IMF Agreement: The Government Will Send a DNU to Congress to Obtain Support

[earlyretirement]

I would guess if the IMF did not end up giving the more fresh funds Argentina is in trouble and Milei would probably be toast. The turmoil by his friend Trump couldn't have come at a worse time for Milei!

Agree the timing of this is not good for Argentina. I saw this news this morning. I do not know if it is true or not but if so very bad news.

"In addition, the White House Special Envoy for Latin America Mauricio Claver-Carone announced that the United States' support to the Libertarian administration before the IMF would hinge on Buenos Aires cutting all ties with Beijing, specifically the currency swap agreement brokered during the previous Government of Alberto Fernández and extended during the current one.Despite Milei’s ideological shift away from Beijing, China remains a vital economic partner for Argentina—its second-largest trading partner after Brazil—and is heavily involved in sectors like infrastructure, energy, and telecommunications. Ending the swap would require Argentina to repay a large sum it currently lacks.“I am not going to interfere in the middle of the negotiations that are taking place with the IMF, which we want to be successful,” Claver Carone was quoted as saying. “What we do want is that eventually the famous credit line that Argentina has with China ends,” he added.In the meantime, consensus has been reported to be absent among the IMF's board on an advance disbursement, despite positive remarks from Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.

Advancing money to Argentina, a practice known as frontloading, generates controversy because any financing for the country before its next principal payment to the IMF would be considered fresh funds, which would increase the multilateral's exposure to the nation, it was explained.This week's rejection by the Senate of Milei's two Supreme Court nominees, coupled with his rift with Vice President Victoria Villarruel and treason charges for his April 2 Malvinas/Falklands speech, portray a declining head of State badly in need of funding to keep his administration going."

Claver-Carone and the USA's insistence for Argentina to end all ties with China are ridiculous. Argentina needs China more than ever. China is more of an essential partner and Milei already goofed up at the beginning of his term distancing himself from China. If the IMF funds don't come though, Milei is going to be in a terrible situation.

Argentine financial markets record setback after Milei's failed mission

Argentine financial markets experienced a sharp decline Friday amid the global economic storm triggered by a trade war between the U.S. and China following President Donald Trump’s tariffs spree. The market downturn, compounded by a nearly 7% drop in oil prices and a 10-year U.S. rate at 3.87%...

en.mercopress.com

 

[Uncle Wong]

Agree the timing of this is not good for Argentina. I saw this news this morning. I do not know if it is true or not but if so very bad news.

"In addition, the White House Special Envoy for Latin America Mauricio Claver-Carone announced that the United States' support to the Libertarian administration before the IMF would hinge on Buenos Aires cutting all ties with Beijing, specifically the currency swap agreement brokered during the previous Government of Alberto Fernández and extended during the current one.Despite Milei’s ideological shift away from Beijing, China remains a vital economic partner for Argentina—its second-largest trading partner after Brazil—and is heavily involved in sectors like infrastructure, energy, and telecommunications. Ending the swap would require Argentina to repay a large sum it currently lacks.“I am not going to interfere in the middle of the negotiations that are taking place with the IMF, which we want to be successful,” Claver Carone was quoted as saying. “What we do want is that eventually the famous credit line that Argentina has with China ends,” he added.In the meantime, consensus has been reported to be absent among the IMF's board on an advance disbursement, despite positive remarks from Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.

Advancing money to Argentina, a practice known as frontloading, generates controversy because any financing for the country before its next principal payment to the IMF would be considered fresh funds, which would increase the multilateral's exposure to the nation, it was explained.This week's rejection by the Senate of Milei's two Supreme Court nominees, coupled with his rift with Vice President Victoria Villarruel and treason charges for his April 2 Malvinas/Falklands speech, portray a declining head of State badly in need of funding to keep his administration going."

Claver-Carone and the USA's insistence for Argentina to end all ties with China are ridiculous. Argentina needs China more than ever. China is more of an essential partner and Milei already goofed up at the beginning of his term distancing himself from China. If the IMF funds don't come though, Milei is going to be in a terrible situation.

