The Hedge-Fund Trade of the Year: Betting on Argentina’s Chain-Saw-Wielding President - WSJ

[Finance Prof]

Thanks! We're in Lake Tahoe right now. Skiing in the US is ridiculously expensive but it's also great time with family, so I have to tell myself to "suck it up" 🙂

I used to ski up at Heavenly. Great slopes and trails but the price has gotten painful. I used to go and it would be painful just eating up there or getting a few beers. I can't imagine what the prices are now. Last time I went was before covid. Small fortune. I just did it with friends. I can't imagine lugging around a family and footing the bill. Hopefully the weather is nice.

 

[Uncle Wong]

Thanks! We're in Lake Tahoe right now. Skiing in the US is ridiculously expensive but it's also great time with family, so I have to tell myself to "suck it up" 🙂

I stopped going skiing a few years ago. Got to the point where it was tough to enjoy. Even though I liked skiing between the rates at hotel, airfare, renting equipment, lift tickets and then getting raped with food and drink prices at the top of the mountain it was difficult to enjoy! Prices have skyrocketed since they consolidated and I heard that one or two companies mostly run all of these mountains now so they can charge whatever the hell they want!

 

[CraigM]

Yes, beautiful area. We used to go skiing there every year. We would go during our kid's "ski week" from school in February. Very crowded and very expensive. You have to prepay in advance and book far ahead of time. One year we all got the flu and missed out after buying lift tickets, reserving private ski instructors, etc. The next year we make it up and there was a blizzard and very cold and the kids didn't want to go skiing or take lessons. Needless to say @CraigM that was the last year we went back. Now we go to Hawaii for ski week!

Oh wow I can sure relate to that, Mike. This year has been a bust for skiing with rain and high winds closing most of the mountain. I doubt we've skied a full day in total. Hawaii is amazing, wish it wasn't so far from Texas.

 

[Wally]

I appreciate that Larry, it is easier to be realistic when you live far away and have no emotional attachment to the outcome. Local Milei supporters are no doubt filled with hope right now, perhaps for the first time in their lives or careers, and struggle to acknowledge anything negative about him. I would probably feel the same way, just praying your fellow countrymen can see the light and stick it out long enough to benefit from all their sacrifice.

I do think Argentina has everything it needs to be great, with so many assets and a non-violent culture. Capital wants to go there, but capital and socialism are allergic to each other. If Argentina votes in another socialist, you will hear that familiar sound of capital getting sucked back out of the country.

This is why I like getting opinions from my friends that don't live in Argentina. My friends or family in Argentina are too close to one side or the other and can't look at things objectively. Great having your input @CraigM. People underestimate how tough it has been for locals that live here. Often times it feels like expats just care about how cheap of a steak they can get and nothing else. I really hope things don't swing back to socialism. All the progress Milei has made will quickly disappear if so.

 

[Wally]

Oh wow I can sure relate to that, Mike. This year has been a bust for skiing with rain and high winds closing most of the mountain. I doubt we've skied a full day in total. Hawaii is amazing, wish it wasn't so far from Texas.

That is how it was for us one year! Imagine coming from Argentina to go all the way to the US spend all of the time and trouble and money! There were very high winds and all the ski lifts were closed for days. I wish I could say that Argentina was cheap. I'm not sure of prices in the USA but prices have come up significantly over the years in Argentina too. Now my knees are too bad to ski.

 

[earlyretirement]

Oh wow I can sure relate to that, Mike. This year has been a bust for skiing with rain and high winds closing most of the mountain. I doubt we've skied a full day in total. Hawaii is amazing, wish it wasn't so far from Texas.

That is how it was for us one year! Imagine coming from Argentina to go all the way to the US spend all of the time and trouble and money! There were very high winds and all the ski lifts were closed for days. I wish I could say that Argentina was cheap. I'm not sure of prices in the USA but prices have come up significantly over the years in Argentina too. Now my knees are too bad to ski.

Definitely we had our fair share of bad weather at both Mammoth Mountain and also Lake Tahoe. @CraigM if you get a chance go on a snowmobile tour. One year when there was a huge storm we did that after a big dump of snow and it was awesome! Still, when the weather is great it is really beautiful.

 

[Vero]

This is why I like getting opinions from my friends that don't live in Argentina. My friends or family in Argentina are too close to one side or the other and can't look at things objectively. Great having your input @CraigM. People underestimate how tough it has been for locals that live here. Often times it feels like expats just care about how cheap of a steak they can get and nothing else. I really hope things don't swing back to socialism. All the progress Milei has made will quickly disappear if so.

