ones that will stay are the smart ones that bought real estate and own. If you own property in Buenos Aires, you can live there affordably. Rent is the #1 biggest expense. Once you have a paid off place, even if it gets more expensive you're going to be sitting pretty.

Smart expats are those that are buying today at cheap prices. But as I mentioned, most expats are poor with a low net worth.

I have a lot of local wealthy friends that earn in US dollars and they would have preferred for Massa and their ilk to have stayed in power. Why? Because the worse the economy is the better off they are. I strongly disagreed with them. I love Argentina and even though I'd benefit having US dollars and making US dollars what good is being wealthy while "Buenos Aires is burning"? I'd rather have local stability than expats being able to afford a cheap steak.

I long for the days when Argentina was one of the wealthiest countries in the world. I know I'll never see it in my lifetime but I pray my kids or grandkids will someday see it. Javier Milei sets Argentina on the right track for that.

 

[Canada Goose]

I sure hope the party hasn't ended! I'm Canadian and just came to Buenos Aires on November 2 and I'm already in love with the city! I've extended my trip 2 times. I don't want to go back to Canada!

It's so affordable here. The restaurants are amazing. I'm seriously thinking about buying a property here. I looked at how much it would cost to buy something like the Airbnb I am staying in and I was shocked with how affordable it is.

 

[BuySellBA]

Canada Goose,

We are glad you love Buenos Aires. There is NO city like it in the world! Please take time to give back and share some of your favorite places to eat. You can post about them in the Food and Drink section. Give back to the community.
Buenos Aires real estate is VERY cheap now. It has fallen about 4.5 years in a row but it's going to skyrocket. You can read some of our posts on Twitter at: https://twitter.com/BuySellBA

Also, if you're serious about buying real estate go to our FREE information on our website that is the BEST source of buying real estate as a non-resident foreigner - https://buysellba.com/step-by-step-guide-to-buy

If you get serious about buying, contact our office and you can set up an initial consultation.

BuySellBA

 

[Canada Goose]

Canada Goose,

We are glad you love Buenos Aires. There is NO city like it in the world! Please take time to give back and share some of your favorite places to eat. You can post about them in the Food and Drink section. Give back to the community.
Buenos Aires real estate is VERY cheap now. It has fallen about 4.5 years in a row but it's going to skyrocket. You can read some of our posts on Twitter at: https://twitter.com/BuySellBA

Also, if you're serious about buying real estate go to our FREE information on our website that is the BEST source of buying real estate as a non-resident foreigner - https://buysellba.com/step-by-step-guide-to-buy

If you get serious about buying, contact our office and you can set up an initial consultation.

BuySellBA

OK thanks Buysellba!

I am staying here in Palermo Soho for the past few weeks. The first beer is on me if you want to get together. Yes, I just found your website. Funny as another expat told me about this website and also about your website so I already started reading some things on it. I will post some restaurant reviews and also will post a trip report. I am heading to Iguazu Falls tomorrow but then coming back.

Do you have any other advice for me if I am interested in moving here? Do you have any contacts to immigration attorneys or I would appreciate any advice you may have. Thanks again.

 

[BuySellBA]

OK thanks Buysellba!

I am staying here in Palermo Soho for the past few weeks. The first beer is on me if you want to get together. Yes, I just found your website. Funny as another expat told me about this website and also about your website so I already started reading some things on it. I will post some restaurant reviews and also will post a trip report. I am heading to Iguazu Falls tomorrow but then coming back.

Do you have any other advice for me if I am interested in moving here? Do you have any contacts to immigration attorneys or I would appreciate any advice you may have. Thanks again.

Thanks for the offer to meet up. You can schedule an initial consultation and then we can meet up after that. Great you already heard about my website. We were the largest buyers of residential real estate after the last financial crash - corralito after 2002. We owned the largest property management company in Argentina - ApartmentsBA. Luxury Retreats bought us in 2010 and then Airbnb bought them in 2017 for almost $300 million. So we know a thing or two about real estate.

On immigration matters, I used Lorena at ARCA - https://argentinaresidency.com/who-we-are-&-testimonials 21 years ago. They are good people. I've been a permanent resident in Argentina for over 20 years. You will love living in Buenos Aires. I find Canada to be dumpy in most cities. And you have horrible leadership with your elected officials.

I would also recommend you subscribe to this website. It's the BEST source of all things Argentina. Mara knows his stuff - https://www.bowtiedmara.io/

Cheers.

