BuySellBA
Administrator
With money laundering, these will be the properties that will increase the most in price - IProfesional
Source:
www.iprofesional.com
August 11, 2024
The segment of used studio- and one-bedroom apartments will be the most dynamic. Well developments also entered into the regulations
The Federal Public Revenue Administration (AFIP) regulated the money laundering proposed in the tax package, contemplated in Law 27,743 and approved together with the Bases Law. The money laundering or regularization will be divided into three stages, the deadline for which to make the adhesion statement is April 30, 2025. The good news for the property market is that the laundered money will be able to be invested both in the purchase of used homes and in real estate projects under development .
This is why the actors involved are eagerly awaiting the movements that will take place in the coming months, hoping for a price rebound for a market that has been in agony for years.
"The news of the money laundering comes at a time when credits are appearing that have not been available for 6 years . Beyond the fact that they have been implemented in a calm and slow manner, the convergence of both tools at the same time generates many expectations for our market because there are people who can launder up to US$100,000 without a fine and use them by requesting a credit for a lower percentage than the 70% or 80% limit that banks finance," explains Alejandro Braña, real estate broker and member of the Board of Directors and the Statistical Observatory of the CABA Real Estate College.
"This phenomenon is similar to the one that occurred, with some variable changes, during Mauricio Macri's administration with two products that are enhanced and go to assets such as shares and properties. The construction or real estate market is a great channel for these funds. The first impact is that it is a capital that generates more transactions because those who adhere to the money laundering are going to buy a property and the same dynamic leads to this having a direct effect on prices ," says Alan Schachter, architect, broker and real estate advisor.
Considering that taxpayers who do not have their assets declared in the country will be able to launder up to US$100,000 without paying any fixed tax, it is expected that used properties with like studio or one bedroom will be the ones that will become more dynamic and those that will increase their value due to the rebound effect.
The sector expects a price rebound for a market that has been in agony for years
While it is true that market prices have stabilized and stopped falling since September 2023, the expectation is that this year they may also rise by between 2% and 5%, although not in the same way in all segments.
Real estate broker Fabián Achával says that "the one that goes from 0 to $100,000 will see a sharp rise in value, while the one that goes from $100,000 to $200,000 will not. From then on, I don't really think that there will be a recovery in prices motivated by money laundering." Thus, it is obvious that the star of the real estate market "will be the 0 to 100 segment because money laundering will affect mortgage credit, since there are people who now do not have to justify that money," he says.
However, he is cautious as the outlook for loans is slower than expected. "The sales teams were dismantled. We will see in a couple of days what happens with mortgages but there are few transactions at the moment," he adds.
Thus, the projections for the coming months are cautious but optimistic. In principle, because there is something that is already happening and that is that the total number of deeds of sale of real estate, according to the recent report delivered by the College of Notaries of CABA with respect to the data of June 2024, registered a year-on-year improvement in acts of 28% with 4,232 deeds registered against a record of 3,320 in June 2023.
However, there are still many doubts regarding loans for home purchases because "it is clear that the aforementioned and promoted mortgage loans that appeared after 6 years of absence last April, have not reached the reality of the people, of the street and of the numbers," the organization said.
Schachter believes that we must be patient and observe the following: "Macri's April 2016 was the same, and at the end of the year it became exponential and rose to 2,000 credits. So, if we continue with the money laundering, plus the stable offer, the number of transactions in relation to what is published will increase, without a doubt."
With the new regime, the values of used apartments will go up
"If we take into account that on average around 40,000 deeds are registered annually in Buenos Aires, the fact that CEDIN has enabled this number of transactions was very positive," says real estate analyst and advisor Daniel Bryn.
In this way, regarding the new money laundering regime, the consultant adds that "according to the Central Bank, there are US$277 billion in the reserve and not laundered , and if we take into account that operations are registered per month for around US$390 million, I believe that any dollar that spills into the market those US$270 billion that can be laundered, will clearly have a very positive effect."
"Under these conditions, it is clear that most of the operations will be aimed at used apartments, although the supply is low. On the other hand, there are many projects under construction so I think that this will be a very beneficial segment," says Bryn.
On this point, however, a question remains. "I think that a 50/50 purchase is not easy because the developer wants to set a price based on the proximity to completion, the time and effort involved, and the investor wants to maintain the price of the well. We will have to see how this dynamic plays out," says Schachter.
According to the regulations, the amount that can be laundered without paying any type of fee amounts to US$100,000.
In any case, this is very good news for the construction sector, which saw its costs in dollars skyrocket, causing many projects in progress to be paralyzed and awaiting measures of this type to get things moving again. In fact, this was one of the demands that the Chamber of Urban Developers had made with the greatest emphasis to the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, so that the money laundering would further energize the sector.
We will have to wait and see the impact of the measure that is expected to activate the market, together with mortgage loans. To do so, all the experts consulted agree on one thing: there must be prepared technical teams and the administrative steps must be simpler and quicker to resolve because recovery is urgent.
www.buysellba.com
Source:
Con el blanqueo de capitales, expertos anticipan cuáles serán las propiedades que más subirán de precio
El segmento de departamentos usados de uno y dos ambientes van a ser los más dinamizados. Los desarrollos de pozo también entraron en la reglamentación
www.iprofesional.com
August 11, 2024
The segment of used studio- and one-bedroom apartments will be the most dynamic. Well developments also entered into the regulations
The Federal Public Revenue Administration (AFIP) regulated the money laundering proposed in the tax package, contemplated in Law 27,743 and approved together with the Bases Law. The money laundering or regularization will be divided into three stages, the deadline for which to make the adhesion statement is April 30, 2025. The good news for the property market is that the laundered money will be able to be invested both in the purchase of used homes and in real estate projects under development .
