The Hedge-Fund Trade of the Year: Betting on Argentina’s Chain-Saw-Wielding President - WSJ

[earlyretirement]

Great article talking about all the investors that are making a fortune betting on Argentina. I was one of the ones telling everyone and their brother to bet on Argentina last year once Milei won the election. Gave the argument why it would be a new gold rush and playing out as forecasted.

Many investors are making an absolute fortune. 2024 was the start of the turn around and it was very painful but it will start getting easier as the economy improves.

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/argentina-economy-stock-index-growth-milei-51b6253f

Achived version

 

[Vince]

Great article talking about all the investors that are making a fortune betting on Argentina. I was one of the ones telling everyone and their brother to bet on Argentina last year once Milei won the election. Gave the argument why it would be a new gold rush and playing out as forecasted.

Many investors are making an absolute fortune. 2024 was the start of the turn around and it was very painful but it will start getting easier as the economy improves.

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/argentina-economy-stock-index-growth-milei-51b6253f

Achived version

Yeah you nailed it. I had my doubts but remarkable what Milei has done for Argentina so far. My investment portfolio has exploded on Argy stocks the past year. Even my sister just bought a place in Buenos Aires. That has to be the ultimate bullish sign.

 

[Wally]

I should have jumped into YPF earlier. All my oil and gas friends told me a few years ago it was beaten down so low and would have explosive growth. I did jump in earlier this year and up big. I wish I put more money in it but I was too chicken.

 

[Betsy Ross]

Great article talking about all the investors that are making a fortune betting on Argentina. I was one of the ones telling everyone and their brother to bet on Argentina last year once Milei won the election. Gave the argument why it would be a new gold rush and playing out as forecasted.

Many investors are making an absolute fortune. 2024 was the start of the turn around and it was very painful but it will start getting easier as the economy improves.

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/argentina-economy-stock-index-growth-milei-51b6253f

Achived version

It is crazy to see Argentine stocks soaring so high. I've lived here for years and my family never so much as mentioned what was going on here. Now my brother and sister always are asking about Argentina. They always see it in the news.

I still think there are a lot of issues to deal with but crazy what a turn around. Saw this today on X and laughed. Deputies are scared to even spend their allotted budgets! Never would see anything like this before.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1872454235914449200

 

[Vero]

Great article talking about all the investors that are making a fortune betting on Argentina. I was one of the ones telling everyone and their brother to bet on Argentina last year once Milei won the election. Gave the argument why it would be a new gold rush and playing out as forecasted.

Many investors are making an absolute fortune. 2024 was the start of the turn around and it was very painful but it will start getting easier as the economy improves.

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/argentina-economy-stock-index-growth-milei-51b6253f

Achived version

My son in law kept telling me to buy some local banking and oil and gas stocks. I didn't listen. It is difficult for locals to trust in local companies. We always think the government will sabotage them with bad laws or taxes. Unfortunately I did not jump in and feel like it is too late now watching some companies go up already 150% in one year. I think maybe it is too late?

 

[Digital Nomad]

It is crazy to see Argentine stocks soaring so high. I've lived here for years and my family never so much as mentioned what was going on here. Now my brother and sister always are asking about Argentina. They always see it in the news.

I still think there are a lot of issues to deal with but crazy what a turn around. Saw this today on X and laughed. Deputies are scared to even spend their allotted budgets! Never would see anything like this before.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1872454235914449200

🤣🤣🤣🤣 That is hilarious! Can you imagine in the past?! They would have blown through all of that money. Now people are scared to be fired if they do anything that is considered wasteful. They are watching every dollar that goes out the door. My girlfriend has a few relatives that work in the government and they said that they are looking at every single expense and they have to justify if it was really needed or not.

My son in law kept telling me to buy some local banking and oil and gas stocks. I didn't listen. It is difficult for locals to trust in local companies. We always think the government will sabotage them with bad laws or taxes. Unfortunately I did not jump in and feel like it is too late now watching some companies go up already 150% in one year. I think maybe it is too late?

