Banking What is going on with the Blue dollar? Why is it going down?

[James Bond]

Yesterday I thought they said the blue dollar was going to go up. Instead, it is going down. -https://www.ambito.com/contenidos/dolar.html

Does anyone know why the blue dollar went down? It is getting more expensive. I don't want to complain too much as I still got 960 pesos to $1 USD today. Still great but the local prices seem like they are going up faster now. Is that my imagination?

 

[Che Vos]

Things go up and things go down. The rate has been going up and down the past few days as always. You are getting 960 pesos to $1 US and you're complaining???! If it's so expensive for you why don't you go back to your home countries?

 

[Vince]

Is the ex-pat fiesta over with?

 

[Vero]

Yesterday I thought they said the blue dollar was going to go up. Instead, it is going down. -https://www.ambito.com/contenidos/dolar.html

Does anyone know why the blue dollar went down? It is getting more expensive. I don't want to complain too much as I still got 960 pesos to $1 USD today. Still great but the local prices seem like they are going up faster now. Is that my imagination?

I'm not sure what you are referring to when you say "prices seem like they are going up faster". I haven't seen too noticeable price increases other than maybe gas prices but most of us probably don't drive so not sure. I don't notice my taxi or Uber bills too much different at all.

Western Union rates seem to be not too much different than a few days ago when I sent myself money. Can you mention what you're referring to?

 

[Silvia]

Inflation is inevitable. No matter who was President this was going to happen. Let's just hope there is NO hyperinflation. That would have probably happened with Massa as president. In the short term prices in USD will most likely go up just like it did in the last 1990's.

 

[earlyretirement]

Inflation is inevitable. No matter who was President this was going to happen. Let's just hope there is NO hyperinflation. That would have probably happened with Massa as president. In the short term prices in USD will most likely go up just like it did in the last 1990's.

Definitely things WILL get more expensive. The question just is how much more. With Massa there would be hyperinflation. Milei won't have an easy go and he still may regret winning the Presidency. I can tell you he has a LOT of sleepless nights. Buenos Aires is TOO cheap now. It's insanely cheap and even if prices go up 100% in USD terms, it's still a bargain for being such a world-class city.

Go to many world capital cities around the world and they can't compare to Buenos Aires. I'd come here even if it was on par with the most expensive cities in the world which it won't be any time soon. The USA is a dump in many cities. I go out to eat with my family of 5 and sometimes spend up to $450+ US by the time you add in the tip and other rip-off healthcare surcharges that many restaurants are now adding on in California.

I went with my wife to eat the other night the two of us in San Diego and it was $380 US dollars. Buenos Aires is crazy cheap now and things need to go higher. There will definitely be a purge with the expat community like there was the last time. And I don't necessarily think that is a bad thing. Tourists will keep coming there even if it gets more expensive.

The only ones that feel safe will be people that were smart enough to buy there and own real estate and not dependent on crazy increases in rent. I realize that it's difficult to purchase there as it's 100% non-leveraged CASH purchase. But then again I don't think most expats can buy here as they don't have much of a net worth from what I've seen over the past 22 years there.

I would venture to guess that most of the expats on the old forum have a very low net worth and probably barely scraping by. I still think Buenos Aires beats most other cities so I'm not sure where they will go. But the USA is very expensive now so I'm not sure what their Plan B is. Maybe some crappy lower tier city in Peru or something. I'm not sure.

 

[Che Vos]

Also don't forget as the year's wrapping up, there's this crazy demand for pesos 'cause everyone's paying bills, and there are tons of tourists around. It's like, the dollar is feeling the heat. Compared to last year, folks seem to have less cash to throw around for buying dollars, which totally matches what's going on with the economy right now.

So, last night, I hit up this restaurant in Palermo Soho with boyfriend. It was jam-packed, mostly with tourists – lots of Americans, but also folks from all over. Fun fact: we were the only locals in the joint. About the prices going up in dollars, I'm thinking it's because the official dollar rate is climbing and the U.S. is dealing with some serious inflation. That stuff's bound to mess with our local scene, you know?

 

[Finance Prof]

The unprecedented 33% differential between the Blue dollar and the Official rate signifies a historical milestone. However, the sustainability of this margin may be brief, IMHO.