 

[Rob Smith]

I sure hope the party hasn't ended! I'm Canadian and just came to Buenos Aires on November 2 and I'm already in love with the city! I've extended my trip 2 times. I don't want to go back to Canada!

It's so affordable here. The restaurants are amazing. I'm seriously thinking about buying a property here. I looked at how much it would cost to buy something like the Airbnb I am staying in and I was shocked with how affordable it is.

Thanks for the offer to meet up. You can schedule an initial consultation and then we can meet up after that. Great you already heard about my website. We were the largest buyers of residential real estate after the last financial crash - corralito after 2002. We owned the largest property management company in Argentina - ApartmentsBA. Luxury Retreats bought us in 2010 and then Airbnb bought them in 2017 for almost $300 million. So we know a thing or two about real estate.

On immigration matters, I used Lorena at ARCA - https://argentinaresidency.com/who-we-are-&-testimonials 21 years ago. They are good people. I've been a permanent resident in Argentina for over 20 years. You will love living in Buenos Aires. I find Canada to be dumpy in most cities. And you have horrible leadership with your elected officials.

I would also recommend you subscribe to this website. It's the BEST source of all things Argentina. Mara knows his stuff - https://www.bowtiedmara.io/

Cheers.

Canada Goose - I just sent you a PM. I am also from Canada. I arrived a few weeks ago and I am in town another 9 days. Let me know if you would like to meet up. I am not far. I am staying in Palermo Hollywood. I agree with you the restaurants are amazing and dirt cheap!

BuySellBA - I agree with you about most of Canada with the exception of my hometown of Vancouver which is very beautiful but is too expensive now. I am getting ready to sell my condo. I also might be interested in moving to Argentina. I will also read your website. This is a great forum by the way.

 

[BuySellBA]

Canada Goose - I just sent you a PM. I am also from Canada. I arrived a few weeks ago and I am in town another 9 days. Let me know if you would like to meet up. I am not far. I am staying in Palermo Hollywood. I agree with you the restaurants are amazing and dirt cheap!

BuySellBA - I agree with you about most of Canada with the exception of my hometown of Vancouver which is very beautiful but is too expensive now. I am getting ready to sell my condo. I also might be interested in moving to Argentina. I will also read your website. This is a great forum by the way.

Hi Rob Smith,

Thanks for agreeing about Canada. I'm not saying all of it is dumpy. Definitely, you have a beautiful country. Especially where you live. I agree Vancouver is very beautiful. That's probably my favorite city in Canada. I spent a lot of winters skiing up at Lake Louis and Banff and it's gorgeous there. But I find cities like Toronto to be totally overrated. They have a good food scene but I don't find the city too cool or beautiful. There is always traffic construction going on. The weather is horrible. Housing is too expensive for what you get. I had an office up there for 2 years and there would be snow or freezing cold from early October to March. No thanks!

You are very wise to sell your property in Vancouver to look to Argentina. Argentina has many beautiful cities all throughout the country if you're not a big city person. The South in Bariloche and Villa la Angostura are beautiful. Honestly, all of Argentina is splendid.

Have a great rest of your trip. I hope you can connect up with Canada Goose.

 

[Canada Goose]

I agree that many cities in Canada are overrated. Besides a few neighborhoods of Toronto, much of it is kind of ghetto. Absolutely correct about poor leadership and politicians. I used to be proud to be Canadian but now it's a little embarrassing. I agree Vancouver is beautiful but it's too expensive for most people now. I am heading to Iguazu Falls and then Mendoza to visit wine country. Argentina seems too good to be true.

Rob Smith - I will ping you via DM and I am happy to buy the first round of drinks.

 

[sergio]

Dollarisation will take time if Congress even allows it. If he can follow through with his core plans the situation will stabilise with what will surely be higher prices including higher wages. In this sense Argentina would be a more predicatble and secure country but the social ienquality that the current system and leaders have engendered will dimnish. That will be a disadvantage for those currently with dollars who enjoy the high life as evidenced by the frequent discussions here about which high end parrilla is best.


True that many left when it got more expensive. There was a period when prices in dollar terms rose then later it reversed. Now it's cheap again and has been attracting people looking for a low COL. This has been going on for a number of years but is likely to change. I would expect a second exodus of expats.

 

[Rob Smith]

The probability of Congress rejecting dollarization is high. The current system benefits not only expats but also government officials and corporations, making Milei's success in this endeavor highly uncertain. Achieving dollarization would require Argentina to secure a substantial amount of borrowing and adhere to a level of fiscal discipline that is currently lacking. Considering the likely impact of inflation on major world economies, our party may experience a decline. The prevailing global dynamics appear to be working against Milei's objectives.