I am not sure if it is too late. I bought some oil stocks and they are up and continue to go up every day. My Novia's dad said the upwards trajectory just depends on a continuation of good governance and also the IMF doing a restructured package and giving some more money. But he said the oil and gas sector are going to skyrocket because of RIGI billions of dollars are already coming in and no matter what happens things will go up since they were so badly beaten down.

I put some of my 401K money into ARGT. I'm also going to buy an apartment in 2025 in BA.

 

[Avocado]

Even if Milei is doing bad with some things and making life miserable for the poor and middle class I am happy to see foreign investment and stock market go up. But the poor people don't really get helped by all of the rich making money but I pray foreign investment pick up here.

 

[Larry]

Even if Milei is doing bad with some things and making life miserable for the poor and middle class I am happy to see foreign investment and stock market go up. But the poor people don't really get helped by all of the rich making money but I pray foreign investment pick up here.

Milei is the world's greatest showman. I will say that for him.

 

[CraigM]

Even if Milei is doing bad with some things and making life miserable for the poor and middle class I am happy to see foreign investment and stock market go up. But the poor people don't really get helped by all of the rich making money but I pray foreign investment pick up here.

That is unfortunately the way of things - those with capital benefit the most early on from buying these cheap assets. But all the things Milei is doing are necessary to attract foreign investment which will create jobs (real ones) and if Argentinians continue to vote for this path it will create lasting change in the lives of every citizen that is willing to work for a living. My guess though is that at some point citizens will decide that things are "good enough" and vote for the next socialist leader promising all sorts of goodies, and the cycle starts over. I'm not a pessimist it's just the nature of socialist countries.

 

[Finance Prof]

That is unfortunately the way of things - those with capital benefit the most early on from buying these cheap assets. But all the things Milei is doing are necessary to attract foreign investment which will create jobs (real ones) and if Argentinians continue to vote for this path it will create lasting change in the lives of every citizen that is willing to work for a living. My guess though is that at some point citizens will decide that things are "good enough" and vote for the next socialist leader promising all sorts of goodies, and the cycle starts over. I'm not a pessimist it's just the nature of socialist countries.

True. But this is like this anywhere in the world with the rich getting richer and the poor either staying the same level or getting poorer. I like the changes in Argentina but so far with the 50% split it is the wealthy that are approving and the poor and middle class that are mostly the ones that aren't approving. I think that eventually if things don't improve even quicker the approval ratings will go down. My hunch is that you are correct @CraigM. It is very difficult for people under socialism that had everything handed to them free go to a new system where they have to pay their fair share and work. And even the rich have all their savings in dollars so they benefit more when the country goes to sh*t. So even many of them are starting to complain about a peso that is too strong.

 

[Larry]

That is unfortunately the way of things - those with capital benefit the most early on from buying these cheap assets. But all the things Milei is doing are necessary to attract foreign investment which will create jobs (real ones) and if Argentinians continue to vote for this path it will create lasting change in the lives of every citizen that is willing to work for a living. My guess though is that at some point citizens will decide that things are "good enough" and vote for the next socialist leader promising all sorts of goodies, and the cycle starts over. I'm not a pessimist it's just the nature of socialist countries.

You are realistic. That is rare to find from a Milei supporter. Most are not grounded in any reality. The rich bought all the stock and you know it is dangerous because I am talking to some rather poor or middle class now that want to jump into bonds or other stocks that have never done it before in their life but they are hearing people talk about it. You know when this is too late. Many will jump in at higher prices and probably lose money they can't afford to lose.

Now I am hearing from people that own businesses that are going out of business. The blue dollar is starting to go up. Companies are getting out of carry trade like Toyota did yesterday. Let's see how many dollars the Central Bank needs to sell today.

 

[CraigM]

You are realistic. That is rare to find from a Milei supporter. Most are not grounded in any reality. The rich bought all the stock and you know it is dangerous because I am talking to some rather poor or middle class now that want to jump into bonds or other stocks that have never done it before in their life but they are hearing people talk about it. You know when this is too late. Many will jump in at higher prices and probably lose money they can't afford to lose.

