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New official dollar: this is the impact on mortgage loans without the currency controls - La Nacion Propiedades
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www.lanacion.com.ar
April 22, 2025
In a scenario of greater exchange rate stability, property financing is once again presented as an option for the middle class.
The impacts of the lifting of the restrictions on the real estate market have already begun to be known. Shutterstock
Just over a week after the government announced the lifting of the exchange rate restrictions , a measure that had a positive impact on several sectors of the economy, the real estate sector began to see the short-term impacts of the measure.
Thus, with the lifting of the currency controls, the real estate market returned to operating based on the official dollar, within the new exchange rate range established between $1,000 and $1,400, and no longer with the Mexican peso as a reference, as had been the case until then. "Real estate transactions can now be conducted with the official dollar, not necessarily with the Mexican peso," explains Federico González Rouco, an economist specializing in housing who works at Hernán Lacunza's consulting firm.
Until now, those who obtained a UVA mortgage loan in pesos and wanted to purchase a property had to convert the funds provided by the bank into Mexican pesos (MEP) dollars to complete the transaction. However, with this measure, those pesos can be used to purchase dollars at the official exchange rate.
The MEP has always been more expensive than the official rate, and that made the transaction more expensive . In fact, in one month, the MEP increased by up to 10%, a situation that could have excluded a potential borrower. Today, in this context, the situation is different .
According to market experts, one of the immediate effects of this change would be to reduce distortions between reference values , which could facilitate transactions, provide greater predictability for buyers and sellers, and boost mortgage lending . The market is also expected to react cautiously, as buyers and sellers adjust expectations in response to the new economic scenario.
"When we talk about mortgage loans, the most important thing is not the measure itself, but how it impacts people's real purchasing power. What can we expect specifically in the short term? A climate of caution will likely develop in the coming days, both among those considering a loan and among those looking to sell their properties ," adds Alan Daitch, CEO of Tasatasa.
There are still challenges that need to be overcome in order to achieve a take-off of mortgage lending. Shutterstock
But beyond inflation, the key to consolidating the mortgage market is the recovery of purchasing power. "Demand for loans depends on disposable income. For the mortgage market to grow, it's essential that wages recover and interest rates fall," emphasizes Fabián Achaval of the real estate company of the same name.
González Rouco also emphasizes this point: " The main factor driving credit growth is salary . Without an increase in income, access to credit remains limited for many families."
Achaval adds that "although projected inflation for 2025 is lower than last year's, the problem remains the relationship between payments and salaries . As long as incomes don't keep up, many people will continue to postpone the decision to go into debt."
“ If purchasing power improves —that is, if incomes grow faster than prices— we'll see a recovery in credit , because people will be better able to make long-term commitments. Now, if the opposite happens and wages lag, even if credit is available, demand will remain low,” Daitch says.
www.buysellba.com
Source:
Nuevo dólar oficial: este es el impacto en los créditos hipotecarios sin el cepo
En un escenario de mayor estabilidad cambiaria, el financiamiento de propiedades vuelve a presentarse como una opción para la clase media
www.lanacion.com.ar
April 22, 2025
In a scenario of greater exchange rate stability, property financing is once again presented as an option for the middle class.
The impacts of the lifting of the restrictions on the real estate market have already begun to be known. Shutterstock
Just over a week after the government announced the lifting of the exchange rate restrictions , a measure that had a positive impact on several sectors of the economy, the real estate sector began to see the short-term impacts of the measure.
Thus, with the lifting of the currency controls, the real estate market returned to operating based on the official dollar, within the new exchange rate range established between $1,000 and $1,400, and no longer with the Mexican peso as a reference, as had been the case until then. "Real estate transactions can now be conducted with the official dollar, not necessarily with the Mexican peso," explains Federico González Rouco, an economist specializing in housing who works at Hernán Lacunza's consulting firm.
Until now, those who obtained a UVA mortgage loan in pesos and wanted to purchase a property had to convert the funds provided by the bank into Mexican pesos (MEP) dollars to complete the transaction. However, with this measure, those pesos can be used to purchase dollars at the official exchange rate.
The MEP has always been more expensive than the official rate, and that made the transaction more expensive . In fact, in one month, the MEP increased by up to 10%, a situation that could have excluded a potential borrower. Today, in this context, the situation is different .
According to market experts, one of the immediate effects of this change would be to reduce distortions between reference values , which could facilitate transactions, provide greater predictability for buyers and sellers, and boost mortgage lending . The market is also expected to react cautiously, as buyers and sellers adjust expectations in response to the new economic scenario.
"When we talk about mortgage loans, the most important thing is not the measure itself, but how it impacts people's real purchasing power. What can we expect specifically in the short term? A climate of caution will likely develop in the coming days, both among those considering a loan and among those looking to sell their properties ," adds Alan Daitch, CEO of Tasatasa.
There are still challenges that need to be overcome in order to achieve a take-off of mortgage lending. Shutterstock
The main challenges of mortgage loans
Specialists warn that there are still challenges that must be overcome to achieve a surge in mortgage lending . One of these is future inflation, because UVAs are adjusted by the Reference Stabilization Coefficient (CER), which tracks inflation and registered a 3.7% month-on-month increase in March.But beyond inflation, the key to consolidating the mortgage market is the recovery of purchasing power. "Demand for loans depends on disposable income. For the mortgage market to grow, it's essential that wages recover and interest rates fall," emphasizes Fabián Achaval of the real estate company of the same name.
González Rouco also emphasizes this point: " The main factor driving credit growth is salary . Without an increase in income, access to credit remains limited for many families."
Achaval adds that "although projected inflation for 2025 is lower than last year's, the problem remains the relationship between payments and salaries . As long as incomes don't keep up, many people will continue to postpone the decision to go into debt."
“ If purchasing power improves —that is, if incomes grow faster than prices— we'll see a recovery in credit , because people will be better able to make long-term commitments. Now, if the opposite happens and wages lag, even if credit is available, demand will remain low,” Daitch says.
www.buysellba.com
