Banking What is going on with the Blue dollar? Why is it going down?

[Pobre Luis]

On Friday I mentioned that big money started closing out of their carry trade positions.

On Friday the Central Bank had to sell $474 Million USD
Yesterday (Monday) they had to sell $56 Million USD
Today they had to sell $215 Million USD.

Smart money knows that it's time to get back into the US Dollar.

Devaluation most likely coming soon.

I have been posting that the Argentine peso was drastically overvalued. Governments can manipulate their currency and they might be successful for a while. Sometimes years, but the market always will bring it to its true value over time. Let's see where we end up by the time the elections are here.

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So much for Milei's predition of the dollar falling like a piano! He went from saying the peso was sh*t to saying the dollar would go 600 pesos to the dollar! 🤡 I guess he is out of the running for a Nobel Prize!

 

[daveholman]

This could be the start of something great for those of us earning in dollars

 

[earlyretirement]

This could be the start of something great for those of us earning in dollars

The crypto market it's even higher. I don't follow crypto much at all but I was talking to @BowTiedMara today from X on the phone today and he was telling me how crypto is even going higher. He showed me this graph which was cool to see. I guess USDT is paying even higher.

CriptoYa - Precios de criptomonedas

Consultá en tiempo real el precio de Bitcoin, Ethereum, USDT y otras criptomonedas en Latinoamérica.

criptoya.com

 

[MikeYoung]

This could be the start of something great for those of us earning in dollars

But won't inflation just go higher eating away at these gains? Or can locals not increase prices this high? I guess not considering it jumped up 4% today alone!

 

[Larry]

This could be the start of something great for those of us earning in dollars

Pray there are more days like today. The start of something beautiful. The peso should be 2,000 to $1 right now!

The crypto market it's even higher. I don't follow crypto much at all but I was talking to @BowTiedMara today from X on the phone today and he was telling me how crypto is even going higher. He showed me this graph which was cool to see. I guess USDT is paying even higher.

CriptoYa - Precios de criptomonedas

Consultá en tiempo real el precio de Bitcoin, Ethereum, USDT y otras criptomonedas en Latinoamérica.

criptoya.com

Wow does the blue follow crypto lead? It says 1320 to $1 now on that link. How can I get that rate? I need to buy crypto first? If so which crypto?

But won't inflation just go higher eating away at these gains? Or can locals not increase prices this high? I guess not considering it jumped up 4% today alone!

Inflation will go up but if the peso collapses prices can't go up as high because no one will buy. Even today people are struggling to pay these prices but places aren't reducing prices.

 

[earlyretirement]

Blue dollar still going up. 1,300.

 

[BA Bound]

It is great to see the dollar finally moving up! I am confused because I read Caputo said there will be an exchange rate policy change. What does this mean? I guess that is why the markets jumped up. No one knows. I wonder if the IMF will make them just float their currency? Government controls and restrictions don't work. I thought Milei was against this?

En un día los dólares libres subieron lo que Caputo devalúa en tres meses

El estado de crisis persiste. El ministro de Economía emitió señales de que se vienen cambios en la política cambiaria y eso profundizó la movida hacia el dólar. Por eso, el blue, el MEP y el CCL saltaron 3%, el triple del crawling del 1% que se realiza en un mes.

eleconomista.com.ar

 

[Finance Prof]

It is great to see the dollar finally moving up! I am confused because I read Caputo said there will be an exchange rate policy change. What does this mean? I guess that is why the markets jumped up. No one knows. I wonder if the IMF will make them just float their currency? Government controls and restrictions don't work. I thought Milei was against this?

En un día los dólares libres subieron lo que Caputo devalúa en tres meses

El estado de crisis persiste. El ministro de Economía emitió señales de que se vienen cambios en la política cambiaria y eso profundizó la movida hacia el dólar. Por eso, el blue, el MEP y el CCL saltaron 3%, el triple del crawling del 1% que se realiza en un mes.

eleconomista.com.ar

The IMF will probably let them do a dirty float. Where they will let Argentina control it if it gets outside of the bands of what Argentina considers normal. Basically still controlling the currency. Once the end ALL currency controls we will see what exchange rate is.

 

[noname]

Blue dollar still going up. 1,300.

View attachment 8925

According to analysts, the dollar will keep rising, while inflation will continue to decrease, though in reality, it will remain high for the population.