Now I am hearing from people that own businesses that are going out of business. The blue dollar is starting to go up. Companies are getting out of carry trade like Toyota did yesterday. Let's see how many dollars the Central Bank needs to sell today.

I appreciate that Larry, it is easier to be realistic when you live far away and have no emotional attachment to the outcome. Local Milei supporters are no doubt filled with hope right now, perhaps for the first time in their lives or careers, and struggle to acknowledge anything negative about him. I would probably feel the same way, just praying your fellow countrymen can see the light and stick it out long enough to benefit from all their sacrifice.

I do think Argentina has everything it needs to be great, with so many assets and a non-violent culture. Capital wants to go there, but capital and socialism are allergic to each other. If Argentina votes in another socialist, you will hear that familiar sound of capital getting sucked back out of the country.

 

[Larry]

I appreciate that Larry, it is easier to be realistic when you live far away and have no emotional attachment to the outcome. Local Milei supporters are no doubt filled with hope right now, perhaps for the first time in their lives or careers, and struggle to acknowledge anything negative about him. I would probably feel the same way, just praying your fellow countrymen can see the light and stick it out long enough to benefit from all their sacrifice.

I do think Argentina has everything it needs to be great, with so many assets and a non-violent culture. Capital wants to go there, but capital and socialism are allergic to each other. If Argentina votes in another socialist, you will hear that familiar sound of capital getting sucked back out of the country.

Yes I see you have an outsiders view. I stopped posting for a while because it seems like only people that don't have anything negative to say about Milei. Maybe they have to do that to lie to themselves that not everything is going well. I was a supporter of the Kirchners. First Nelson and then Cristina. I think the country worked much better during their term in office. Less poor. Middle class could live decent life. People kept posting how they lied about the inflation. I could see it but did not want to admit it.

Now it is like dejavue because now Milei's people are lying about some inflation and his supporters don't want to see it. I read articles saying how salaries are going up more than inflation and that is not true.

I don't want to be posting all negative all the time. Regardless of my feelings for him I love Argentina and I am very sad I probably will have to leave a country I love because it is too expensive for me now. But maybe I will see another few months. I made the decision to leave but maybe the blue dollar will continue to go up. Thank you for your prayers Craig.

 

[Uncle Wong]

You know it is weird for me because I am looking to live there maybe in 2025 or 2026 and part of me wants to see a full recovery in the economy but then like Larry I will be living off dollar savings so I selfishly want it very cheap with dollars. I don't know what will happen once they remove currency restrictions. Will the peso plummet? I imagine probably half of the expats are in the same situation where you want Argentina to do well but maybe not too well or it will get too expensive. Tough spot to be in.

 

[Uncle Wong]

Yes I see you have an outsiders view. I stopped posting for a while because it seems like only people that don't have anything negative to say about Milei. Maybe they have to do that to lie to themselves that not everything is going well. I was a supporter of the Kirchners. First Nelson and then Cristina. I think the country worked much better during their term in office. Less poor. Middle class could live decent life. People kept posting how they lied about the inflation. I could see it but did not want to admit it.

Now it is like dejavue because now Milei's people are lying about some inflation and his supporters don't want to see it. I read articles saying how salaries are going up more than inflation and that is not true.

I don't want to be posting all negative all the time. Regardless of my feelings for him I love Argentina and I am very sad I probably will have to leave a country I love because it is too expensive for me now. But maybe I will see another few months. I made the decision to leave but maybe the blue dollar will continue to go up. Thank you for your prayers Craig.

I think some of the statistics are probably fudged a bit. Or their inflation numbers don't have many essential things that have massively gone up in price. Tons of local friends complaining about high cost of one thing or another.

I saw this online. I think sometimes Milei takes liberties with statistics.

Javier Milei, en cadena nacional: “El salario básico promedio creció de US$ 300 a US$ 1.100”

En la cadena nacional con la que conmemoró su primer año de gestión, el presidente Javier Milei (La Libertad Avanza) aseguró: “El salario básico promedio creció de US$ 300 a US$...

chequeado.com

 

[Avocado]

I appreciate that Larry, it is easier to be realistic when you live far away and have no emotional attachment to the outcome. Local Milei supporters are no doubt filled with hope right now, perhaps for the first time in their lives or careers, and struggle to acknowledge anything negative about him. I would probably feel the same way, just praying your fellow countrymen can see the light and stick it out long enough to benefit from all their sacrifice.