This is why the actors involved are eagerly awaiting the movements that will take place in the coming months, hoping for a price rebound for a market that has been in agony for years.
"The news of the money laundering comes at a time when credits are appearing that have not been available for 6 years . Beyond the fact that they have been implemented in a calm and slow manner, the convergence of both tools at the same time generates many expectations for our market because there are people who can launder up to US$100,000 without a fine and use them by requesting a credit for a lower percentage than the 70% or 80% limit that banks finance," explains Alejandro Braña, real estate broker and member of the Board of Directors and the Statistical Observatory of the CABA Real Estate College.
Property prices are on the way
Most real estate experts agree that it is very likely that this possibility of raising funds that can be used to purchase properties will have a direct impact on prices, leading to an increase ."This phenomenon is similar to the one that occurred, with some variable changes, during Mauricio Macri's administration with two products that are enhanced and go to assets such as shares and properties. The construction or real estate market is a great channel for these funds. The first impact is that it is a capital that generates more transactions because those who adhere to the money laundering are going to buy a property and the same dynamic leads to this having a direct effect on prices ," says Alan Schachter, architect, broker and real estate advisor.
Considering that taxpayers who do not have their assets declared in the country will be able to launder up to US$100,000 without paying any fixed tax, it is expected that used properties with like studio or one bedroom will be the ones that will become more dynamic and those that will increase their value due to the rebound effect.
The sector expects a price rebound for a market that has been in agony for years
While it is true that market prices have stabilized and stopped falling since September 2023, the expectation is that this year they may also rise by between 2% and 5%, although not in the same way in all segments.
Real estate broker Fabián Achával says that "the one that goes from 0 to $100,000 will see a sharp rise in value, while the one that goes from $100,000 to $200,000 will not. From then on, I don't really think that there will be a recovery in prices motivated by money laundering." Thus, it is obvious that the star of the real estate market "will be the 0 to 100 segment because money laundering will affect mortgage credit, since there are people who now do not have to justify that money," he says.
However, he is cautious as the outlook for loans is slower than expected. "The sales teams were dismantled. We will see in a couple of days what happens with mortgages but there are few transactions at the moment," he adds.
Thus, the projections for the coming months are cautious but optimistic. In principle, because there is something that is already happening and that is that the total number of deeds of sale of real estate, according to the recent report delivered by the College of Notaries of CABA with respect to the data of June 2024, registered a year-on-year improvement in acts of 28% with 4,232 deeds registered against a record of 3,320 in June 2023.
However, there are still many doubts regarding loans for home purchases because "it is clear that the aforementioned and promoted mortgage loans that appeared after 6 years of absence last April, have not reached the reality of the people, of the street and of the numbers," the organization said.
Schachter believes that we must be patient and observe the following: "Macri's April 2016 was the same, and at the end of the year it became exponential and rose to 2,000 credits. So, if we continue with the money laundering, plus the stable offer, the number of transactions in relation to what is published will increase, without a doubt."
With the new regime, the values of used apartments will go up
What if it turns out well?
Looking back, it is likely that the last major money laundering scheme in Argentina was the Certificate of Deposit for Investment, CEDIN, which was implemented in 2013 and was intended as a tool to attract undeclared dollars stored in safe deposit boxes, under the mattress, tax havens or accounts abroad. The adjective is appropriate since it generated a laundering of US$1.3 billion through approximately 9,200 real estate transactions."If we take into account that on average around 40,000 deeds are registered annually in Buenos Aires, the fact that CEDIN has enabled this number of transactions was very positive," says real estate analyst and advisor Daniel Bryn.
In this way, regarding the new money laundering regime, the consultant adds that "according to the Central Bank, there are US$277 billion in the reserve and not laundered , and if we take into account that operations are registered per month for around US$390 million, I believe that any dollar that spills into the market those US$270 billion that can be laundered, will clearly have a very positive effect."
Developers celebrate
The regulations indicate that the amount that can be laundered without paying any type of fee is US$100,000 . When the figure exceeds this amount, the excess to be paid could be 5%, 10% or 15% depending on the moment of adhesion to the regime. The regulations also define that purchases in well projects that are not more than 50% complete are exempt from paying fees ."Under these conditions, it is clear that most of the operations will be aimed at used apartments, although the supply is low. On the other hand, there are many projects under construction so I think that this will be a very beneficial segment," says Bryn.
On this point, however, a question remains. "I think that a 50/50 purchase is not easy because the developer wants to set a price based on the proximity to completion, the time and effort involved, and the investor wants to maintain the price of the well. We will have to see how this dynamic plays out," says Schachter.
According to the regulations, the amount that can be laundered without paying any type of fee amounts to US$100,000.
In any case, this is very good news for the construction sector, which saw its costs in dollars skyrocket, causing many projects in progress to be paralyzed and awaiting measures of this type to get things moving again. In fact, this was one of the demands that the Chamber of Urban Developers had made with the greatest emphasis to the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, so that the money laundering would further energize the sector.
We will have to wait and see the impact of the measure that is expected to activate the market, together with mortgage loans. To do so, all the experts consulted agree on one thing: there must be prepared technical teams and the administrative steps must be simpler and quicker to resolve because recovery is urgent.
www.buysellba.com