A cuánto llegarán el dólar y la inflación en diciembre de 2025, según los principales analistas internacionales

Un análisis de FocusEconomics revela que el peso se depreciará de forma moderada durante este año y que la inflación continuará bajando, pero se mantendrá elevada al final de 2025

www.infobae.com

 

[Larry]

Central Banks reserves are going down like a broken submarine.

Milei is the Captain of the Titanic.

 

[Uncle Wong]

Central Banks reserves are going down like a broken submarine.

Milei is the Captain of the Titanic.

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View attachment 8959

I have to admit Larry that is a good one. It seems like just a few weeks ago we were at over $30 billion. What happens if the IMF deal doesn't come through? What will happen?

 

[Uncle Wong]

Blue is jumping up. I see it went up to 1,315 to $1 today. Yipppee.

 

[marilyn]

Milei must be worried, he probably sees this as a sign that the market still doesn’t trust the peso. He might blame it on the uncertainty around the Omnibus Law or the adjustment not being enough yet. Still, he’s always said he wouldn’t interfere with the dollar, so he’ll most likely let the market do its thing, but if it keeps rising and starts affecting prices, he’ll have to decide whether to stay firm or make some changes.

 

[GlasgowJohn]

Milei must be worried, he probably sees this as a sign that the market still doesn’t trust the peso. He might blame it on the uncertainty around the Omnibus Law or the adjustment not being enough yet. Still, he’s always said he wouldn’t interfere with the dollar, so he’ll most likely let the market do its thing, but if it keeps rising and starts affecting prices, he’ll have to decide whether to stay firm or make some changes.

They have been interfering with the USD for some months but now with negative reserves they cant do it as often as they want to.

 

[earlyretirement]

They have been interfering with the USD for some months but now with negative reserves they cant do it as often as they want to.

But this intervention is one of the things that I have been against Milei. This is the same failed strategies from the past. I liked Milei better when he said the peso was sh*t and he wanted to blow up the Central Bank.

 

[Larry]

I have to admit Larry that is a good one. It seems like just a few weeks ago we were at over $30 billion. What happens if the IMF deal doesn't come through? What will happen?

The IMF deal will happen but I hope they don't let them keep burning dollars!

They have been interfering with the USD for some months but now with negative reserves they cant do it as often as they want to.

But what do you mean now with negative reserves? They have always had negative reserves, haven't they? Have net reserves ever been positive? I do not think so.

Milei said he wanted to burn down the Central Bank. He is doing it but burning all the USD inside!

 

[FuturoBA]

But this intervention is one of the things that I have been against Milei. This is the same failed strategies from the past. I liked Milei better when he said the peso was sh*t and he wanted to blow up the Central Bank.

I never understood why he's intervening so heavily and as a libertarian he should let the market decide the peso's value, not the government manipulating it. He probably thinks controlling inflation, however temporary and artificial is more important. The more he does this the more he'll become a politician IMO. I get it sometimes you have to play the game, but it seems this goes against his libertarian principles and what the people voted for.

 

[Larry]

I never understood why he's intervening so heavily and as a libertarian he should let the market decide the peso's value, not the government manipulating it. He probably thinks controlling inflation, however temporary and artificial is more important. The more he does this the more he'll become a politician IMO. I get it sometimes you have to play the game, but it seems this goes against his libertarian principles and what the people voted for.

Lucky for us that hate him that he is a liar. I don't think he will last his entire term. I think the Villaruel will have to take over for him and she will do a better job leading.

 

[GlasgowJohn]

The IMF deal will happen but I hope they don't let them keep burning dollars!


But what do you mean now with negative reserves? They have always had negative reserves, haven't they? Have net reserves ever been positive? I do not think so.

Milei said he wanted to burn down the Central Bank. He is doing it but burning all the USD inside!

With the 20,000 m / 25,000m USD that came into the sytem with the tax amnesty and some extra USD from agro exports , rereves were postive for a short time , but that cash has now been spent

 

[Larry]

With the 20,000 m / 25,000m USD that came into the sytem with the tax amnesty and some extra USD from agro exports , rereves were postive for a short time , but that cash has now been spent

Ok maybe it was positive for a very brief time. But came and went. If they ever manage to lift the cepo all the money will fly out.