Argentine financial markets record setback after Milei's failed mission

Argentine financial markets experienced a sharp decline Friday amid the global economic storm triggered by a trade war between the U.S. and China following President Donald Trump’s tariffs spree. The market downturn, compounded by a nearly 7% drop in oil prices and a 10-year U.S. rate at 3.87%...

en.mercopress.com

I wondered if this tariff war would drag Argentina into blows with China. Isn't the trade swap with China $5 billion dollars? Are they saying they would need to use IMF funds to get rid of that? It seems like the more time the IMF loan doesn't come through the worse chances it will come with conditions that would work for Argentina.

 

[TonyTigre]

Just making numbers up, but which option is better for Argentina?
1. Another $15 billion loan from IMF
or
2. Another $10 loan from IMF and keep the $5 billion from China

Even if you think both options are not good, which is better of the two?

 

[Betsy Ross]

Just making numbers up, but which option is better for Argentina?
1. Another $15 billion loan from IMF
or
2. Another $10 loan from IMF and keep the $5 billion from China

Even if you think both options are not good, which is better of the two?

But does it make sense getting further and further away from a good relationship with China considering all the business Argentina does with China? Who needs the other more? I would say Argentina needs China more than the other way around. @TonyTigre do you not agree that it would be best for Argentina to have a good relationship with China?

 

[lemonade]

Just making numbers up, but which option is better for Argentina?
1. Another $15 billion loan from IMF
or
2. Another $10 loan from IMF and keep the $5 billion from China

Even if you think both options are not good, which is better of the two?

Argentina has NO other options besides the IMF. Honestly if the funds don't come through they are screwed. Does anyone disagree with this?

 

[Jeep]

Agree the timing of this is not good for Argentina. I saw this news this morning. I do not know if it is true or not but if so very bad news.

"In addition, the White House Special Envoy for Latin America Mauricio Claver-Carone announced that the United States' support to the Libertarian administration before the IMF would hinge on Buenos Aires cutting all ties with Beijing, specifically the currency swap agreement brokered during the previous Government of Alberto Fernández and extended during the current one.Despite Milei’s ideological shift away from Beijing, China remains a vital economic partner for Argentina—its second-largest trading partner after Brazil—and is heavily involved in sectors like infrastructure, energy, and telecommunications. Ending the swap would require Argentina to repay a large sum it currently lacks.“I am not going to interfere in the middle of the negotiations that are taking place with the IMF, which we want to be successful,” Claver Carone was quoted as saying. “What we do want is that eventually the famous credit line that Argentina has with China ends,” he added.In the meantime, consensus has been reported to be absent among the IMF's board on an advance disbursement, despite positive remarks from Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.

Advancing money to Argentina, a practice known as frontloading, generates controversy because any financing for the country before its next principal payment to the IMF would be considered fresh funds, which would increase the multilateral's exposure to the nation, it was explained.This week's rejection by the Senate of Milei's two Supreme Court nominees, coupled with his rift with Vice President Victoria Villarruel and treason charges for his April 2 Malvinas/Falklands speech, portray a declining head of State badly in need of funding to keep his administration going."

Claver-Carone and the USA's insistence for Argentina to end all ties with China are ridiculous. Argentina needs China more than ever. China is more of an essential partner and Milei already goofed up at the beginning of his term distancing himself from China. If the IMF funds don't come though, Milei is going to be in a terrible situation.

Argentine financial markets record setback after Milei's failed mission

Argentine financial markets experienced a sharp decline Friday amid the global economic storm triggered by a trade war between the U.S. and China following President Donald Trump’s tariffs spree. The market downturn, compounded by a nearly 7% drop in oil prices and a 10-year U.S. rate at 3.87%...

en.mercopress.com

Wow terrible for Argentina. That is why I never believe Caputo or Milei when they say they are so close to a deal every day. They have been saying that for a year. Obviously there are huge differences still. And with the stunt Trump pulled to all these nations with tariffs, they might not really care what Trump wants them to do with IMF vote. US only has 16% of the IMF vote so many other countries may just vote against it to say FU to Trump. Milei might learn that it may not just want to tie itself around the USA and Trump.