Something to look out for in January 2024 is the valuation of the Blue currency.

 

[Wally]

The unprecedented 33% differential between the Blue dollar and the Official rate signifies a historical milestone. However, the sustainability of this margin may be brief, IMHO.

Something to look out for in January 2024 is the valuation of the Blue currency.

Yes, I would have to think the Blue dollar will start getting stronger in January after the holidays. It's always the same this time of the year. Many locals are also traveling to Uruguay and other places like Miami where many have 2nd homes. For those that have USD even though there is inflation, it should be favorable after the holidays and once the locals are back in February. But of course I could be wrong. What do I know.

My sister just came down to visit me and my best friend just left. They said ALL the planes are totally full. Every single seat. Most of these tourists are confused and don't realize they can use their credit cards and get a favorable rate so they are bringing tons of $100 US bills and adding to the cuevas.

 

[Finance Prof]

Yes, I would have to think the Blue dollar will start getting stronger in January after the holidays. It's always the same this time of the year. Many locals are also traveling to Uruguay and other places like Miami where many have 2nd homes. For those that have USD even though there is inflation, it should be favorable after the holidays and once the locals are back in February. But of course I could be wrong. What do I know.

My sister just came down to visit me and my best friend just left. They said ALL the planes are totally full. Every single seat. Most of these tourists are confused and don't realize they can use their credit cards and get a favorable rate so they are bringing tons of $100 US bills and adding to the cuevas.

Yes the blue dollar will have to get stronger after the holidays. What do you all think this will be at by January 15 when the holidays are all over?

 

[Spend Thrift]

I'm still learning all the blue dollar, white dollar, MEP, cripto, mumbo jumbo. I've only been here a month but it seems like every day I look there is a new rate!

Dólar hoy, cotización del dólar, precio del dólar, dólar blue, precio histórico del dólar, valor del UVA | Dolarito.ar

Seguí la cotización del dólar minuto a minuto, compara cotizaciones, visualiza los valores históricos, conocé el precio del dólar, evolución del valor UVA

www.dolarito.ar

Today I noticed a Netflix rate! What is that??

 

[StatusNomadicus]

is it 15Jan, @Finance Prof ? i have been asking lawyers, but no one seems to know the exact dates. someone told me last 2 weeks of Dec are useless if you're working with the Gov't because of the holidays. so 15Dec-15Jan would be a long time off, where businesses aren't doing as much!

also, if anyone who has moved here has observed this, i've read about 2 strange traditions:

1. https://globalpressjournal.com/americas/argentina/argentine-student-messy-celebration/

2. https://www.natashathenomad.com/argentinian-new-year-tradition

anyone know the dates on these, so i can watch one?

 

[Wally]

is it 15Jan, @Finance Prof ? i have been asking lawyers, but no one seems to know the exact dates. someone told me last 2 weeks of Dec are useless if you're working with the Gov't because of the holidays. so 15Dec-15Jan would be a long time off, where businesses aren't doing as much!

also, if anyone who has moved here has observed this, i've read about 2 strange traditions:

1. https://globalpressjournal.com/americas/argentina/argentine-student-messy-celebration/

2. https://www.natashathenomad.com/argentinian-new-year-tradition

anyone know the dates on these, so i can watch one?

I don't think @Finance Prof was referring to any specific "holiday" but meaning Christmas and New Year. Usually things are dead here from end of December to end of January. BA is very slow that time of year with many locals traveling. I'm not sure how this year will be with so many having financial struggles. I've never heard of those two things in the link.

My guess is that once things go back at the end of January we will see the divergence of the official and blue again. I don't see how it wouldn't be. Probably by late February we will see a big spread again between the two.

 

[GlasgowJohn]

I dont think we will ever see the big spread we saw under the Alberto And Massa regime.

The Milei government's objective is to narrow the spread. As this will allow them to dollarize earlier.

But as I tell my friends, anyone who tries to predict what will happen to the grey and blue rates here is a fool. And he should send an immediate transfer to my Ugandan bank account.

