Argentina: Inflation Resumes Its Decline, But . . .

[Tango]

Inflation is going down but still high.

INDEC reveals Argentina's 2024 inflation rate: 117.8%

Annual inflation nosedives in boost for Milei; Prices rose 2.7% last month, reports INDEC; Bureau’s data shows inflation fell almost 94 points year-on-year.

batimes.com.ar

 

[Problema]

Inflation is going down but still high.

INDEC reveals Argentina's 2024 inflation rate: 117.8%

Annual inflation nosedives in boost for Milei; Prices rose 2.7% last month, reports INDEC; Bureau’s data shows inflation fell almost 94 points year-on-year.

batimes.com.ar

So Argentina is essentially back to Macri and CFK levels of inflation (25%-50%), yet with none of the perks as inflation refuses to go below 2.5%/month.

So Milei and Caputo destroyed the economy for what? Food/housing to be way out of sync with people's incomes, fake poverty statistics. For things in Argentina to cost more than they do when exported abroad, taxes to be higher than under Alberto and Massa, etc.

I really don't understand the backslapping and self-congratulations because there isn't really anything worth celebrating unless you own stock in YPF or Edesur or banking stocks.

 

[LongIslander]

It is a good thing that inflation is going down but how much of this is real? After all, once the peso is eventually devalued (which everyone agrees it must come down) isn't inflation just going to go back up? After all, who really thinks the value of the peso is real?

I am spending the same in many restaurants that I do back home. I don't think this is sustainable without crashing again. To make it worse the currency controls look like they will go on all year.

 

[Problema]

It is a good thing that inflation is going down but how much of this is real? After all, once the peso is eventually devalued (which everyone agrees it must come down) isn't inflation just going to go back up? After all, who really thinks the value of the peso is real?

I am spending the same in many restaurants that I do back home. I don't think this is sustainable without crashing again. To make it worse the currency controls look like they will go on all year.

Correct. Inflation will probably be at least 30% to 35% this year. What else is left to cut?! Argentina isn't the US. We are a developing country yet our prices are higher than developed nations where people are making 4X more salary.

Utility prices have skyrocketed. Electricity is 500% more. Even this summer with milder temperatures the power goes out because no investments are made in the infrastructure even though they are charging 4X more. Cepo still in place. Taxes have not come down. Imports still have IVA and outrageous shipping charges.

Only people that benefit are the wealthy. They did the blanqueo and got to launder $100,000 bucks tax free. I know people that brought it in and then withdrew it and then deposited the same money for $200,000 bucks tax free. No one can tell me what is better today vs. when Milei started. So yeah inflation came down but some things are 3X more.

 

[earlyretirement]

Food prices in Argentina experienced a significant increase in the third week of January 2025. According to the report by the consulting firm LCG, food prices registered a 0.9% increase during this period. This weekly increase contributed to a total accumulation of 2.6% so far this month.

The upward trend in food prices has accelerated compared to previous weeks. This increase has a direct impact on household economics, affecting consumers' purchasing power. Inflation in the food and beverage sector has notably accelerated during this period. If this trend continues, food inflation for January 2025 could shape up to be the highest in the last six months.

The upward trend in food prices remains a concern for consumers and economic analysts.

 

[Billy Goat]

Food prices in Argentina experienced a significant increase in the third week of January 2025. According to the report by the consulting firm LCG, food prices registered a 0.9% increase during this period. This weekly increase contributed to a total accumulation of 2.6% so far this month.

The upward trend in food prices has accelerated compared to previous weeks. This increase has a direct impact on household economics, affecting consumers' purchasing power. Inflation in the food and beverage sector has notably accelerated during this period. If this trend continues, food inflation for January 2025 could shape up to be the highest in the last six months.

The upward trend in food prices remains a concern for consumers and economic analysts.

No matter what they do they can't seem to get food prices to stop going up. They are struggling to get inflation under 3% a month. And on many things it is going up more than that.

 

[BuySellBA]

🇦🇷Recent data from the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) in Argentina shows the following trends:

Wholesale Prices

🗓️Monthly Increase: In January 2025, wholesale prices rose by 1.5% compared to the previous month, exceeding the 0.8% increase recorded in December 2024.

📈Year-on-Year Increase: The year-on-year increase reached 43.8%, which represents a slowdown compared to the 67.1% of the previous month.

Causes of the Increase: The rise was mainly due to increases in domestic products (1.6%) and imported products (0.5%). Within domestic products, notable increases were in electricity (3.6%), primary products (2.1%), and manufactured goods (1.4%).

Construction Costs

📈Monthly Increase: In January 2025, construction costs increased by 0.9%, below the general CPI and the ICC of December.

📈Year-on-Year Increase: The year-on-year increase was 67.1%, although January saw a slowdown compared to the previous month.

Components of the Increase: The increase was explained by rises of 1.2% in materials and 2.7% in general expenses, while labor costs increased by only 0.2% due to wage agreements.

These figures reflect the current economic dynamics in Argentina, with persistent inflation but signs of slowdown in some sectors.

 

[earlyretirement]

Inflation in some categories continues to be brutally high. More planned increases for March 2025.