I do think Argentina has everything it needs to be great, with so many assets and a non-violent culture. Capital wants to go there, but capital and socialism are allergic to each other. If Argentina votes in another socialist, you will hear that familiar sound of capital getting sucked back out of the country.

I like you posts CraigM. Very balanced. It very complicated in my country. It easy for some to understand. Half the country is very poor and will always be poor. No matter what it will be difficult for them to change. And these people will always need a helping hand. That is what Milei don't realize. It not possible to forget about these people or help them. People say they lazy and don't want to work. Maybe some but many do but salary too low and prices too high. It true salaries go up but not enough to cover the cost of the things.

Look at subte and bus transportation cost percentage raise. Look at utility bill raise. Look at expensas with buildings. These jump up are astronomical. Look at medical insurance cost. It not sustainable to raise prices this much and expect all the people to support forever. Eventually they give up like you said Craig.

 

[CraigM]

I like you posts CraigM. Very balanced. It very complicated in my country. It easy for some to understand. Half the country is very poor and will always be poor. No matter what it will be difficult for them to change. And these people will always need a helping hand. That is what Milei don't realize. It not possible to forget about these people or help them. People say they lazy and don't want to work. Maybe some but many do but salary too low and prices too high. It true salaries go up but not enough to cover the cost of the things.

Look at subte and bus transportation cost percentage raise. Look at utility bill raise. Look at expensas with buildings. These jump up are astronomical. Look at medical insurance cost. It not sustainable to raise prices this much and expect all the people to support forever. Eventually they give up like you said Craig.

Thank you Avocado and I'm truly sorry to hear about all the struggles there. I am skiing in California with my family right now and the daily cost of that is probably more than most Argentinians earn in a month, so it would be absurd for me to tell locals to "suck it up". But I do believe Milei is by far your best hope for a better future. He has the right ideas and has proven very adept politically. You may hate some of the people he does business with, but without the support of a party there is no other way to get things done. The rot in Argentina is just so deep.

 

[Avocado]

Thank you Avocado and I'm truly sorry to hear about all the struggles there. I am skiing in California with my family right now and the daily cost of that is probably more than most Argentinians earn in a month, so it would be absurd for me to tell locals to "suck it up". But I do believe Milei is by far your best hope for a better future. He has the right ideas and has proven very adept politically. You may hate some of the people he does business with, but without the support of a party there is no other way to get things done. The rot in Argentina is just so deep.

Thank you. I can see you posts genuine. Ironic that a foreigner so far away make me change thinking more than any local that live here all their life. Maybe you are right about our best chance. We will see how 2025 goes. Have a good time skiing with family. I go skiing one time in Lake Tahoe and beautiful area. Many years ago but now too expensive for me to visit. You have good New Year.

 

[CraigM]

Thank you. I can see you posts genuine. Ironic that a foreigner so far away make me change thinking more than any local that live here all their life. Maybe you are right about our best chance. We will see how 2025 goes. Have a good time skiing with family. I go skiing one time in Lake Tahoe and beautiful area. Many years ago but now too expensive for me to visit. You have good New Year.

Thanks! We're in Lake Tahoe right now. Skiing in the US is ridiculously expensive but it's also great time with family, so I have to tell myself to "suck it up" 🙂

 

[earlyretirement]

Thanks! We're in Lake Tahoe right now. Skiing in the US is ridiculously expensive but it's also great time with family, so I have to tell myself to "suck it up" 🙂

Yes, beautiful area. We used to go skiing there every year. We would go during our kid's "ski week" from school in February. Very crowded and very expensive. You have to prepay in advance and book far ahead of time. One year we all got the flu and missed out after buying lift tickets, reserving private ski instructors, etc. The next year we make it up and there was a blizzard and very cold and the kids didn't want to go skiing or take lessons. Needless to say @CraigM that was the last year we went back. Now we go to Hawaii for ski week!