Dollarization won't happen any time soon. Maybe in year 2? Without providing a time frame estimate it's just total guesses and in the meantime the exchange gap will be wider.

 

[Che Vos]

I believed the expat party had concluded around 2012. The years after the coralito were bustling with backpackers, crustpunks, couch surfers, and optimistic dreamers. I recall the artistic couple garnering international press for their eclectic high-rise apartment, frequent gatherings with newcomers who had invested in $35,000 apartments in Palermo, the presence of global graffiti artists, and more. However, all of that has disappeared, now a memory from fifteen years ago.

 

[Rick]

There is the monumental issue of $23+ billion in outstanding leliqs. Milei is making vague statements about international funds, but no details. Borrowing $25 billion in US dollars is a move from the Macri playbook and look how that worked out.

Maybe he is going to sell Patagonia or something. Argentina has wide swaths of land that are valuable. There are laws against foreigners buying them but something tells me that will all be changed.

 

[All the Answers]

Ex president, Alberto Fernández let China build a military base in Patagonia (https://www.bowtiedmara.io/p/argent...d?utm_source=/search/china&utm_medium=reader2) In exchange for desperately needed cash.

Maybe Javier Milei will allow the USA own their own military base in return for some much needed cash. Trump will have a big new important ally in South America. A win/win?

I don't see any good options for resolving the leliqs.

 

[sergio]

I believed the expat party had concluded around 2012. The years after the coralito were bustling with backpackers, crustpunks, couch surfers, and optimistic dreamers. I recall the artistic couple garnering international press for their eclectic high-rise apartment, frequent gatherings with newcomers who had invested in $35,000 apartments in Palermo, the presence of global graffiti artists, and more. However, all of that has disappeared, now a memory from fifteen years ago.

It is true that many ex-pats left when it got more expensive. There was a period when prices in dollar terms rose then later it reversed. Now it's cheap again and has been attracting people looking for a lower cost of living. This has been going on for a number of years but is likely to change. I would expect a second exodus of expats which isn't necessarily a bad thing.

 

[Che Vos]

I would rather my fellow Porteños and Argentines have some stability and calm period and a true future vs. expats having a great time and eating cheap steaks. I am prepared to accept short term pain and a hit to my buying power in exchange for a chance of having a country that has an actual future. I love my country and really would prefer to stay in it vs. having to be forced to move like many of my friends and family.

 

[Billy Goat]

Dollarisation will take time if Congress even allows it. If he can follow through with his core plans the situation will stabilise with what will surely be higher prices including higher wages. In this sense Argentina would be a more predicatble and secure country but the social ienquality that the current system and leaders have engendered will dimnish. That will be a disadvantage for those currently with dollars who enjoy the high life as evidenced by the frequent discussions here about which high end parrilla is best.


True that many left when it got more expensive. There was a period when prices in dollar terms rose then later it reversed. Now it's cheap again and has been attracting people looking for a low COL. This has been going on for a number of years but is likely to change. I would expect a second exodus of expats.

Let's see where to begin? Sergio stated, "In this sense, Argentina would be a more predictable and secure country BUT the social inequality that the current system and leaders have engendered will diminish." I won't necessarily endorse your statement, but I question the use of "but" as if reducing social inequality contradicts having a more secure country. I assume you meant to say AND instead of BUT.

I fail to see how eliminating free healthcare and education will reduce social inequality. Privatizing Aerolineas Argentina and YPF might bring in a quick influx of money but could have detrimental long-term effects. It sounds reminiscent of Carlos Menem 2.0 to me.

I also take issue with the notion that a majority of expats with Euros or Dollars find pleasure or comfort in witnessing their adopted country suffer from catastrophic inflation, to the detriment of its people, infrastructure, future, and stability. Personally, I feel disheartened when the Peso experiences fluctuations, not only because I understand the hardship it imposes on Argentinians but also because it is detrimental to those of us intending to stay here permanently.

To illustrate, I purchased my house for $110,000 US dollars 4-5 years ago when the peso was at 18P to 1USD, totaling 1,980,000 pesos. In today's rates at 900P to 1USD (dolar blue, obviously), the house would cost 99,000,000P. This is just for reference; no one buys houses in pesos, and no one would pay me $110,000 for my house even though it has significantly appreciated. A high Dollar Blue rate may benefit tourists, but it's unfavorable for expats and always detrimental to Argentina.