Fuel: 3% increase

Rentals (ICL) 149.3% Year-over-year

Private schools in CABA and PBA 6%

Transportation in CABA and PBA 10%

Telecommunications 2.7%

Prepaid health plans 2.2%

 

[Betsy Ross]

Inflation in some categories continues to be brutally high. More planned increases for March 2025.




Fuel: 3% increase

Rentals (ICL) 149.3% Year-over-year

Private schools in CABA and PBA 6%

Transportation in CABA and PBA 10%

Telecommunications 2.7%

Prepaid health plans 2.2%

Wow another 6% increase in tuition. I wonder at what point it becomes a breaking point for people. Prices just keep going up. Most of my friends are complaining about the fees continuing to escalate.

 

[Larry]

Inflation in some categories continues to be brutally high. More planned increases for March 2025.




Fuel: 3% increase

Rentals (ICL) 149.3% Year-over-year

Private schools in CABA and PBA 6%

Transportation in CABA and PBA 10%

Telecommunications 2.7%

Prepaid health plans 2.2%

Transportation going up 10% is crazy. They are breaking the backs of the working class. Eventually people are going to revolt.

 

[Wally]

Inflation in some categories continues to be brutally high. More planned increases for March 2025.




Fuel: 3% increase

Rentals (ICL) 149.3% Year-over-year

Private schools in CABA and PBA 6%

Transportation in CABA and PBA 10%

Telecommunications 2.7%

Prepaid health plans 2.2%

I can attest to the tuition increases being tough to swallow. They just keep going up. Every 2/3 months they keep going up. No end in sight.

 

[earlyretirement]

Yes, inflation has slowed down but it's important to note that it continues to go up. This kind of inflation in any normal country would be considered shocking.


Private consulting firms have projected various estimates for February 2025 inflation in Argentina, with figures ranging from 1.9% to 2.7%.

These projections suggest that inflation could be equal to or higher than that recorded in January (2.2%), indicating that the government's goal of breaking the 2% floor has not yet been achieved.


Projections by consulting firm

C&T: 1.9%
OJF & Associates: 2%
L&P: 2.3%
Analytica: 2.4%
Equilibra: 2.4%
Eco Go: 2.7%



The inflationary dynamics of February were marked by contrasting behaviors:


Food and beverages: A significant increase was observed, especially in beef, with increases between 7% and 15%.


Tourism: Components related to this sector showed a downward trend.


Other categories: Increases were recorded in dairy products, beverages, and public utility rates.


The increase in meat prices is particularly relevant due to its strong impact on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), representing almost 7% of the total weight of the basket in Greater Buenos Aires and exceeding 13% in some regions of the interior.

Despite these increases, the government maintains the expectation that the effect will be temporary and that the decreasing trend in inflation will persist in the coming months. This expectation is based in part on the reduction of the official dollar devaluation rate from 2% to 1% implemented by the Central Bank in early February.


It is important to note that these projections are preliminary and subject to modifications until INDEC publishes the official data in mid-March.

 

[Blockchain]

Food and beverages: A significant increase was observed, especially in beef, with increases between 7% and 15%.

Price gouging plain and simple. How can prices jump up so much? BS excuses. I thought inflation was going down? It doesn't make sense to me that some things made in Argentina can be so expensive compared to other places. I'm not talking about things that are imported. Talking about stuff from Argentina.

If they couldn't be competitive with all the subsidies I doubt they can be competitive with subsidies lifted. Seems like the local industries are going to get decimated by imported products.

 

[Finance Prof]

Price gouging plain and simple. How can prices jump up so much? BS excuses. I thought inflation was going down? It doesn't make sense to me that some things made in Argentina can be so expensive compared to other places. I'm not talking about things that are imported. Talking about stuff from Argentina.

If they couldn't be competitive with all the subsidies I doubt they can be competitive with subsidies lifted. Seems like the local industries are going to get decimated by imported products.

Hopefully all the import taxes continue to go down. In the past these local companies didn't have to be competitive because the taxes are so high on imported stuff and the greedy local companies just screwed over consumers and kept prices high. They charged as much as possible. And still do.

 

[Piranha]

Inflation in some categories continues to be brutally high. More planned increases for March 2025.




Fuel: 3% increase

Rentals (ICL) 149.3% Year-over-year

Private schools in CABA and PBA 6%

Transportation in CABA and PBA 10%

Telecommunications 2.7%

Prepaid health plans 2.2%

Why do private school tuition prices keep going up? Are teachers salaries going up that much? I know someone that teaches at a school and she got a raise but not like we are seeing each month or two. What goes into these increases?

Hopefully all the import taxes continue to go down. In the past these local companies didn't have to be competitive because the taxes are so high on imported stuff and the greedy local companies just screwed over consumers and kept prices high. They charged as much as possible. And still do.

All the good stuff is going to other countries. These companies claim protectionism and national pride and other non-sense but they are out to screw the consumer and get rich doing it. Look at various produce that are grown here. Lemons are one example. They will leave the poor quality for the local market and export them to other countries. Except they try to price the junk for higher grade that you will find abroad. Even higher.

Go to a cafe and you can get some pastry and it will be 7000 to 8000 pesos. How can they charge those prices? And what is with having so many employees at small establishments? Many times I will go into a cafe or shop and there will be 6 or 7 employees. All doing nothing. I noticed this in restaurants too. Way too many people that are needed. I am beginning to think some of these places are not trying to make money.