😂😂😂

 

[Betsy Ross]

Milei has just signaled that they will try to keep the official dollar lower in the near term. There is talk of 1% inflation per day for the next few weeks. And the official dollar will get adjusted about 2% a month so I'd have to believe the blue dollar MUST go UP. I'm not sure if it will go to the levels that we saw previously earlier this year in 2023 of double the rate of the white and blue but due to the inflation, banks asked the BCRA to eliminate fixed terms in UVA and loans at a subsidized rate. See this:

​

Por la inflación, los bancos pidieron al BCRA eliminar los plazos fijos en UVA y los créditos a tasa subsidiada

La normativa los obliga a ofrecerlos pero ambos productos son muy desventajosos para las entidades. Por eso le reclamaron su desactivación al nuevo presidente del Banco Central, Santiago Bausili

www.infobae.com

 

[Colin]

I dont think we will ever see the big spread we saw under the Alberto And Massa regime.

The Milei government's objective is to narrow the spread. As this will allow them to dollarize earlier.

But as I tell my friends, anyone who tries to predict what will happen to the grey and blue rates here is a fool. And he should send an immediate transfer to my Ugandan bank account.

😂😂😂

I agree @GlasgowJohn about the huge spreads. What do you believe the spread will be? Like you, I tell all my friends (and they tell me too) that they have NO idea how things will turn up. Just like you mentioned, most of my friends even the ones that work at banks tell me they don't know how this experiment will turn out. I think anyone that pretends to know should immediately wire to my Nigerian account too!

Looking back at Argentina's history, we've repeated this scenario countless times, yet governments, be it PRO, Kirchnerites, or La Libertad Avanza, appear oblivious to the fact that resisting devaluation during periods of high inflation is remarkably short-sighted. The efficacy of the crawling peg is limited to situations where inflation is in the lower double digits in Argentina.

 

[Larry]

So, if the government actually sticks to its promise of not faking a low official rate, there shouldn't be any gap, right? What's your take? Do you think this government is gonna keep it real, or are we in for another round of trying to control the official rate like the ones before?

If everyone can just purchase up as many dollars as they want with the pesos they already got, it's all good. But when a big chunk of Porteños has to resort to the black market for foreign currency, that's when a gap shows up. And if the government keeps trying to patch up that gap over and over again, it's a mess. 'Cause the blue dollar isn't the real value of the peso; it's just the real value for the folks dealing with the restricted currency.

I just hit up the supermarket, and prices basically doubled in a week. Now they're almost on par with USA prices! Veggies and fruits are even crazier expensive. Doesn't really faze me too too much, but I can't picture the average Argentine keeping up with all this.

 

[Che Vos]

I just hit up the supermarket, and prices basically doubled in a week. Now they're almost on par with USA prices! Veggies and fruits are even crazier expensive. Doesn't really faze me too too much, but I can't picture the average Argentine keeping up with all this.

You are always crying like a baby @Larry. My cousins live in the United States. Prices here are NOT the same as the United States. Stop exaggerating. Thanks for being so kind and worried about us locals! NOT. All you expats care about is cheap steaks. As you mentioned, "doesn't really affect me".

We will see soon why Massa should have been elected as President. I feel like things would be better with him.

 

[Larry]

You are always crying like a baby @Larry. My cousins live in the United States. Prices here are NOT the same as the United States. Stop exaggerating. Thanks for being so kind and worried about us locals! NOT. All you expats care about is cheap steaks. As you mentioned, "doesn't really affect me".

We will see soon why Massa should have been elected as President. I feel like things would be better with him.

Yes I am an expat with US dollars but I don't think you realize I also wanted Massa to win. I definitely did not want Milei to win. I actually am agreeing with you that Massa would have been better for Argentina. Milei is an evil man.

 

[Finance Prof]

is it 15Jan, @Finance Prof ? i have been asking lawyers, but no one seems to know the exact dates. someone told me last 2 weeks of Dec are useless if you're working with the Gov't because of the holidays. so 15Dec-15Jan would be a long time off, where businesses aren't doing as much!

I just meant Christmas and NY holidays. It's always dead this time of the year. I have a feeling this year not as many Porteños will be traveling much. Even my rich local friends aren't going to Punta del Este this year. Some are going to Pinamar but many said they are going to not travel and save money. Even some friends that go to Mar del Plata are sticking around here. Rental prices in Pinamar and MDP have gone up tremendously. I think more domestic travel vs. going to Miami, etc.