Totally agree. Half my friends here like Milei and half of them hate Milei. Even within my own family we disagree. Some say things were much better before. In my family several people get laid off from work and they were not noquis but hardworking people. Even the good things and progress Milei has made they keep saying wait and they will crash in 2025. No one knows. My experience in Argentina is if you wait long enough whatever position or side you are on if you wait it will eventually come true!

 

[Faith]

I don't want to be posting all negative all the time. Regardless of my feelings for him I love Argentina and I am very sad I probably will have to leave a country I love because it is too expensive for me now. But maybe I will see another few months. I made the decision to leave but maybe the blue dollar will continue to go up. Thank you for your prayers Craig.

I'm very sorry to hear that you might be forced out of Argentina. That is a new reality some of my other friends are also facing. Many people are on fixed incomes and can't afford to live here anymore. The locals are accustomed to ups and downs but most foreigners have not experienced these kinds of swings. My husband tells me that it is normal for them. Very stressful. Many of our friends that are expats are planning to move in 2025 unless something changes. Inflation is going down but prices are still rising. Our medical premium has continued to go up.

 

[daveholman]

I like you posts CraigM. Very balanced. It very complicated in my country. It easy for some to understand. Half the country is very poor and will always be poor. No matter what it will be difficult for them to change. And these people will always need a helping hand. That is what Milei don't realize. It not possible to forget about these people or help them. People say they lazy and don't want to work. Maybe some but many do but salary too low and prices too high. It true salaries go up but not enough to cover the cost of the things.

Look at subte and bus transportation cost percentage raise. Look at utility bill raise. Look at expensas with buildings. These jump up are astronomical. Look at medical insurance cost. It not sustainable to raise prices this much and expect all the people to support forever. Eventually they give up like you said Craig.

They weren't always poor. Why should the always be poor in the future? 100 years ago, Argentina's poverty rate was very low. They were an economic superpower, with higher per capita GDP than Germany, France or Italy. Mostly based on being a super exporter with a liberal trade policy.
Her economic problems began with a world wide depression in the 1930's that she never really climbed out of, thanks to poor governance and alternating cycles of military coups and socialists.

 

[Betsy Ross]

They weren't always poor. Why should the always be poor in the future? 100 years ago, Argentina's poverty rate was very low. They were an economic superpower, with higher per capita GDP than Germany, France or Italy. Mostly based on being a super exporter with a liberal trade policy.
Her economic problems began with a world wide depression in the 1930's that she never really climbed out of, thanks to poor governance and alternating cycles of military coups and socialists.

Argentina before was extremely wealthy. Not sure we will see that again soon but it could get there again with many years of good governance. It is a country with many natural resources. It just needs a few decades of good leadership and we could get there again.

 

[CraigM]

Definitely we had our fair share of bad weather at both Mammoth Mountain and also Lake Tahoe. @CraigM if you get a chance go on a snowmobile tour. One year when there was a huge storm we did that after a big dump of snow and it was awesome! Still, when the weather is great it is really beautiful.

Great idea, next time we're snowed in here for sure!

 

[CraigM]

This is why I like getting opinions from my friends that don't live in Argentina. My friends or family in Argentina are too close to one side or the other and can't look at things objectively. Great having your input @CraigM. People underestimate how tough it has been for locals that live here. Often times it feels like expats just care about how cheap of a steak they can get and nothing else. I really hope things don't swing back to socialism. All the progress Milei has made will quickly disappear if so.

Thanks Wally. I sure appreciate all the comments and suggestions here, they made my BA trip so much better. I'm already itching to go again!

 

[daveholman]

Argentina before was extremely wealthy. Not sure we will see that again soon but it could get there again with many years of good governance. It is a country with many natural resources. It just needs a few decades of good leadership and we could get there again.

Between the natural resources, a productive agricultural sector, tourism and an educated work force, good governance is all Argentina needs to regain her former status as a world power.

 

[Uncle Wong]

Between the natural resources, a productive agricultural sector, tourism and an educated work force, good governance is all Argentina needs to regain her former status as a world power.

That is what I think too. If people will just give Milei a chance just doing common sense things seem like it is all Argentina needs. Not even doing anything crazy like blowing up the Central Bank but just common sense laws and changes and good governance like you mentioned @daveholman!

Thanks Wally. I sure appreciate all the comments and suggestions here, they made my BA trip so much better. I'm already itching to go again!

That was the same for me. I mostly lurked on this forum and just read a lot of articles and posts and it really helped me. Sometimes just reading about two different sides for and against Milei made me learn things. Made my trip better too. I am going back in a few weeks. I'm worried that it will be so dead in town. People tell me that January is very quiet. I hope everything will be open. Anyone in town in January?