 

[sergio]

Let's see where to begin? Sergio stated, "In this sense, Argentina would be a more predictable and secure country BUT the social inequality that the current system and leaders have engendered will diminish." I won't necessarily endorse your statement, but I question the use of "but" as if reducing social inequality contradicts having a more secure country. I assume you meant to say AND instead of BUT.

I fail to see how eliminating free healthcare and education will reduce social inequality. Privatizing Aerolineas Argentina and YPF might bring in a quick influx of money but could have detrimental long-term effects. It sounds reminiscent of Carlos Menem 2.0 to me.

I also take issue with the notion that a majority of expats with Euros or Dollars find pleasure or comfort in witnessing their adopted country suffer from catastrophic inflation, to the detriment of its people, infrastructure, future, and stability. Personally, I feel disheartened when the Peso experiences fluctuations, not only because I understand the hardship it imposes on Argentinians but also because it is detrimental to those of us intending to stay here permanently.

To illustrate, I purchased my house for $110,000 US dollars 4-5 years ago when the peso was at 18P to 1USD, totaling 1,980,000 pesos. In today's rates at 900P to 1USD (dolar blue, obviously), the house would cost 99,000,000P. This is just for reference; no one buys houses in pesos, and no one would pay me $110,000 for my house even though it has significantly appreciated. A high Dollar Blue rate may benefit tourists, but it's unfavorable for expats and always detrimental to Argentina.

Perhaps my message wasn't clear. The existing system has resulted in a substantial rise in poverty and increased social inequality. The critical question is how to navigate out of this crisis. The continuous printing of pesos, with some distributed as subsidies to the masses, has proven ineffective. Milei's proposal revolves around fostering a more business-friendly environment, enhancing productivity, and enabling success within a free-market system.

Regarding hospitals, Milei has clarified that he doesn't aim to abolish public hospitals but rather seeks to reform the system for improvement. Many, likely the majority, of expats opting for private care underscores the desire to avoid dependence on an inferior public system—although it may be acceptable in Buenos Aires, it is notably worse in the provinces. Education also requires reform, as there's no justification for affluent individuals to receive free university education.

I can't directly address your property value concerns, except to note that the economic crisis has led to a decline in prices and a generally stagnant market. The superficiality of certain threads, like debating the best steakhouse, appears somewhat reminiscent of a Marie Antoinette situation, given the broader challenges most people are facing. I did not single you out, nor was it my intention to do so.

 

[Man on the Moon]

Have you encountered anything resembling a concrete plan? It appears that Milei merely believes eliminating government intervention in the economy and other sectors will miraculously lead to improvement.

Moreover, wasn't Macri also aiming to establish a more business-friendly environment? We're all too familiar with the outcome of that narrative.

 

[Billy Goat]

Hey Sergio,

There's no denying that Argentina is in need of change, and I agree that the concept of universally free education can be debated, although many see it as a fundamental right. I'm not here to defend every aspect of Argentine society; there are many aspects, such as the treatment of young adults and children, that I find problematic and contributing to the country's dysfunction. I believe there's a lack of personal responsibility ingrained in Argentine culture that fuels this dysfunction. However, I'm struggling to find anything in Milei's impassioned speeches that convinces me he's the right person to bring about positive change. How many times have I heard "Puta" from that guy?

On the topic of hospitals, my wife works for a hospital that Milei said he intends to shut down. Milei mentioned his intention shut it down which alarms her and her friends, many of whom are doctors or medical technicians. They strongly assert that public hospitals in Argentina are generally better than private ones. While acknowledging the varying levels of quality among both public and private institutions, they argue that, on the whole, public hospitals outperform private ones.

Lastly, discussions about restaurants and food are just that—discussions about personal preferences. If it's not your cup of tea, why bother reading them? I don't follow those threads because I'm in another city and don't have the option to enjoy the restaurants they discuss. I'm not trying to give you a hard time; my initial reaction was to the idea that many expats might benefit from the peso's rise with inflation. Personally, I'm not pleased about it.

 

[sergio]

Have you encountered anything resembling a concrete plan? It appears that Milei merely believes eliminating government intervention in the economy and other sectors will miraculously lead to improvement.

Moreover, wasn't Macri also aiming to establish a more business-friendly environment? We're all too familiar with the outcome of that narrative.

Let's see how this plays out. Ex President Macri didn't have Milei's boldness or determination. He was cut from a different cloth. Anyway what do you want to see? More of the same Kircherismo?