 

[TonyTigre]

China and the US do not need Argentina, but both of them actually want to have a good relationship with Argentina for strategic reasons. Let's be clear, neither one of them will want to walk away from Argentina. Just consider what Milei has said about China and what the IMF was willing to lend to Argentina in the past. Did China walk away? Isn't the IMF talking about lending Argentina even more money?

Now that we have established that both China and the US want a good relationship with Argentina, it is of course also in Argentina's interest to be in a good relationship with both of them. Ideally, Argentina would have China and the US competing with each other to offer something Argentina wants or needs. Have you all forgotten that people here consider the $5 billion currency swap as China doing Argentina a favor? Well, if Argentina no longer needs that $5 billion from China, that means China would need something else to entice Argentina to remain in a good relationship with them. Surely China doesn't want the US to push them out after all that effort and investment. As long as Milei doesn't say Taiwan isn't part of China (something even the US won't say), China will not walk away and they would not vote against Argentina in the IMF.

The last thing the other countries need right now is for Trump to even question whether the IMF is an organization the US should remain part of. So the idea of other IMF members using it as a way to say FU to Trump is far-fetched.

 

[earlyretirement]

China and the US do not need Argentina, but both of them actually want to have a good relationship with Argentina for strategic reasons. Let's be clear, neither one of them will want to walk away from Argentina. Just consider what Milei has said about China and what the IMF was willing to lend to Argentina in the past. Did China walk away? Isn't the IMF talking about lending Argentina even more money?

Now that we have established that both China and the US want a good relationship with Argentina, it is of course also in Argentina's interest to be in a good relationship with both of them. Ideally, Argentina would have China and the US competing with each other to offer something Argentina wants or needs. Have you all forgotten that people here consider the $5 billion currency swap as China doing Argentina a favor? Well, if Argentina no longer needs that $5 billion from China, that means China would need something else to entice Argentina to remain in a good relationship with them. Surely China doesn't want the US to push them out after all that effort and investment. As long as Milei doesn't say Taiwan isn't part of China (something even the US won't say), China will not walk away and they would not vote against Argentina in the IMF.

The last thing the other countries need right now is for Trump to even question whether the IMF is an organization the US should remain part of. So the idea of other IMF members using it as a way to say FU to Trump is far-fetched.

I agree that Argentina should keep a good relationship with both China and the USA. Sometimes I think his love for the USA and Trump blinds him. Hopefully he doesn't make bad decisions in this regard.

 

[old fart]

The last thing the other countries need right now is for Trump to even question whether the IMF is an organization the US should remain part of. So the idea of other IMF members using it as a way to say FU to Trump is far-fetched.

But what do the other member nations of the IMF get out of Argentina? Why should they keep giving Argentina more debt? I get rolling over what they already owe and extending it but giving more money is kind of like giving more booze to an alcoholic. Sounds like they would just blow it on currency intervention which would be a waste.

I think it is probably good to just let them sweat it out.

 

[TonyTigre]

@old fart, If Argentina collapses, how would it impact countries that trade with it, especially those that export to Argentina. How would the impacted countries affect their own trading partners? "Contagion" is the word. How much does it actually cost the individual IMF members relative to the cost associated with Argentina collapsing? Also keep in mind that it's a loan, not a gift.

 

[old fart]

@old fart, If Argentina collapses, how would it impact countries that trade with it, especially those that export to Argentina. How would the impacted countries affect their own trading partners? "Contagion" is the word. How much does it actually cost the individual IMF members relative to the cost associated with Argentina collapsing? Also keep in mind that it's a loan, not a gift.

Sorry Argentina is complete toast! Did you see the Asian markets. Argentina will never be able to return to the capital markets any time soon. Whatever small glimmer of hopes it has Trump killed. Love live the USD.